Injury news is important in the NFL, but it's value might be TRIPLED in fantasy.
Here's a few recent training camp injuries and some spin about what you might need to do if it affects your team.
INJURY: Matt Cassel, QB, KC - I haven't mentioned it, but I tend to have a curse that rivals that of a recently retired broadcaster. It only applies to QBs, though. Dante Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tom Brady, the list goes on and on... If I own them, something dreadful happens (injury, poor play, etc). Such is the case with Cassel, who went down on Thursday night with an ankle injury.
SPIN: The injury is expected to keep him out for 2-4 weeks, and he'll likely miss the Week 1 opener against Baltimore, if not more. You probably weren't going to expect much against the Ravens, but it's time to seek other options for week one (and potentially longer).
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INJURY: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs injured his arm in Saturday night's game against the Jets, further affirming his reputation as an injury-prone risk at RB.
SPIN: The X-Rays were negative, but when Jacobs returned to the game, he promptly fumbled. This is not a good sign, but nothing to panic over. Make sure you move to acquire Ahmad Bradshaw if you don't already have him on your bench as he would likely receive the bulk of the work if Jacobs proves ineffective or aggravates the injury.
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INJURY: Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Schaub (another QB I own, currently) hurt his ankle while running for a first down Monday night against Minnesota.
SPIN: Schaub has yet to shed the "injury prone" tag and this certainly won't help. He appeared willing to play through the pain and completed 2 passes after returning to the game with the ankle taped. Check back on Tuesday, though, to make sure this injury isn't worse. Losing Schaub would greatly decrease the value of his receivers, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels, although it may not have any affect on RB Steve Slaton's value.
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INJURY: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Speaking of Walter, he left the game Monday night with a hamstring injury.
SPIN: Hopefully this isn't going to be a lingering concern for Walter, who had somewhat of a breakout season last year. He won't play next week (as is the case for most starters in the last preseason game) so check his status before you activate him for Week 1. If he doesn't practice leading up to the game, chances are he won't play, or won't play well. If you have other options, they might be wise.
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INJURY: Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Stewart has missed the entire preseason with an Achilles injury.
SPIN: Stewart had an injury stigma attached to him out of college, but that was basically eliminated after last season. If he's not able to go, DeAngelo Williams' value rises considerably, but there are more than enough carries to support both backs. As long as you weren't relying on Stewart as a number 2 back in your league, you should have some time to wait as Stewart rests and heals.
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INJURY: Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Berrian did not play in Monday night's preseason game in Houston with an aggravated hamstring.
SPIN: This should come as no surprise to Berrian owners. He has been out of practice lately, but appears to be targeting week 1 as his return to action. Keep tabs on him, but don't expect too much of a drop off from the inconsistent results you'd normally get from Berrian.
More Spin-juries to come.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Draft Strategy: After the Studs
If I've learned anything from the countless hours I've spent searching the internet for mock drafts and participating in a few of my own, I can tell you that there is value to be had late in the draft.
Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.
Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.
One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?
Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.
Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.
In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.
But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.
When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).
Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.
Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.
One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?
Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.
Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.
In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.
But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.
When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).
Thursday, August 27, 2009
FFFL6 Trade
There has been a trade in FFFL6 involving FabFour and Los Diablos Gatos (Me):
FabFour receives:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC
LenDale White, RB, TEN
Los Diablos Gatos receives:
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
BREAKDOWN
FabFour Receives:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC - FabFour enjoyed Cassel's services in last year's FFFL, and clearly would like to have him again. He should have a good year throwing the football to Dwayne Bowe and new wideout Amani Toomer in KC's new spread offense (something like Arizona last year). FabFour's other QB is Jake Delhomme, who is looking for a bounce-back year in Carolina, but is more than capable of being a fantasy starter.
LenDale White, RB, TEN - The TD vulture himself. LenDale has trimmed down a bit, but should still be a solid option at runningback. He's very similar to Brandon Jacobs in terms of stats, he scores a lot, but his production can be kind of inconsistent, blowing up one game while being almost absent in the next. That having been said, he'd become invaluable should Chris Johnson get injured, as he'd probably play in most, if not all, situations.
Los Diablos Gatos Receives:
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - I coveted Schaub from the start, thinking that if he manages to stay healthy, he'll have a productive season throwing to my number one receiver, Andre Johnson, and my number three receiver, Kevin Walter. Needless to say, I'm putting a lot of stock into Houston's offense this season. Although, it scares me that I'm relying on the Andre Johnson rule to win this year.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs is not a number one running back in a PPR league. He just doesn't catch many passes. But, he's now lost one of his wingmen in Derrick Ward and may get even more opportunities now that Plaxico Burress is in jail and he'll be relied on more in the offense. It could be a breakout year for the punishing back and 1,300 yards and 18 TDs seems like a real possibility to me. Of course, without Burress, it's possible that teams focus more on the running game and limit Jacobs' production, too. Time will tell, but regardless, he's a better bet than LenDale, week to week.
ANALYSIS
FabFour gets better at QB while Los Diablos Gatos gets better at RB. The difference is only slight, but since FabFour wasn't around to pick his players at the online draft, this gives him some amount of control over his team. Both teams end up fixing their problems, but let me know who you think won this trade?
FabFour receives:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC
LenDale White, RB, TEN
Los Diablos Gatos receives:
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
BREAKDOWN
FabFour Receives:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC - FabFour enjoyed Cassel's services in last year's FFFL, and clearly would like to have him again. He should have a good year throwing the football to Dwayne Bowe and new wideout Amani Toomer in KC's new spread offense (something like Arizona last year). FabFour's other QB is Jake Delhomme, who is looking for a bounce-back year in Carolina, but is more than capable of being a fantasy starter.
LenDale White, RB, TEN - The TD vulture himself. LenDale has trimmed down a bit, but should still be a solid option at runningback. He's very similar to Brandon Jacobs in terms of stats, he scores a lot, but his production can be kind of inconsistent, blowing up one game while being almost absent in the next. That having been said, he'd become invaluable should Chris Johnson get injured, as he'd probably play in most, if not all, situations.
Los Diablos Gatos Receives:
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - I coveted Schaub from the start, thinking that if he manages to stay healthy, he'll have a productive season throwing to my number one receiver, Andre Johnson, and my number three receiver, Kevin Walter. Needless to say, I'm putting a lot of stock into Houston's offense this season. Although, it scares me that I'm relying on the Andre Johnson rule to win this year.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs is not a number one running back in a PPR league. He just doesn't catch many passes. But, he's now lost one of his wingmen in Derrick Ward and may get even more opportunities now that Plaxico Burress is in jail and he'll be relied on more in the offense. It could be a breakout year for the punishing back and 1,300 yards and 18 TDs seems like a real possibility to me. Of course, without Burress, it's possible that teams focus more on the running game and limit Jacobs' production, too. Time will tell, but regardless, he's a better bet than LenDale, week to week.
ANALYSIS
FabFour gets better at QB while Los Diablos Gatos gets better at RB. The difference is only slight, but since FabFour wasn't around to pick his players at the online draft, this gives him some amount of control over his team. Both teams end up fixing their problems, but let me know who you think won this trade?
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
FFFL Draft Analysis, Part Deux
My Individual Draft Analysis:
1. (11) Andre Johnson - I love Andre Johnson, but he always seems to get hurt when I own him. He'll have another solid-spectacular year with over 100 catches, barring an injury.
2. (14) Chris Johnson - There's a part of me that regrets this pick, but he catches balls and should get better in his second year, and Michael Silver claims that he'll be the second best back in football this year. Here's hoping... plus, he was my 4th-ranked RB in the predraft and fell to me in the second round, I couldn't really pass him up.
3. (35) Tony Gonzalez - I was hoping for Anquan Boldin to drop to me, but alas, he was taken one pick before I could get him. There was a big dropoff at receiver after Boldin, so I went with Gonzo against my own advice, and I'll either trade him or hope he does great things for me. I've never really had a great pass-catching TE before, so hopefully he helps my team.
4. (38) Dwayne Bowe - With Bowe, I now have 3 big-target receivers who also score some TDs. Hopefully Bowe has a "breakout" season in his third year, and a 90-catch, 1200 yard season would make me VERY happy. That's a bit inflated from my rankings, but I believe in Bowe.
5. (59) Derrick Ward - I didn't figure out how long it would be before I picked again, and at this point, I'm very thin on RBs. Ward could be a very good steal (for whatever reason I like Tampa's running game every year) if he produces like he did in New York and manages to hold off Earnest Graham as a TD vulture.
6. (62) LenDale White - I got kicked off my computer (why does that always happen in crunch time?) midway through the sixth round and barely got back with 5 seconds left to pick. White ended up as an auto-pick, and I probably would have gone with Willie Parker, or Anthony Gonzalez, who both got picked later in the sixth round. But I guess I'm backing up my stud RB in case of an injury. Bit early to do that, though.
7. (83) Matt Cassel - I was hoping one of the "Matt's" would fall to me (Schaub got taken in the 6th round, Ryan in the 7th before me) so Cassel became the pick. I absolutely HATE his early season schedule, but he'll probably be throwing early and often in KC's spread offense, and I'll love it every time he connects with Bowe, which will hopefully be early and often this year. For waiting on a QB, I could have done much, much worse.
8. (86) Kevin Walter - Baltimore's defense was sitting there begging me to pick them, but I just don't believe in them as much as I thought I would, so I kept with the PPR spirit and took Walter as my third receiver. I don't like that he's on the same team with Andre Johnson, but he showed promise last year with almost 900 yards and 60 catches along with some of the TDs that Johnson missed out on. Hopefully they can share the targets and catches somewhat equally this season.
9. (107) Fred Jackson - After another insanely long wait, I decided on Jackson. It seemed a bit early to go after him, but the team at the turn had already claimed Marshawn Lynch, so his handcuff might have been gone if I'd waited. Jackson also is a decent PPR RB, which means that if one of my main two aren't working out, Jackson could be a nice early plug-in play.
