Top 10 Fantasy Running Backs

One cardinal rule to remember about running backs is that the quality of the Offensive Line can directly determine the quality of the back. Obviously, that is not always true, but more often than not a running back will not be able to overcome poor blocking on a consistent basis. And that's what we're looking for here: Consistency.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN - Peterson has thrived the past few years with some stellar years based solely on talent. He's got no semblance of a passing game to open the field up for him, and defenses know he's coming, but still they can't stop him. If Sage Rosenfels can take some pressure off of him, we could see an even bigger year from AP. He's a bit of an injury risk, but still more than worthy of your top pick.
Projection: 1,8oo total yards, 14 TDs.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC - Probably your best bet as a top pick in PPR leagues because he catches a ton of balls. Jones-Drew finally has the starting job all to himself and I'm guessing he goes nuts with all the carries. If David Garrard can avoid turnovers like he did in 2007, my guess is that MJD can carry for over 1,200 yards and get more than 600 yards receiving.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 16 TDs

3. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD - I don't buy that LT is done. Past his prime? Maybe. But definitely not done. The great thing about LT is that even in a "down" year like last year where he endured injuries, he still rushed for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. You can't miss if you take him, in my opinion, but just to be safe, target his backup (Darren Sproles) or make sure you have at least three high-quality options at running back, because he's more of an injury risk now than ever before. If you're in a PPR league, he's gotta be in your top 2 running backs off the board.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs

4. Chris Johnson, TEN - He's probably the number one pick if your league counts bonus points for plays over 20 yards, but regardless CJ is interesting. He produced almost 1,500 total yards last year rushing and receiving, caught 43 balls, and scored 10 combined TDs. LenDale White's presence would seem to diminish his value, and I recommend handcuffing him very early... But because Tennessee has among the best line's in football and can string out defenses with Nate Washington, this year could be even better for Chris Johnson.
Projection: 1,700 total yards, 10 TDs.

5. Michael Turner, ATL - This is a running back that, in spite of his outstanding numbers last year, I'm going to avoid in the first round. I love what he did last year. He'll probably do great again this year. But I have my doubts about his durability, and the fact that he amassed 376 carries last year doesn't help my fears. He played like a horse and in all situations. But TDs fluctuate more than anything in fantasy football (I call it the "Thomas Jones Rule"), so you can't rely on him scoring 17 TDs again. Definitely easy to wait on him until late in the first round in PPR leagues, though with only 6 catches last year. Still probably a top 5 back, but I don't like taking health risks with my first round pick.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs.

6. DeAngelo Williams, CAR - The D-train carries the most intrigue of any fantasy running back this year. Can he repeat his 2008 season? The answer is: not likely. But, he'll still be a productive and hopefully consistent back. Three things I love about Williams and his situation: 1. He's in a timeshare. What? Yes, I believe it will keep him fresh and he'll be able to run without much difficulty in the playoff weeks because he's not getting strained in the opening weeks. 2. He gets yards. Thomas Jones Rule, again. 3. Steve Smith. A dynamic receiver and a deep threat makes Carolina's offense all the more dangerous. Teams sell out to stop Smith, leaving room to run for Williams.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 12 TDs.

7. Matt Forte, CHI - I read somewhere that drafting Forte was more about drafting someone with a "high floor" than someone with a "high ceiling." It's an interesting take on it. In PPR leagues, Forte is a top 3 back. Maybe even better than that, as he had more catches than any other RB last year. What will the addition of Jay Cutler do to Forte's production? Maybe not much will change, that's my bet, anyway. Cutler likes to chuck it downfield, so Forte probably loses some of the dump-offs that he got from Orton, but he's still the featured back with no real threat to steal red-zone carries. No, he's not flashy, but he's got a "high floor" meaning he's never really going to kill you.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 8 TDs.

8. Steve Slaton, HOU - Houston has a potentially great fantasy offense. I say "potentially" because so many of their guys are injury-prone. Slaton seems to be the exception. He gashed a few good defenses last year and continued to be relevant well into the last week of the playoffs. He will probably continue to have a solid career and as long as he has the starting gig and the offense stays healthy (the Andre Johnson Rule), he'll continue to put up good numbers. He's probably the 3rd or 4th back off the board in PPR leagues.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 11 TDs.

9. Pierre Thomas, NO - In a pass-happy offense, do you really want the running back that isn't Reggie Bush? Yes. Maybe let some other RBs go before you take him. He's still fairly low-profile, so you'll still have an excellent chance to get him in the second round if you take a Larry Fitzgerald-type in the first round. He's versatile, he plays on a fast track in a good offense, and he's got a quarterback that spreads the field so he gets room. He also played VERY well in the playoff weeks last year. He was a focal point of the offense late in the year, so he should be featured early this year. A good guy to get if you go with an elite receiver in the first round.
Projection: 1,300 total yards, 14 TDs

10. Frank Gore, SF - I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about his stats this year, though. I think it's mainly Michael Crabtree's fault. Who else have they got that's a legit playmaker? No one. No matter who wins the QB job, Gore will still be the center of the offense. He should get around 320-350 carries this year, barring health concerns, which translates to a very good fantasy season for any NFL back. Take him late in the first round and forget about him.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 9 TDs.

So that's it. I purposely left off some of the talented RBs that have had some injury concerns (Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, both top 10 talents, but perpetually injured). In my experience, I'd rather not worry about when a guy is going to get hurt and instead rely on consistent production from the stars I can field every week with great results.