Sunday, August 30, 2009

Draft Strategy: After the Studs

If I've learned anything from the countless hours I've spent searching the internet for mock drafts and participating in a few of my own, I can tell you that there is value to be had late in the draft.

Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.

Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.

One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?

Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.

Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.

In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.

But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.

When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).

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