10. (110) New York Jets Defense - Yuck? I don't think so. Darrell Revis is a player, so is Bart Scott, so are a bunch of others on the Jets. It's not the best defense in fantasy football, but it's got a bit more punch with Rex Ryan and Bart Scott. At least in the early going, I love the potential of the Jets D.
11. (131) Nate Washington - For whatever reason, I'm bullish on Nate the Great. He's got a hammy injury now, but I think he'll be okay down the line. Once it gets to round 11, you're drafting sleepers anyway, so why not try for a potentially explosive receiver who has some height and speed? I probably will wait to start him and see how he's looking before I commit to him long-term.
12. (134) Percy Harvin - I have Harvin in two leagues now, getting him at pick 134 each time. Peter King recently published a list of his top rookies that had impressed him so far. Harvin's name was at the top. That gives me even more hope that this do-it-all rookie will do great things for me and/or become great trade bait.
13. (155) Chris Henry - This guy is a high-upside, low-risk pick for me, which is exactly what you're supposed to be drafting late in the 13th round. I could easily see him cracking my starting lineup within 3-4 weeks. I could also see him bagging groceries at the local supermarket or behind bars within 3-4 weeks. If he lives up to his potential, he's a steal.
14. (158) Trent Edwards - If you're throwing to T.O., you can have some great results. Tony Romo was a stud for a while, as was Donovan McNabb. Funny thing about it was that each stop he's made, his QB has been a stud in the first year or two of T.O.'s presence, then fallen off later. The 14th round has been very kind to me in the past, and I expect Edwards to emerge as a top-notch backup, if not high-quality starter by week 6.
15. (179) Nate Kaeding - A kicker.
1. (11) Andre Johnson - I love Andre Johnson, but he always seems to get hurt when I own him. He'll have another solid-spectacular year with over 100 catches, barring an injury.
2. (14) Chris Johnson - There's a part of me that regrets this pick, but he catches balls and should get better in his second year, and Michael Silver claims that he'll be the second best back in football this year. Here's hoping... plus, he was my 4th-ranked RB in the predraft and fell to me in the second round, I couldn't really pass him up.
3. (35) Tony Gonzalez - I was hoping for Anquan Boldin to drop to me, but alas, he was taken one pick before I could get him. There was a big dropoff at receiver after Boldin, so I went with Gonzo against my own advice, and I'll either trade him or hope he does great things for me. I've never really had a great pass-catching TE before, so hopefully he helps my team.
4. (38) Dwayne Bowe - With Bowe, I now have 3 big-target receivers who also score some TDs. Hopefully Bowe has a "breakout" season in his third year, and a 90-catch, 1200 yard season would make me VERY happy. That's a bit inflated from my rankings, but I believe in Bowe.
5. (59) Derrick Ward - I didn't figure out how long it would be before I picked again, and at this point, I'm very thin on RBs. Ward could be a very good steal (for whatever reason I like Tampa's running game every year) if he produces like he did in New York and manages to hold off Earnest Graham as a TD vulture.
6. (62) LenDale White - I got kicked off my computer (why does that always happen in crunch time?) midway through the sixth round and barely got back with 5 seconds left to pick. White ended up as an auto-pick, and I probably would have gone with Willie Parker, or Anthony Gonzalez, who both got picked later in the sixth round. But I guess I'm backing up my stud RB in case of an injury. Bit early to do that, though.
7. (83) Matt Cassel - I was hoping one of the "Matt's" would fall to me (Schaub got taken in the 6th round, Ryan in the 7th before me) so Cassel became the pick. I absolutely HATE his early season schedule, but he'll probably be throwing early and often in KC's spread offense, and I'll love it every time he connects with Bowe, which will hopefully be early and often this year. For waiting on a QB, I could have done much, much worse.
8. (86) Kevin Walter - Baltimore's defense was sitting there begging me to pick them, but I just don't believe in them as much as I thought I would, so I kept with the PPR spirit and took Walter as my third receiver. I don't like that he's on the same team with Andre Johnson, but he showed promise last year with almost 900 yards and 60 catches along with some of the TDs that Johnson missed out on. Hopefully they can share the targets and catches somewhat equally this season.
9. (107) Fred Jackson - After another insanely long wait, I decided on Jackson. It seemed a bit early to go after him, but the team at the turn had already claimed Marshawn Lynch, so his handcuff might have been gone if I'd waited. Jackson also is a decent PPR RB, which means that if one of my main two aren't working out, Jackson could be a nice early plug-in play.
10. (110) New York Jets Defense - Yuck? I don't think so. Darrell Revis is a player, so is Bart Scott, so are a bunch of others on the Jets. It's not the best defense in fantasy football, but it's got a bit more punch with Rex Ryan and Bart Scott. At least in the early going, I love the potential of the Jets D.
11. (131) Nate Washington - For whatever reason, I'm bullish on Nate the Great. He's got a hammy injury now, but I think he'll be okay down the line. Once it gets to round 11, you're drafting sleepers anyway, so why not try for a potentially explosive receiver who has some height and speed? I probably will wait to start him and see how he's looking before I commit to him long-term.
12. (134) Percy Harvin - I have Harvin in two leagues now, getting him at pick 134 each time. Peter King recently published a list of his top rookies that had impressed him so far. Harvin's name was at the top. That gives me even more hope that this do-it-all rookie will do great things for me and/or become great trade bait.
13. (155) Chris Henry - This guy is a high-upside, low-risk pick for me, which is exactly what you're supposed to be drafting late in the 13th round. I could easily see him cracking my starting lineup within 3-4 weeks. I could also see him bagging groceries at the local supermarket or behind bars within 3-4 weeks. If he lives up to his potential, he's a steal.
14. (158) Trent Edwards - If you're throwing to T.O., you can have some great results. Tony Romo was a stud for a while, as was Donovan McNabb. Funny thing about it was that each stop he's made, his QB has been a stud in the first year or two of T.O.'s presence, then fallen off later. The 14th round has been very kind to me in the past, and I expect Edwards to emerge as a top-notch backup, if not high-quality starter by week 6.
15. (179) Nate Kaeding - A kicker.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
FFFL Draft Analysis
Here's an overview of my FFFL6 fantasy draft from Monday night. It's a PPR league where QBs get 7 points per TD pass, rather than the traditional 4 points.
First Round Analysis:
1. Peyton Manning 18 selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Maybe AP isn't the best RB choice in a PPR league, but he's the player that has the best chance to be the best (non-QB) player in the league.
2. Dominating Democrat selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Again, not a fantastic PPR player, but a really good player in general. I've told you my feelings about the "Curse of 370" before. If he's the exception to that rule, he could have a really good year. If not, Jerious Norwood becomes a superstar.
3. FabFour selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A potential PPR fiend. He's gonna get the yards and he's probably gonna get the TDs. FabFour was auto-picking in this draft, so he was lucky to get such a great player.
4. zippyzayde selects Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - This pick was a mistake. He said in the draft that he meant to pick Forte here. Still, zip rescued his draft in later rounds, and although he could have done better with Forte, he still did fairly well, especially if Olsen becomes a top-flight.
5. ToBe Champs selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Capitalizing on an opponent's error is a necessary strategy and that was the case here. Forte is probably in the top two RBs in fantasy for PPR leagues.
6. Quad Squad selects Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - Another PPR assassin, if he stays healthy, he's a beast. There are more questions about him this year than in the past, but while he's healthy he's everything to the Eagles offense.
7. The Terrible Tobe selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - After a supposed "down" year for LT, he gets picked 7th overall?! Terrible Tobe got a steal here with a quality performer that has consistently produced big points for owners.
8. Becca's Wreckas selects DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - A repeat isn't particularly likely, but with Jonathan Stewart nursing an injury, Williams could have the load all to himself and that bodes well for him.
9. J&J's Trust Fund selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - The first WR off the board doesn't come until pick number 9. A good selection because he's the best WR in the league in a passing offense and he catches a lot of balls. Madden curse be damned!
10. Mike's Last Min Team selects Steven Jackson, RB, STL - A very talented runner who can catch some, too. The injury bug has caught him the last few years, but he might be a steal if he can stay healthy.
11. Los Diablos Gatos selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - My first pick. He had 115 catches last year, and almost 100 yards per game. If he can stay healthy again, he's talented enough to be the best receiver in fantasy again.
12. vikes 2010 selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - I was hoping Moss would stick around long enough for me to pick him with the 14th pick, but alas, he was picked here. Without Brady last year, he had over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. What will he do with Brady back in the fold?
Here were some of the best picks in this draft:
Peyton Manning 18: Round 5, 49 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - This is a really good RB2 in a PPR league, assuming he can stay healthy. Oakland's rushing attack is formidable and McFadden seems poised to break out this year.
Dominating Democrat: Round 8, 95 Overall: Derrick Mason, WR, BAL - As a third receiver, Mason is a good PPR player. Questions about his injuries or his commitment make him questionable, but he might be fairly useful.
Fab Four: Round 3, 27 Overall: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - In the third round, he got a true WR1. It doesn't matter who is playing QB, the Lions will be behind in games and thus, Johnson will get his catches.
ToBe Champs: Round 1, 5 Overall: Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Sometimes, you have to take what's given to you. Forte was dropped into his lap and he pounced. He could produce some of the best numbers this year of any RB.
Quad Squad: Round 4, 43 Overall: Reggie Bush, RB, NO - With Bush, Quad Squad has two of the best pass-catching RBs in fantasy. Bush has an injury issue, like Westbrook, but he's dynamic if he stays healthy.
The Terrible Tobe: Round 11, 127 Overall: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - The aforementioned Westbrook's propensity for getting injured at the wrong time makes McCoy a valuable handcuff or a potentially powerful trade chip.
Becca's Wreckas: Round 10, 113 Overall: Felix Jones, RB, DAL - If he can stay healthy, he's an explosive player who could be productive in the even of an injury to Marion Barber.
J&J's Trust Fund: Round 14, 160 Overall: Steve Smith, WR, NYG - He's a PPR threat, but he's also Eli's most reliable receiver now that Burress is doing the jailhouse rock. 75 catches and 800 yards wouldn't be totally out of the question for this third year receiver.
