Saturday, August 15, 2009

Top 10 Fantasy Quarterbacks

Please, keep in mind that I'm not guaranteeing this will be the top 10 scoring quarterbacks this season, but just those who I feel have the best chance to produce.

1. Drew Brees, NO - Brees was a consistency king last year and if Marques Colston and Reggie Bush stay healthy all year, he should continue to produce. He's got a good (not great) offensive line, an AWFUL defense behind him and a coach who isn't afraid to let him throw a lot.
Projection: 4,400 yards, 38 TDs, 22 Turnovers.

2. Tom Brady, NE - The knee issues aside, he's got it all. An All-World receiver in Randy Moss, a horrible running game that forces him to keep throwing, an offensive line that keeps him fairly well-protected and a defense that is more than capable of causing turnovers, allowing him more opportunities. The addition of Joey Galloway probably doesn't hurt his value, either.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 30 TDs, 10 Turnovers.

3. Peyton Manning, IND - He's human?! No, I still don't buy that. He is freakishly good. It's his supporting cast that has me a little worried. Losing Marvin Harrison is a bigger deal than everyone is talking about, and Dallas Clark will have to become a bigger part of the offense (provided he can stay healthy). I could definitely see the coaching staff sticking to a ground game much more than Tony Dungy did, too. I hope not, though because Peyton is the best of the best when he chucks the pigskin to everyone in a matching jersey.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 28 TDs, 11 Turnovers.

4. Kurt Warner, ARI - What a fantastic campaign last year! Age is always a concern with him, but when your team sports the BEST trio of receivers in the league, and you have a quick release, you tend to make up for your age. The presence of Larry Fitzgerald (barring a Madden-Cursed year) alone makes Warner a dangerous and consistent player, but the fact that the running game has struggled so much in recent years and shows no signs of getting better means that Warner should continue his arial assault on the NFL's pass defenses. He's still somewhat turnover-prone, though, but his numbers are so gaudy it covers up the turnovers well.
Projection: 4,300 yards, 31 TDs, 24 Turnovers.

5. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Surprised? Don't be. Rodgers showed he's the real deal and he's still got a receiving corps that's fairly underrated. Plus, he gets to face the Lions twice. His value will probably fall slightly when the weather turns nasty in Green Bay, and he may yield some scores to RB Ryan Grant, who barely sniffed the end zone last season. Rodgers also showed some decent wheels with a fair amount of rush yards (it's a bonus!) and a few rushing TDs.
Projection: 3,800 yards, 27 TDs, 18 Turnovers.

6. Philip Rivers, SD - Things to love about Rivers: 1. He's motivated to win (Eli and Ben already have 3 combined Super Bowls), 2. He's got great weapons (Gates, LT, Sproles, and the emerging Vincent Jackson), 3. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and is hot-headed. Things to hate about Rivers: 1. LT is still LT, no matter what anyone tells you, 2. Norv Turner is still Norv Turner, and 3. For a dude that's been around so long, he's still fairly immature in terms of his behavior. Still, I think he takes a few steps forward this year as LT ages and Rivers takes control.
Projection: 3,700 yards, 26 TDs, 18 Turnovers.

7. Matt Schaub, HOU - Andre Johnson is healthy? Schaub is healthy? If your answer is yes, you've got a very good combination and a quarterback that can establish himself (finally!) this year. Now, taking Schaub remains a big risk because of his injury history, but after the top tier of quarterbacks are gone, Schaub has the biggest bullet in the chamber with Johnson. Don't forget that he's got a defense that gives up some points, too, in spite of being slightly improved.
Projection: 3,400 yards, 26 TDs, 20 Turnovers.

8. Tony Romo, DAL - Weird situation for Romo, isn't it? He's a very good quarterback (or so we're told) and he's put up some excellent numbers in the past. Terrell Owens is gone, which means less distraction, but is Roy Williams a good enough replacement? Also, there are three very good running backs crowded into the backfield with Romo, likely meaning that he'll throw less this year. He's got a good supporting cast, but he's got no excuse if he's lousy this year.
Projection: 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 21 Turnovers.

9. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - This is probably one of the few places you'll see Big Ben listed so high. No, it's not because I'm a Pittsburgh homer. The dude is just plain good. The running attack is fairly lousy in Pittsburgh lately and the receivers, especially Holmes and rookie Mike Wallace are capable of stretching defenses. His offensive line is potentially detrimental to his health and numbers, but he'll probably need to be the offense for the Steelers and, as usual, he'll deliver.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 22 TDs, 17 Turnovers.

10. Matt Ryan, ATL - I hope he avoids the sophomore slump. Roddy White has proven to be probably the third most-valuable receiver in the league and his mere presence opens the door for Atlanta's offense. Plus, if defenses are too preoccupied trying to stop Michale Turner, Ryan has a great play-action move that opens up the offense even more. His defense is fairly lousy, so expect top-10 numbers from him this year.
Projection: 3,300 yards, 21 TDs, 20 Turnovers.

So that's my top 10 QBs. There are some names that are conspicuous in their absence, so feel free to start the debate!

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