Mike's Last Min Team: Round 3, 34 Overall: Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - I was targeting Boldin for my third rounder, but Mike's Team got him just before I could. Any time someone does that to me, it gets them a mention.
Los Diablos Gatos: Round 13, 155 Overall: Chris Henry, WR, CIN - He's done really well in the preseason and if he can keep his nose clean and get some catches this year, he's an excellent WR3. If not, hopefully Kevin Walter (2 first names, one of them is GREAT) will have a good year, too.
vikes 2010: Round 8, 85 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Pretty slick move to get a true WR1 this late in the draft. Granted, Cotchery's QB situation is shaky, but he's still a good pick and a proven PPR performer, plus vikes picked him up right before I was going to pick him, which, like I said, gets you a mention.
*Interestingly enough, I drafted Percy Harvin in the 13th round, with the 134th pick overall, the same exact pick I got him with in the Fantasy Factor Draft. Weird stuff happens in fantasy football sometimes.
First Round Analysis:
1. Peyton Manning 18 selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Maybe AP isn't the best RB choice in a PPR league, but he's the player that has the best chance to be the best (non-QB) player in the league.
2. Dominating Democrat selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Again, not a fantastic PPR player, but a really good player in general. I've told you my feelings about the "Curse of 370" before. If he's the exception to that rule, he could have a really good year. If not, Jerious Norwood becomes a superstar.
3. FabFour selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A potential PPR fiend. He's gonna get the yards and he's probably gonna get the TDs. FabFour was auto-picking in this draft, so he was lucky to get such a great player.
4. zippyzayde selects Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - This pick was a mistake. He said in the draft that he meant to pick Forte here. Still, zip rescued his draft in later rounds, and although he could have done better with Forte, he still did fairly well, especially if Olsen becomes a top-flight.
5. ToBe Champs selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Capitalizing on an opponent's error is a necessary strategy and that was the case here. Forte is probably in the top two RBs in fantasy for PPR leagues.
6. Quad Squad selects Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - Another PPR assassin, if he stays healthy, he's a beast. There are more questions about him this year than in the past, but while he's healthy he's everything to the Eagles offense.
7. The Terrible Tobe selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - After a supposed "down" year for LT, he gets picked 7th overall?! Terrible Tobe got a steal here with a quality performer that has consistently produced big points for owners.
8. Becca's Wreckas selects DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - A repeat isn't particularly likely, but with Jonathan Stewart nursing an injury, Williams could have the load all to himself and that bodes well for him.
9. J&J's Trust Fund selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - The first WR off the board doesn't come until pick number 9. A good selection because he's the best WR in the league in a passing offense and he catches a lot of balls. Madden curse be damned!
10. Mike's Last Min Team selects Steven Jackson, RB, STL - A very talented runner who can catch some, too. The injury bug has caught him the last few years, but he might be a steal if he can stay healthy.
11. Los Diablos Gatos selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - My first pick. He had 115 catches last year, and almost 100 yards per game. If he can stay healthy again, he's talented enough to be the best receiver in fantasy again.
12. vikes 2010 selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - I was hoping Moss would stick around long enough for me to pick him with the 14th pick, but alas, he was picked here. Without Brady last year, he had over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. What will he do with Brady back in the fold?
Here were some of the best picks in this draft:
Peyton Manning 18: Round 5, 49 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - This is a really good RB2 in a PPR league, assuming he can stay healthy. Oakland's rushing attack is formidable and McFadden seems poised to break out this year.
Dominating Democrat: Round 8, 95 Overall: Derrick Mason, WR, BAL - As a third receiver, Mason is a good PPR player. Questions about his injuries or his commitment make him questionable, but he might be fairly useful.
Fab Four: Round 3, 27 Overall: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - In the third round, he got a true WR1. It doesn't matter who is playing QB, the Lions will be behind in games and thus, Johnson will get his catches.
ToBe Champs: Round 1, 5 Overall: Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Sometimes, you have to take what's given to you. Forte was dropped into his lap and he pounced. He could produce some of the best numbers this year of any RB.
Quad Squad: Round 4, 43 Overall: Reggie Bush, RB, NO - With Bush, Quad Squad has two of the best pass-catching RBs in fantasy. Bush has an injury issue, like Westbrook, but he's dynamic if he stays healthy.
The Terrible Tobe: Round 11, 127 Overall: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - The aforementioned Westbrook's propensity for getting injured at the wrong time makes McCoy a valuable handcuff or a potentially powerful trade chip.
Becca's Wreckas: Round 10, 113 Overall: Felix Jones, RB, DAL - If he can stay healthy, he's an explosive player who could be productive in the even of an injury to Marion Barber.
J&J's Trust Fund: Round 14, 160 Overall: Steve Smith, WR, NYG - He's a PPR threat, but he's also Eli's most reliable receiver now that Burress is doing the jailhouse rock. 75 catches and 800 yards wouldn't be totally out of the question for this third year receiver.
Mike's Last Min Team: Round 3, 34 Overall: Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - I was targeting Boldin for my third rounder, but Mike's Team got him just before I could. Any time someone does that to me, it gets them a mention.
Los Diablos Gatos: Round 13, 155 Overall: Chris Henry, WR, CIN - He's done really well in the preseason and if he can keep his nose clean and get some catches this year, he's an excellent WR3. If not, hopefully Kevin Walter (2 first names, one of them is GREAT) will have a good year, too.
vikes 2010: Round 8, 85 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Pretty slick move to get a true WR1 this late in the draft. Granted, Cotchery's QB situation is shaky, but he's still a good pick and a proven PPR performer, plus vikes picked him up right before I was going to pick him, which, like I said, gets you a mention.
*Interestingly enough, I drafted Percy Harvin in the 13th round, with the 134th pick overall, the same exact pick I got him with in the Fantasy Factor Draft. Weird stuff happens in fantasy football sometimes.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Fantasy Sleepers
At its core, Fantasy sports are very similar to investing in the stock market. You want to buy low, and sell high. Get the maximum value out of every deal.
One part of the "buy low" concept is to draft "sleepers," or players that have yet to show impact, but have a lot of potential. Since they have yet to prove that they're going to be studs, you can acquire these players with lower draft picks, while you choose more proven studs in the first 5 rounds or so.
Here are some sleepers that you should look out for as backups, or if you miss out on some of the higher-end players at each position:
Quarterbacks:
No position is harder to learn in the NFL than QB. As a general rule, I try to look for (at least) one established veteran, and avoid rookies altogether. It's very rare that a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning comes around and throws for over 3,000 yards as a rookie. So, Matthew Stafford can sit out on your league's waiver wire or free agent pool and and hold a clipboard until an injury on your team makes him a necessary add (Honestly, I don't wish that on you, but if it comes to it, he's not the worst option in the world).
Trent Edwards, BUF - Edwards played reasonably well last year, but didn't throw a ton of TDs. Enter Terrell Owens. Buffalo has a legitimate passing attack with Lee Evans and T.O. lining up on the outsides. Edwards has the targets and the running game to back him up, all he needs to do is put it in the end zone.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 21 TDs, 17 Turnovers.
Joe Flacco, BAL - There's no question, Flacco played well beyond his years last year. If not for Matt Ryan's incredible turnaround of the Falcons, I have very little doubt that Flacco would have won Rookie of the Year. But, what I really love about Flacco (for fantasy purposes only) is that his team went out and got him even more help on an offensive line that was already very good. I think Flacco will continue to ascend the ranks of the NFL QBs in real life, but for fantasy he's still just a quality backup with mediocre weapons.
Projection: 2,900 yards, 18 TDs, 12 Turnovers.
Running Backs:
I love picking up rookie sleepers at running back more than anything else in fantasy football (except maybe pulling off a really helpful trade). This year, Running Backs are especially plentiful. Finding the right one might be a bit of a chore, though, so here are my guesses for rookies (and a few non-rookies) that will help your team this year.
LeSean McCoy, PHI - I've mentioned this before, but McCoy has all the skills of Brian Westbrook in a younger package. Handcuffing an injury-prone star, like Westbrook, with a young player that could be a stud is a good strategy. Pick him up a round before you normally would, though, because the secret may be out already on this potential game-breaker.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.
Knowshon Moreno, DEN - He needs a lot of things to go right in order to reach his potential, but his ceiling is higher than any other back in this year's class. He can do it all and if his injury clears up and Kyle Orton avoids throwing the ball to the other team, Moreno could be a dominant rusher this year.
Projection: 900 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 7 total TDs.
Ray Rice, BAL - Baltimore clearly has more than one sleeper. Probably one in each category, actually. I like Rice to have a good year because of the aforementioned offensive line that is further improved from last year's. Assuming Flacco doesn't turn into Rex Grossman (or Peyton Manning) overnight, the Ravens will be a ball-control offense that caters to lots of carries for Rice. He may lose out on some TDs, though, to Big Boy Le'Ron McClain.
Projection: 1,000 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 8 total TDs.
Felix Jones, DAL - I was really on the Felix bandwagon last year before he got hurt. He can score from anywhere (and I love having RBs that return kicks, too) and he's got enough of a burst that even Marion Barber won't poach a ton of scores from him. Furthermore, without T.O., the Cowboys will likely opt for more of a running-based offense, meaning more carries for both Barber and Jones.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.
Wide Receivers:
Unlike running backs, rookie WRs rarely make a huge impact. And don't, under any circumstances, think that Michael Crabtree is doing himself any favors by skipping all of training camp. He's not off to a good start and in spite of his body type and build, I don't buy him as a legit NFL receiver. Just my opinion. Let some other idiot take him while you concentrate on players who will actually make an impact on your team this year.
Nate Washington, TEN - Yes, he's starting now, and yes, Jeff Fisher says that he plans on incorporating him heavily into the offense, but temper your expectations. Until he shows otherwise, he's a bench player with #3 or fringe #2 potential. Draft late, though and get a steal.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 5 TDs.
Mark Clayton, BAL - I told you Baltimore could have someone in every category, right? Derrick Mason already retired once this year and Clayton could be a number one receiver pretty soon. He has gone undrafted in 5 out of 6 mock drafts that I've done, but I have a feeling this could be a breakout year for him. Then again, it's just a feeling, so don't gamble your draft on it. Take him with your second-to-last pick (before your kicker, though) and it's a low-risk move that could pay off with a fairly solid #3 receiver.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.
Percy Harvin, MIN - Usually avoiding rookie receivers is the way to go, but when a team adds whole pages and plays to their playbook for you, there's probably a reason. He (like Devin Hester in Chicago) has the potential to break a play for a huge gain any time he touches the ball. You'll have to gamble a little to get him before other owners, but you could capitalize on the first big game he puts up and trade him for a more reliable threat.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 6 TDs.
Tight Ends:
Tight End is a fairly deep position this year. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't try for one of the top 3 or 4, but you shouldn't worry if they do pass you up.
Brent Celek, PHI - Just because everyone has been calling for him to get playing time. I could see him having decent value, especially if McNabb were to get hurt. Remember: Michael Vick's favorite target with Atlanta was Alge Crumpler.
Projection: 40 catches, 500 yards, 4 TDs.
Todd Heap, BAL - See? A player in every category! He's gone mostly unnoticed but if he manages to stay healthy he's a fairly good TE. You can get him late and if he puts up good numbers, consider it a well-deserved bonus.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 5 TDs.
Defense:
Washington Redskins - I don't think you should take them as a number one, but heck, if LaRon Landry takes another step and Albert Haynesworth stays healthy and lives up to his contract, you're looking at a fairly consistent and stingy defense that may be worth owning/trading.
No projection for defense.
Feel free to post some of your sleepers, too.
Don't forget to include projections!
One part of the "buy low" concept is to draft "sleepers," or players that have yet to show impact, but have a lot of potential. Since they have yet to prove that they're going to be studs, you can acquire these players with lower draft picks, while you choose more proven studs in the first 5 rounds or so.
Here are some sleepers that you should look out for as backups, or if you miss out on some of the higher-end players at each position:
Quarterbacks:
No position is harder to learn in the NFL than QB. As a general rule, I try to look for (at least) one established veteran, and avoid rookies altogether. It's very rare that a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning comes around and throws for over 3,000 yards as a rookie. So, Matthew Stafford can sit out on your league's waiver wire or free agent pool and and hold a clipboard until an injury on your team makes him a necessary add (Honestly, I don't wish that on you, but if it comes to it, he's not the worst option in the world).
Trent Edwards, BUF - Edwards played reasonably well last year, but didn't throw a ton of TDs. Enter Terrell Owens. Buffalo has a legitimate passing attack with Lee Evans and T.O. lining up on the outsides. Edwards has the targets and the running game to back him up, all he needs to do is put it in the end zone.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 21 TDs, 17 Turnovers.
Joe Flacco, BAL - There's no question, Flacco played well beyond his years last year. If not for Matt Ryan's incredible turnaround of the Falcons, I have very little doubt that Flacco would have won Rookie of the Year. But, what I really love about Flacco (for fantasy purposes only) is that his team went out and got him even more help on an offensive line that was already very good. I think Flacco will continue to ascend the ranks of the NFL QBs in real life, but for fantasy he's still just a quality backup with mediocre weapons.
Projection: 2,900 yards, 18 TDs, 12 Turnovers.
Running Backs:
I love picking up rookie sleepers at running back more than anything else in fantasy football (except maybe pulling off a really helpful trade). This year, Running Backs are especially plentiful. Finding the right one might be a bit of a chore, though, so here are my guesses for rookies (and a few non-rookies) that will help your team this year.
LeSean McCoy, PHI - I've mentioned this before, but McCoy has all the skills of Brian Westbrook in a younger package. Handcuffing an injury-prone star, like Westbrook, with a young player that could be a stud is a good strategy. Pick him up a round before you normally would, though, because the secret may be out already on this potential game-breaker.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.
Knowshon Moreno, DEN - He needs a lot of things to go right in order to reach his potential, but his ceiling is higher than any other back in this year's class. He can do it all and if his injury clears up and Kyle Orton avoids throwing the ball to the other team, Moreno could be a dominant rusher this year.
Projection: 900 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 7 total TDs.
Ray Rice, BAL - Baltimore clearly has more than one sleeper. Probably one in each category, actually. I like Rice to have a good year because of the aforementioned offensive line that is further improved from last year's. Assuming Flacco doesn't turn into Rex Grossman (or Peyton Manning) overnight, the Ravens will be a ball-control offense that caters to lots of carries for Rice. He may lose out on some TDs, though, to Big Boy Le'Ron McClain.
Projection: 1,000 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 8 total TDs.
Felix Jones, DAL - I was really on the Felix bandwagon last year before he got hurt. He can score from anywhere (and I love having RBs that return kicks, too) and he's got enough of a burst that even Marion Barber won't poach a ton of scores from him. Furthermore, without T.O., the Cowboys will likely opt for more of a running-based offense, meaning more carries for both Barber and Jones.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.
Wide Receivers:
Unlike running backs, rookie WRs rarely make a huge impact. And don't, under any circumstances, think that Michael Crabtree is doing himself any favors by skipping all of training camp. He's not off to a good start and in spite of his body type and build, I don't buy him as a legit NFL receiver. Just my opinion. Let some other idiot take him while you concentrate on players who will actually make an impact on your team this year.
Nate Washington, TEN - Yes, he's starting now, and yes, Jeff Fisher says that he plans on incorporating him heavily into the offense, but temper your expectations. Until he shows otherwise, he's a bench player with #3 or fringe #2 potential. Draft late, though and get a steal.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 5 TDs.
Mark Clayton, BAL - I told you Baltimore could have someone in every category, right? Derrick Mason already retired once this year and Clayton could be a number one receiver pretty soon. He has gone undrafted in 5 out of 6 mock drafts that I've done, but I have a feeling this could be a breakout year for him. Then again, it's just a feeling, so don't gamble your draft on it. Take him with your second-to-last pick (before your kicker, though) and it's a low-risk move that could pay off with a fairly solid #3 receiver.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.
Percy Harvin, MIN - Usually avoiding rookie receivers is the way to go, but when a team adds whole pages and plays to their playbook for you, there's probably a reason. He (like Devin Hester in Chicago) has the potential to break a play for a huge gain any time he touches the ball. You'll have to gamble a little to get him before other owners, but you could capitalize on the first big game he puts up and trade him for a more reliable threat.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 6 TDs.
Tight Ends:
Tight End is a fairly deep position this year. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't try for one of the top 3 or 4, but you shouldn't worry if they do pass you up.
Brent Celek, PHI - Just because everyone has been calling for him to get playing time. I could see him having decent value, especially if McNabb were to get hurt. Remember: Michael Vick's favorite target with Atlanta was Alge Crumpler.
Projection: 40 catches, 500 yards, 4 TDs.
Todd Heap, BAL - See? A player in every category! He's gone mostly unnoticed but if he manages to stay healthy he's a fairly good TE. You can get him late and if he puts up good numbers, consider it a well-deserved bonus.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 5 TDs.
Defense:
Washington Redskins - I don't think you should take them as a number one, but heck, if LaRon Landry takes another step and Albert Haynesworth stays healthy and lives up to his contract, you're looking at a fairly consistent and stingy defense that may be worth owning/trading.
No projection for defense.
Feel free to post some of your sleepers, too.
Don't forget to include projections!
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Fantasy Factor League Draft Analysis, Part Deux
My Individual Draft Analysis:
1. (7) Maurice Jones-Drew - Awesome that I could get him that late in the first round.
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams - For the record, I don't think he'll repeat, but getting the leader in TDs last season in the second round is a good deal.
3. (27) Greg Jennings - A big question mark but he's in his prime with a good QB and he's coming off a great season.
4. (34) Philip Rivers - I needed a QB and he threw lots of TDs last year, but lots of QBs were already gone so I had to make a move.
5. (47) Reggie Bush - I love Bush, but this was a move that would have been much better in my PPR league, rather than in this league. But, I think Bush has a bounce-back year and scores at least 10 TDs this year.
6. (54) Vincent Jackson - With Rivers on my team and without the prospect of another great WR, Jackson was an obvious choice.
7. (67) Anthony Gonzalez - Marvin Harrison is gone and Gonzalez had a decent year last year. He could be great as a 7th rounder.
8. (74) Chris Cooley - I couldn't wait on a TE any longer. He only scored once last season, but as I've mentioned countless times before, TDs are among the most inconsistent things in fantasy, so I expect his scores to increase.
9. (87) LeSean McCoy - Just an inevitable Brian Westbrook injury away from being a super stud.
10. (94) Lance Moore - As a reserve WR, he's a great value as he almost got 1,000 yards last year. If he continues to start and produce, he's a shrewd pickup this late.
11. (107) Donald Brown - I'm collecting rookie RBs because every year at least one has a great season. My bet is that Brown grabs the reigns early and plays well in Manning's offense.
12. (114) Mushin Muhammad - I still wasn't quite satisfied with my receivers and I could see Muhammad having one more 1,000 yard season before he calls it a career. Plus, as a red zone threat, he's a useful fantasy player.
13. (127) Dallas D/ST - I'm not wild about them, but any time you have a DeMarcus Ware rushing opposition QBs, it's good. Plus, they were arguably the best defense remaining.
14. (134) Percy Harvin - The fourteenth round has been kind to me in the past (Willie Parker in '05, Adrian Peterson in '07 and Kurt Warner in '08). Hopefully Harvin will continue that trend as a homerun hitter late in the draft.
15. (147) Nate Washington - Another upside pick. He's a burner and he's starting, plus the Titans appear to want to use him as much as possible.
16. (154) Michael Vick - Just a Donovan McNabb injury away from being a fantasy stud (essentially as a third or fourth RB from the QB spot). Who cares if he's not starting, the last round is SUPPOSED to be about swinging for the fences.
17. (167) Kris Brown - A kicker.
1. (7) Maurice Jones-Drew - Awesome that I could get him that late in the first round.
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams - For the record, I don't think he'll repeat, but getting the leader in TDs last season in the second round is a good deal.
3. (27) Greg Jennings - A big question mark but he's in his prime with a good QB and he's coming off a great season.
4. (34) Philip Rivers - I needed a QB and he threw lots of TDs last year, but lots of QBs were already gone so I had to make a move.
5. (47) Reggie Bush - I love Bush, but this was a move that would have been much better in my PPR league, rather than in this league. But, I think Bush has a bounce-back year and scores at least 10 TDs this year.
6. (54) Vincent Jackson - With Rivers on my team and without the prospect of another great WR, Jackson was an obvious choice.
7. (67) Anthony Gonzalez - Marvin Harrison is gone and Gonzalez had a decent year last year. He could be great as a 7th rounder.
8. (74) Chris Cooley - I couldn't wait on a TE any longer. He only scored once last season, but as I've mentioned countless times before, TDs are among the most inconsistent things in fantasy, so I expect his scores to increase.
9. (87) LeSean McCoy - Just an inevitable Brian Westbrook injury away from being a super stud.
10. (94) Lance Moore - As a reserve WR, he's a great value as he almost got 1,000 yards last year. If he continues to start and produce, he's a shrewd pickup this late.
11. (107) Donald Brown - I'm collecting rookie RBs because every year at least one has a great season. My bet is that Brown grabs the reigns early and plays well in Manning's offense.
12. (114) Mushin Muhammad - I still wasn't quite satisfied with my receivers and I could see Muhammad having one more 1,000 yard season before he calls it a career. Plus, as a red zone threat, he's a useful fantasy player.
13. (127) Dallas D/ST - I'm not wild about them, but any time you have a DeMarcus Ware rushing opposition QBs, it's good. Plus, they were arguably the best defense remaining.
14. (134) Percy Harvin - The fourteenth round has been kind to me in the past (Willie Parker in '05, Adrian Peterson in '07 and Kurt Warner in '08). Hopefully Harvin will continue that trend as a homerun hitter late in the draft.
15. (147) Nate Washington - Another upside pick. He's a burner and he's starting, plus the Titans appear to want to use him as much as possible.
16. (154) Michael Vick - Just a Donovan McNabb injury away from being a fantasy stud (essentially as a third or fourth RB from the QB spot). Who cares if he's not starting, the last round is SUPPOSED to be about swinging for the fences.
17. (167) Kris Brown - A kicker.
Fantasy Factor League Draft Analysis
Nick over at the Fantasy Factor is hosting a fantasy football league for his readers. I signed up.
Here's a review of the draft, which was held tonight, and a few of the notable picks.
First Round Analysis:
1. North Side selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - The obvious first overall pick. He's safe and has a great offensive line. Obvious, but good pick.
2. Magnificent Bastards selects Tom Brady, QB, NE - A big-time reach, but then again, he probably couldn't get him if he waited. If he throws another 50 TDs, this pick looks genius.
3. Marathon Maria selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - 3 picks down, only one RB gone? Fitz has been safer than a bank vault over the past few years. I guess Maria isn't fearful of the Madden Curse.
4. Warbirds selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Forte is a really good pick. He's a dual threat and stands a good chance to get better as Jay Cutler gets comfortable in the offense.
5. Tim selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - As long as the "curse of 370" doesn't affect him, he's gonna be golden again for the Falcons. And for the creatively-named team "Tim."
6. The Flying Hellfish selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - If Tom Brady has a good year again, Randy Moss has something to do with it. He's still a reach at number 6 overall, though.
7. KevinZuk selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A pure value pick. He's maybe the second or third best RB overall, and I got him at number 7 overall. No question here.
8. Manor Beasts selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - LT is still LT, no matter the "down year" he had last season. He's still a stud and getting him this late is a good value pick.
9. Torn Meniscus selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - This is somewhere near the slot for AJ, and I suppose the selection of RBs would be similar in the second round and he gets the best receiver left.
10. Xtreme Machine selects Frank Gore, RB, SF - Not a bad first-rounder, but there seem to be better backs still on the board. He's not bad, but playing on a bad team means he'll be behind a lot and thus, have fewer opportunities to carry the mail.
That's just the first round. But slick moves by all the owners were prevalent in this draft. Here's each team's best picks, in my opinion.
North Side: Round 12, 120 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - No one expects much of him because of the lack of experience at QB, but he's a genuine number 1 receiver in real life and should produce at least number 3 numbers, which is the best thing you can hope for in Round 12.
Magnificent Bastards: Round 2, 19 Overall: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - After skipping a RB in Round 1, the Bastards still got a starting back with high upside who scores lots of TDs.
Marathon Maria: Round 5, 43 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Everyone in the draft had some kind of comment here. He's due for a breakout and he could be the steal of the draft.
Warbirds: Round 15, 144 Overall: Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - This guy could be a huge steal, too. Jackson is definitely going to start the first three games with Marshawn Lynch suspended. We'll see if Jackson can hang onto the starting role past Week 3.
Tim: Round 7, 65 Overall: Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Edwards is Tim's 3rd receiver and he's got potential to put up number 1 receiver numbers. He's a great value with Tim's team already stocked with reliable talent.
The Flying Hellfish: Round 16, 155 Overall: Eli Manning, QB, NYG - This is incredible value, although the Hellfish already had Tony Romo and Matt Cassell in tow. Eli could be very helpful when trying to swing a trade later in the year. Great pick.
Manor Beasts: Round 9, 88 Overall: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - As a third receiver, Walter is a good pick. He's a good redzone threat, and a solid player.
Torn Meniscus: Round 17, 169 Overall: Shonn Greene, RB, NJY - A mega-sleeper that could be an excellent pick if Thomas Jones gets injured. I love it when a team gets a great pick in the last round or two.
Xtreme Machine: Round 11, 110 Overall: Ray Rice, RB, BAL - He's probably gonna be the starter and the Machine got him in round 11. Something like that doesn't happen often and Xtreme Machine took advantage.
Kevin Zuk: Round 14, 134 Overall: Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - He's a playmaker and this was a low-risk, high-reward option. It also got lots of attention from my fellow drafters. If he contributes immediately, it's a steal as my WR options are mediocre, at best.
Here's a review of the draft, which was held tonight, and a few of the notable picks.
First Round Analysis:
1. North Side selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - The obvious first overall pick. He's safe and has a great offensive line. Obvious, but good pick.
2. Magnificent Bastards selects Tom Brady, QB, NE - A big-time reach, but then again, he probably couldn't get him if he waited. If he throws another 50 TDs, this pick looks genius.
3. Marathon Maria selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - 3 picks down, only one RB gone? Fitz has been safer than a bank vault over the past few years. I guess Maria isn't fearful of the Madden Curse.
4. Warbirds selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Forte is a really good pick. He's a dual threat and stands a good chance to get better as Jay Cutler gets comfortable in the offense.
5. Tim selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - As long as the "curse of 370" doesn't affect him, he's gonna be golden again for the Falcons. And for the creatively-named team "Tim."
6. The Flying Hellfish selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - If Tom Brady has a good year again, Randy Moss has something to do with it. He's still a reach at number 6 overall, though.
7. KevinZuk selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A pure value pick. He's maybe the second or third best RB overall, and I got him at number 7 overall. No question here.
8. Manor Beasts selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - LT is still LT, no matter the "down year" he had last season. He's still a stud and getting him this late is a good value pick.
9. Torn Meniscus selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - This is somewhere near the slot for AJ, and I suppose the selection of RBs would be similar in the second round and he gets the best receiver left.
10. Xtreme Machine selects Frank Gore, RB, SF - Not a bad first-rounder, but there seem to be better backs still on the board. He's not bad, but playing on a bad team means he'll be behind a lot and thus, have fewer opportunities to carry the mail.
That's just the first round. But slick moves by all the owners were prevalent in this draft. Here's each team's best picks, in my opinion.
North Side: Round 12, 120 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - No one expects much of him because of the lack of experience at QB, but he's a genuine number 1 receiver in real life and should produce at least number 3 numbers, which is the best thing you can hope for in Round 12.
Magnificent Bastards: Round 2, 19 Overall: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - After skipping a RB in Round 1, the Bastards still got a starting back with high upside who scores lots of TDs.
Marathon Maria: Round 5, 43 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Everyone in the draft had some kind of comment here. He's due for a breakout and he could be the steal of the draft.
Warbirds: Round 15, 144 Overall: Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - This guy could be a huge steal, too. Jackson is definitely going to start the first three games with Marshawn Lynch suspended. We'll see if Jackson can hang onto the starting role past Week 3.
Tim: Round 7, 65 Overall: Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Edwards is Tim's 3rd receiver and he's got potential to put up number 1 receiver numbers. He's a great value with Tim's team already stocked with reliable talent.
The Flying Hellfish: Round 16, 155 Overall: Eli Manning, QB, NYG - This is incredible value, although the Hellfish already had Tony Romo and Matt Cassell in tow. Eli could be very helpful when trying to swing a trade later in the year. Great pick.
Manor Beasts: Round 9, 88 Overall: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - As a third receiver, Walter is a good pick. He's a good redzone threat, and a solid player.
Torn Meniscus: Round 17, 169 Overall: Shonn Greene, RB, NJY - A mega-sleeper that could be an excellent pick if Thomas Jones gets injured. I love it when a team gets a great pick in the last round or two.
Xtreme Machine: Round 11, 110 Overall: Ray Rice, RB, BAL - He's probably gonna be the starter and the Machine got him in round 11. Something like that doesn't happen often and Xtreme Machine took advantage.
Kevin Zuk: Round 14, 134 Overall: Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - He's a playmaker and this was a low-risk, high-reward option. It also got lots of attention from my fellow drafters. If he contributes immediately, it's a steal as my WR options are mediocre, at best.
Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends
Tight Ends are probably the most difficult position to predict and probably the most inconsistent. If you don't land one of the top few, though, don't fear. Tight end is also one of the deepest positions in fantasy and you can usually try to play the matchups from week to week.
Bottom line: I consider getting TE points as a bonus. If you can get a great one without sacrificing too much at the WR or RB positions, go for it. I try to aim for a top-tier pass-catching TE in the late 3rd-5th rounds, but if I miss out, I try for something else much later in the draft.
In PPR leagues, a pass-catching TE is almost essential.
Now, the top 10.
1. Tony Gonzalez, ATL - He's earned it over the years with plenty of years of consistent service. Matt Ryan will be able to find him all over the field and in the red zone. He's got a solid running game backing him up and soft hands. He's a solid route-runner, too. He's going to be taken extremely early in drafts, maybe as early as the third round.
Projection: 90 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.
2. Jason Witten, DAL - Without T.O. in Dallas, Witten is clearly Tony Romo's top target. He's probably the second-best TE in PPR leagues. Don't reach for him, but if he's still available in the fourth round and have 2 solid RBs, you'll be more than happy with Witten.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 9 TDs.
3. Antonio Gates, SD - This guy is the ultimate in draft-and-trade players. He's got a big name, he plays in a great offense and he's got a good QB. But, he's not going to live up to the expectations you probably have for him. Draft him, if you want, but in my opinion he's a guy you can sell high to an owner with quality depth at another position, maybe for a high-caliber QB or middle-tier WR.
Projection: 75 catches, 800 yards, 8 TDs.
4. Dallas Clark, IND - I may have mentioned this once or twice on this blog, but Marvin Harrison is no longer a Colt. I can't really emphasize how much offense this actually opens up for the rest of the team and Clark stands to benefit a lot from his departure. I could see him outperforming Gates by a lot, so he's a guy you should target, too, as Manning will be doing the same every Sunday.
Projection: 75 catches, 950 yards 8 TDs.
5. Chris Cooley, WAS - This gets said a ton on this blog, too, but TDs are inconsistent. Cooley is capable of huge games and he got his opportunities last year, but not as much in the red zone. I think if Malcolm Kelly can open up the outside, Cooley returns to 8-1o TD territory. And he'll still get the yards as a reliable target for Jason Campbell.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU - He usually tends to start off kind of slow, meaning an owner might get frustrated and drop him or trade him cheap. If you draft him, hold him. His numbers will pick up. If you can pick him up, do it. A sort of Dallas Clark-lite, he's good for catches and yards and is probably the second option for targets on his team. He should have a solid, if not spectacular season.
Projection: 60 catches, 750 yards, 6 TDs.
7. Greg Olsen, CHI - Olsen has never had a QB like Cutler. Remember Tony Scheffler had some useful fantasy games in Denver last year, too. Olsen is probably the most reliable receiver on the Bears, so I expect Olsen to put up something close to 80 yards per game.
Projection: 65 catches, 750 yards, 5 TDs.
8. Heath Miller, PIT - Players generally don't sign huge contracts such as the one Miller signed this offseason and not get utilized in the passing game. I'll count on this being Miller's breakout receiving season, and as a featured part of the Steelers offense, he'll be among the most reliable TEs this season. Temper your expectations, but TDs could boost his value.
Projection: 60 catches, 650 yards, 6 TDs.
9. Zach Miller, OAK - A sleeper candidate to be a breakout player of the year. Of course, I don't love tying my fantasy TE's value to JaMarcus Russell, but he did okay last year, so maybe there will be improvement, or at the very least, consistency.
Projection: 55 catches, 700 yards, 3 TDs.
10. John Carlson, SEA - He had a decent season without Matt Hasselbeck last year. Now lets see what he can do with a real QB running the offense.
Projection: 50 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs.
Bottom line: I consider getting TE points as a bonus. If you can get a great one without sacrificing too much at the WR or RB positions, go for it. I try to aim for a top-tier pass-catching TE in the late 3rd-5th rounds, but if I miss out, I try for something else much later in the draft.
In PPR leagues, a pass-catching TE is almost essential.
Now, the top 10.
1. Tony Gonzalez, ATL - He's earned it over the years with plenty of years of consistent service. Matt Ryan will be able to find him all over the field and in the red zone. He's got a solid running game backing him up and soft hands. He's a solid route-runner, too. He's going to be taken extremely early in drafts, maybe as early as the third round.
Projection: 90 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.
2. Jason Witten, DAL - Without T.O. in Dallas, Witten is clearly Tony Romo's top target. He's probably the second-best TE in PPR leagues. Don't reach for him, but if he's still available in the fourth round and have 2 solid RBs, you'll be more than happy with Witten.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 9 TDs.
3. Antonio Gates, SD - This guy is the ultimate in draft-and-trade players. He's got a big name, he plays in a great offense and he's got a good QB. But, he's not going to live up to the expectations you probably have for him. Draft him, if you want, but in my opinion he's a guy you can sell high to an owner with quality depth at another position, maybe for a high-caliber QB or middle-tier WR.
Projection: 75 catches, 800 yards, 8 TDs.
4. Dallas Clark, IND - I may have mentioned this once or twice on this blog, but Marvin Harrison is no longer a Colt. I can't really emphasize how much offense this actually opens up for the rest of the team and Clark stands to benefit a lot from his departure. I could see him outperforming Gates by a lot, so he's a guy you should target, too, as Manning will be doing the same every Sunday.
Projection: 75 catches, 950 yards 8 TDs.
5. Chris Cooley, WAS - This gets said a ton on this blog, too, but TDs are inconsistent. Cooley is capable of huge games and he got his opportunities last year, but not as much in the red zone. I think if Malcolm Kelly can open up the outside, Cooley returns to 8-1o TD territory. And he'll still get the yards as a reliable target for Jason Campbell.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU - He usually tends to start off kind of slow, meaning an owner might get frustrated and drop him or trade him cheap. If you draft him, hold him. His numbers will pick up. If you can pick him up, do it. A sort of Dallas Clark-lite, he's good for catches and yards and is probably the second option for targets on his team. He should have a solid, if not spectacular season.
Projection: 60 catches, 750 yards, 6 TDs.
7. Greg Olsen, CHI - Olsen has never had a QB like Cutler. Remember Tony Scheffler had some useful fantasy games in Denver last year, too. Olsen is probably the most reliable receiver on the Bears, so I expect Olsen to put up something close to 80 yards per game.
Projection: 65 catches, 750 yards, 5 TDs.
8. Heath Miller, PIT - Players generally don't sign huge contracts such as the one Miller signed this offseason and not get utilized in the passing game. I'll count on this being Miller's breakout receiving season, and as a featured part of the Steelers offense, he'll be among the most reliable TEs this season. Temper your expectations, but TDs could boost his value.
Projection: 60 catches, 650 yards, 6 TDs.
9. Zach Miller, OAK - A sleeper candidate to be a breakout player of the year. Of course, I don't love tying my fantasy TE's value to JaMarcus Russell, but he did okay last year, so maybe there will be improvement, or at the very least, consistency.
Projection: 55 catches, 700 yards, 3 TDs.
10. John Carlson, SEA - He had a decent season without Matt Hasselbeck last year. Now lets see what he can do with a real QB running the offense.
Projection: 50 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receivers
Receivers are the trickiest position to draft because the passing game's production can be so random at times. Things to look for when looking for good Wide Receivers are the quality of their QB, the overall skill set and the strength of their team's defense.
...
What?
No, really. If a WR plays on a team that has a lousy defense, he can put up some excellent games. The same rule can apply to QBs, although you run the risk of turnovers more with QBs. For example: Calvin Johnson put up some fantastic numbers last year, but his team was the worst in history. This is because he got production in "garbage time" and has excellent skills, plus his team was throwing to try to get back in the game quickly. "Megatron" will likely put up similar numbers with a good QB this year, so target him before the fourth round of your draft.
Now, the rankings!
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - After the incredible post-season he had last year (basically carrying the Cardinals on his back to the Super Bowl (and nearly winning that game on his own), Fitz has momentum and will continue to be among the safest and best values at WR. He is a consistency KING and has at least one score or 100 yards just about every week. He should be taken in the first round, especially in PPR leagues. The only thing you have to worry about is the "Madden Curse," which will hopefully be broken now that he's retired from broadcasting!
Projection: 100 catches, 1,500 yards, 12 TDs.
2. Randy Moss, NE - Without the services of elite QB Tom Brady last year, Moss still managed to get over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Brady is back. You do the math. Moss should have at least one or two more monster years before he begins a serious decline. He was among the most valuable players when Brady was healthy, so I see no reason why he wouldn't be right near the top now.
Projection: 93 catches, 1,300 yards, 15 TDs.
3. Andre Johnson, HOU - I've already based several rules on this guy's production. When he's healthy, he's practically unstoppable. He showed that last year with 115 catches, 1,575 yards and 8 TDs. He makes other players better, too. He would likely be the number one receiver in PPR leagues, but his injury issues still remain a question. Still, he'll be gone before the end of the second round in almost all leagues.
Projection: 98 catches, 1,400 yards, 10 TDs.
4. Roddy White, ATL - A few years back when Roddy White was drafted, Atlanta knew something that maybe no one else did. "Rowdy" Roddy White is a PLAYER. Matt Ryan loves him, and he had more 100-yard games than any other player last year. If you get bonus points for 100+ yard games, target White. He didn't score very many TDs, but as I've mentioned before, TDs fluctuate a lot in fantasy. Luckily for you, people still don't really know about him, for whatever reason, so he'll likely slip past the second round after guys like Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin are gone. You could wind up with a steal if you can get him in the third round.
Projection: 91 catches, 1,350 yards, 9 TDs.
5. Steve Smith, CAR - Maybe no player in the NFL can draw attention like Steve Smith. And maybe no other player can continue to get the ball in spite of all the attention. Smith is a lock to score big points when he's healthy and he doesn't rely just on long plays. He catches swing passes, screens, bombs, and even occasionally runs the ball. He's a focal point of the Panther's offense and he gets the ball. Period.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs.
6. Calvin Johnson, DET - Just about everything you want in a WR you can find in CJ. He's got great measurables, he's the focal point of his team's offense, and he's got a lousy defense backing him up, meaning more throws and more opportunity for Johnson. I love Johnson, but I don't trust him as much as I do the other 5 receivers listed ahead of him. It might be best to let him go for a while and only target him if he becomes available late in the second round and you can get another complimentary player not long after him.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards, 10 TDs.
7. Reggie Wayne, IND - He's the number one receiver with an uber-talented QB in Peyton Manning. He's money no matter the format but he may be more heavily covered than in years past with the departure of Marvin Harrison and a lack-luster running game. Plus, with a new coach in Indy, the offensive strategy may change. Obviously, he's an elite talent, so he's gonna be drafted high, but don't reach for him too early in the second round. If he's still available when you pick in the third round and you have a great RB and another WR already, he's an exceptional number two.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs.
8. Anquan Boldin, ARI - The Cardinals have among the best offenses in the NFL with Kurt Warner at the helm. Boldin would have been almost as good as Larry Fitzgerald last year if he hadn't missed a few games with a broken jaw. Even without a few starts, he still topped 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. He lost a few fumbles last year but he should have a monster year again.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards 9 TDs.
9. Terrell Owens, BUF - T.O. = T.D. We've all heard it before. T.O. has skills and usually in his first year with a new team he's usually quiet and productive. I'm not really sure what to make of his potential draft situation this year. He's a big name, which means he'll be gone early, but he's also working with an unproven QB, which tends to diminish even a star receiver's value. Draft him late in the second round... or don't. It doesn't matter. If you are lost for a number one receiver and the talent pool is beginning to dwindle, he's still going to get number one receiver statistics.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.
10. Dwayne Bowe, KC - Bowe is super. I love him. You'll love him. He's a great combo of skill and opportunity that everyone is seeking. But he's never played with a legit QB. Enter Matt Cassel. He was in a bit of trouble early this offseason with the coaching staff, but don't worry, he'll be in the starting lineup from week 1 and he'll be more productive than ever with Cassel at the helm.
Projection: 75 catches, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs.
Depending on your league's format there are some receivers that should be on this list. Greg Jennings is great for long-scoring bonus point leagues, as is DeSean Jackson. Wes Welker, Hines Ward and T. J. Houshmandzadeh are excellent options for PPR leagues.
Breakout candidates at receiver tend to include third year players, but here's my list of some with potential:
1. Santonio Holmes, PIT - He did it already in the Super Bowl. A thousand yard season is likely.
2. Anthony Gonzalez, IND - Marvin Harrison is gone, Peyton Manning is still great. He's got an opportunity to excel this season.
3. Nate Washington, TEN - He's a starter now, and he's a burner. He could impress.
4. Ted Ginn, MIA - It's his third year and this former first-rounder needs to put up or shut up. He could be big this year.
5. Mark Clayton, BAL - Joe Flacco's potentially best receiver. And the defense isn't going to be quite as good this year, meaning more opportunities for him to develop with Flacco.
...
What?
No, really. If a WR plays on a team that has a lousy defense, he can put up some excellent games. The same rule can apply to QBs, although you run the risk of turnovers more with QBs. For example: Calvin Johnson put up some fantastic numbers last year, but his team was the worst in history. This is because he got production in "garbage time" and has excellent skills, plus his team was throwing to try to get back in the game quickly. "Megatron" will likely put up similar numbers with a good QB this year, so target him before the fourth round of your draft.
Now, the rankings!
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - After the incredible post-season he had last year (basically carrying the Cardinals on his back to the Super Bowl (and nearly winning that game on his own), Fitz has momentum and will continue to be among the safest and best values at WR. He is a consistency KING and has at least one score or 100 yards just about every week. He should be taken in the first round, especially in PPR leagues. The only thing you have to worry about is the "Madden Curse," which will hopefully be broken now that he's retired from broadcasting!
Projection: 100 catches, 1,500 yards, 12 TDs.
2. Randy Moss, NE - Without the services of elite QB Tom Brady last year, Moss still managed to get over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Brady is back. You do the math. Moss should have at least one or two more monster years before he begins a serious decline. He was among the most valuable players when Brady was healthy, so I see no reason why he wouldn't be right near the top now.
Projection: 93 catches, 1,300 yards, 15 TDs.
3. Andre Johnson, HOU - I've already based several rules on this guy's production. When he's healthy, he's practically unstoppable. He showed that last year with 115 catches, 1,575 yards and 8 TDs. He makes other players better, too. He would likely be the number one receiver in PPR leagues, but his injury issues still remain a question. Still, he'll be gone before the end of the second round in almost all leagues.
Projection: 98 catches, 1,400 yards, 10 TDs.
4. Roddy White, ATL - A few years back when Roddy White was drafted, Atlanta knew something that maybe no one else did. "Rowdy" Roddy White is a PLAYER. Matt Ryan loves him, and he had more 100-yard games than any other player last year. If you get bonus points for 100+ yard games, target White. He didn't score very many TDs, but as I've mentioned before, TDs fluctuate a lot in fantasy. Luckily for you, people still don't really know about him, for whatever reason, so he'll likely slip past the second round after guys like Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin are gone. You could wind up with a steal if you can get him in the third round.
Projection: 91 catches, 1,350 yards, 9 TDs.
5. Steve Smith, CAR - Maybe no player in the NFL can draw attention like Steve Smith. And maybe no other player can continue to get the ball in spite of all the attention. Smith is a lock to score big points when he's healthy and he doesn't rely just on long plays. He catches swing passes, screens, bombs, and even occasionally runs the ball. He's a focal point of the Panther's offense and he gets the ball. Period.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs.
6. Calvin Johnson, DET - Just about everything you want in a WR you can find in CJ. He's got great measurables, he's the focal point of his team's offense, and he's got a lousy defense backing him up, meaning more throws and more opportunity for Johnson. I love Johnson, but I don't trust him as much as I do the other 5 receivers listed ahead of him. It might be best to let him go for a while and only target him if he becomes available late in the second round and you can get another complimentary player not long after him.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards, 10 TDs.
7. Reggie Wayne, IND - He's the number one receiver with an uber-talented QB in Peyton Manning. He's money no matter the format but he may be more heavily covered than in years past with the departure of Marvin Harrison and a lack-luster running game. Plus, with a new coach in Indy, the offensive strategy may change. Obviously, he's an elite talent, so he's gonna be drafted high, but don't reach for him too early in the second round. If he's still available when you pick in the third round and you have a great RB and another WR already, he's an exceptional number two.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs.
8. Anquan Boldin, ARI - The Cardinals have among the best offenses in the NFL with Kurt Warner at the helm. Boldin would have been almost as good as Larry Fitzgerald last year if he hadn't missed a few games with a broken jaw. Even without a few starts, he still topped 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. He lost a few fumbles last year but he should have a monster year again.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards 9 TDs.
9. Terrell Owens, BUF - T.O. = T.D. We've all heard it before. T.O. has skills and usually in his first year with a new team he's usually quiet and productive. I'm not really sure what to make of his potential draft situation this year. He's a big name, which means he'll be gone early, but he's also working with an unproven QB, which tends to diminish even a star receiver's value. Draft him late in the second round... or don't. It doesn't matter. If you are lost for a number one receiver and the talent pool is beginning to dwindle, he's still going to get number one receiver statistics.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.
10. Dwayne Bowe, KC - Bowe is super. I love him. You'll love him. He's a great combo of skill and opportunity that everyone is seeking. But he's never played with a legit QB. Enter Matt Cassel. He was in a bit of trouble early this offseason with the coaching staff, but don't worry, he'll be in the starting lineup from week 1 and he'll be more productive than ever with Cassel at the helm.
Projection: 75 catches, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs.
Depending on your league's format there are some receivers that should be on this list. Greg Jennings is great for long-scoring bonus point leagues, as is DeSean Jackson. Wes Welker, Hines Ward and T. J. Houshmandzadeh are excellent options for PPR leagues.
Breakout candidates at receiver tend to include third year players, but here's my list of some with potential:
1. Santonio Holmes, PIT - He did it already in the Super Bowl. A thousand yard season is likely.
2. Anthony Gonzalez, IND - Marvin Harrison is gone, Peyton Manning is still great. He's got an opportunity to excel this season.
3. Nate Washington, TEN - He's a starter now, and he's a burner. He could impress.
4. Ted Ginn, MIA - It's his third year and this former first-rounder needs to put up or shut up. He could be big this year.
5. Mark Clayton, BAL - Joe Flacco's potentially best receiver. And the defense isn't going to be quite as good this year, meaning more opportunities for him to develop with Flacco.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Top 10 Fantasy Running Backs
One cardinal rule to remember about running backs is that the quality of the Offensive Line can directly determine the quality of the back. Obviously, that is not always true, but more often than not a running back will not be able to overcome poor blocking on a consistent basis. And that's what we're looking for here: Consistency.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN - Peterson has thrived the past few years with some stellar years based solely on talent. He's got no semblance of a passing game to open the field up for him, and defenses know he's coming, but still they can't stop him. If Sage Rosenfels can take some pressure off of him, we could see an even bigger year from AP. He's a bit of an injury risk, but still more than worthy of your top pick.
Projection: 1,8oo total yards, 14 TDs.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC - Probably your best bet as a top pick in PPR leagues because he catches a ton of balls. Jones-Drew finally has the starting job all to himself and I'm guessing he goes nuts with all the carries. If David Garrard can avoid turnovers like he did in 2007, my guess is that MJD can carry for over 1,200 yards and get more than 600 yards receiving.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 16 TDs
3. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD - I don't buy that LT is done. Past his prime? Maybe. But definitely not done. The great thing about LT is that even in a "down" year like last year where he endured injuries, he still rushed for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. You can't miss if you take him, in my opinion, but just to be safe, target his backup (Darren Sproles) or make sure you have at least three high-quality options at running back, because he's more of an injury risk now than ever before. If you're in a PPR league, he's gotta be in your top 2 running backs off the board.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs
4. Chris Johnson, TEN - He's probably the number one pick if your league counts bonus points for plays over 20 yards, but regardless CJ is interesting. He produced almost 1,500 total yards last year rushing and receiving, caught 43 balls, and scored 10 combined TDs. LenDale White's presence would seem to diminish his value, and I recommend handcuffing him very early... But because Tennessee has among the best line's in football and can string out defenses with Nate Washington, this year could be even better for Chris Johnson.
Projection: 1,700 total yards, 10 TDs.
5. Michael Turner, ATL - This is a running back that, in spite of his outstanding numbers last year, I'm going to avoid in the first round. I love what he did last year. He'll probably do great again this year. But I have my doubts about his durability, and the fact that he amassed 376 carries last year doesn't help my fears. He played like a horse and in all situations. But TDs fluctuate more than anything in fantasy football (I call it the "Thomas Jones Rule"), so you can't rely on him scoring 17 TDs again. Definitely easy to wait on him until late in the first round in PPR leagues, though with only 6 catches last year. Still probably a top 5 back, but I don't like taking health risks with my first round pick.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs.
6. DeAngelo Williams, CAR - The D-train carries the most intrigue of any fantasy running back this year. Can he repeat his 2008 season? The answer is: not likely. But, he'll still be a productive and hopefully consistent back. Three things I love about Williams and his situation: 1. He's in a timeshare. What? Yes, I believe it will keep him fresh and he'll be able to run without much difficulty in the playoff weeks because he's not getting strained in the opening weeks. 2. He gets yards. Thomas Jones Rule, again. 3. Steve Smith. A dynamic receiver and a deep threat makes Carolina's offense all the more dangerous. Teams sell out to stop Smith, leaving room to run for Williams.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 12 TDs.
7. Matt Forte, CHI - I read somewhere that drafting Forte was more about drafting someone with a "high floor" than someone with a "high ceiling." It's an interesting take on it. In PPR leagues, Forte is a top 3 back. Maybe even better than that, as he had more catches than any other RB last year. What will the addition of Jay Cutler do to Forte's production? Maybe not much will change, that's my bet, anyway. Cutler likes to chuck it downfield, so Forte probably loses some of the dump-offs that he got from Orton, but he's still the featured back with no real threat to steal red-zone carries. No, he's not flashy, but he's got a "high floor" meaning he's never really going to kill you.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 8 TDs.
8. Steve Slaton, HOU - Houston has a potentially great fantasy offense. I say "potentially" because so many of their guys are injury-prone. Slaton seems to be the exception. He gashed a few good defenses last year and continued to be relevant well into the last week of the playoffs. He will probably continue to have a solid career and as long as he has the starting gig and the offense stays healthy (the Andre Johnson Rule), he'll continue to put up good numbers. He's probably the 3rd or 4th back off the board in PPR leagues.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 11 TDs.
9. Pierre Thomas, NO - In a pass-happy offense, do you really want the running back that isn't Reggie Bush? Yes. Maybe let some other RBs go before you take him. He's still fairly low-profile, so you'll still have an excellent chance to get him in the second round if you take a Larry Fitzgerald-type in the first round. He's versatile, he plays on a fast track in a good offense, and he's got a quarterback that spreads the field so he gets room. He also played VERY well in the playoff weeks last year. He was a focal point of the offense late in the year, so he should be featured early this year. A good guy to get if you go with an elite receiver in the first round.
Projection: 1,300 total yards, 14 TDs
10. Frank Gore, SF - I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about his stats this year, though. I think it's mainly Michael Crabtree's fault. Who else have they got that's a legit playmaker? No one. No matter who wins the QB job, Gore will still be the center of the offense. He should get around 320-350 carries this year, barring health concerns, which translates to a very good fantasy season for any NFL back. Take him late in the first round and forget about him.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 9 TDs.
So that's it. I purposely left off some of the talented RBs that have had some injury concerns (Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, both top 10 talents, but perpetually injured). In my experience, I'd rather not worry about when a guy is going to get hurt and instead rely on consistent production from the stars I can field every week with great results.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN - Peterson has thrived the past few years with some stellar years based solely on talent. He's got no semblance of a passing game to open the field up for him, and defenses know he's coming, but still they can't stop him. If Sage Rosenfels can take some pressure off of him, we could see an even bigger year from AP. He's a bit of an injury risk, but still more than worthy of your top pick.
Projection: 1,8oo total yards, 14 TDs.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC - Probably your best bet as a top pick in PPR leagues because he catches a ton of balls. Jones-Drew finally has the starting job all to himself and I'm guessing he goes nuts with all the carries. If David Garrard can avoid turnovers like he did in 2007, my guess is that MJD can carry for over 1,200 yards and get more than 600 yards receiving.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 16 TDs
3. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD - I don't buy that LT is done. Past his prime? Maybe. But definitely not done. The great thing about LT is that even in a "down" year like last year where he endured injuries, he still rushed for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. You can't miss if you take him, in my opinion, but just to be safe, target his backup (Darren Sproles) or make sure you have at least three high-quality options at running back, because he's more of an injury risk now than ever before. If you're in a PPR league, he's gotta be in your top 2 running backs off the board.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs
4. Chris Johnson, TEN - He's probably the number one pick if your league counts bonus points for plays over 20 yards, but regardless CJ is interesting. He produced almost 1,500 total yards last year rushing and receiving, caught 43 balls, and scored 10 combined TDs. LenDale White's presence would seem to diminish his value, and I recommend handcuffing him very early... But because Tennessee has among the best line's in football and can string out defenses with Nate Washington, this year could be even better for Chris Johnson.
Projection: 1,700 total yards, 10 TDs.
5. Michael Turner, ATL - This is a running back that, in spite of his outstanding numbers last year, I'm going to avoid in the first round. I love what he did last year. He'll probably do great again this year. But I have my doubts about his durability, and the fact that he amassed 376 carries last year doesn't help my fears. He played like a horse and in all situations. But TDs fluctuate more than anything in fantasy football (I call it the "Thomas Jones Rule"), so you can't rely on him scoring 17 TDs again. Definitely easy to wait on him until late in the first round in PPR leagues, though with only 6 catches last year. Still probably a top 5 back, but I don't like taking health risks with my first round pick.
Projection: 1,600 total yards, 11 TDs.
6. DeAngelo Williams, CAR - The D-train carries the most intrigue of any fantasy running back this year. Can he repeat his 2008 season? The answer is: not likely. But, he'll still be a productive and hopefully consistent back. Three things I love about Williams and his situation: 1. He's in a timeshare. What? Yes, I believe it will keep him fresh and he'll be able to run without much difficulty in the playoff weeks because he's not getting strained in the opening weeks. 2. He gets yards. Thomas Jones Rule, again. 3. Steve Smith. A dynamic receiver and a deep threat makes Carolina's offense all the more dangerous. Teams sell out to stop Smith, leaving room to run for Williams.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 12 TDs.
7. Matt Forte, CHI - I read somewhere that drafting Forte was more about drafting someone with a "high floor" than someone with a "high ceiling." It's an interesting take on it. In PPR leagues, Forte is a top 3 back. Maybe even better than that, as he had more catches than any other RB last year. What will the addition of Jay Cutler do to Forte's production? Maybe not much will change, that's my bet, anyway. Cutler likes to chuck it downfield, so Forte probably loses some of the dump-offs that he got from Orton, but he's still the featured back with no real threat to steal red-zone carries. No, he's not flashy, but he's got a "high floor" meaning he's never really going to kill you.
Projection: 1,800 total yards, 8 TDs.
8. Steve Slaton, HOU - Houston has a potentially great fantasy offense. I say "potentially" because so many of their guys are injury-prone. Slaton seems to be the exception. He gashed a few good defenses last year and continued to be relevant well into the last week of the playoffs. He will probably continue to have a solid career and as long as he has the starting gig and the offense stays healthy (the Andre Johnson Rule), he'll continue to put up good numbers. He's probably the 3rd or 4th back off the board in PPR leagues.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 11 TDs.
9. Pierre Thomas, NO - In a pass-happy offense, do you really want the running back that isn't Reggie Bush? Yes. Maybe let some other RBs go before you take him. He's still fairly low-profile, so you'll still have an excellent chance to get him in the second round if you take a Larry Fitzgerald-type in the first round. He's versatile, he plays on a fast track in a good offense, and he's got a quarterback that spreads the field so he gets room. He also played VERY well in the playoff weeks last year. He was a focal point of the offense late in the year, so he should be featured early this year. A good guy to get if you go with an elite receiver in the first round.
Projection: 1,300 total yards, 14 TDs
10. Frank Gore, SF - I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about his stats this year, though. I think it's mainly Michael Crabtree's fault. Who else have they got that's a legit playmaker? No one. No matter who wins the QB job, Gore will still be the center of the offense. He should get around 320-350 carries this year, barring health concerns, which translates to a very good fantasy season for any NFL back. Take him late in the first round and forget about him.
Projection: 1,500 total yards, 9 TDs.
So that's it. I purposely left off some of the talented RBs that have had some injury concerns (Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, both top 10 talents, but perpetually injured). In my experience, I'd rather not worry about when a guy is going to get hurt and instead rely on consistent production from the stars I can field every week with great results.
Top 10 Fantasy Quarterbacks
Please, keep in mind that I'm not guaranteeing this will be the top 10 scoring quarterbacks this season, but just those who I feel have the best chance to produce.
1. Drew Brees, NO - Brees was a consistency king last year and if Marques Colston and Reggie Bush stay healthy all year, he should continue to produce. He's got a good (not great) offensive line, an AWFUL defense behind him and a coach who isn't afraid to let him throw a lot.
Projection: 4,400 yards, 38 TDs, 22 Turnovers.
2. Tom Brady, NE - The knee issues aside, he's got it all. An All-World receiver in Randy Moss, a horrible running game that forces him to keep throwing, an offensive line that keeps him fairly well-protected and a defense that is more than capable of causing turnovers, allowing him more opportunities. The addition of Joey Galloway probably doesn't hurt his value, either.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 30 TDs, 10 Turnovers.
3. Peyton Manning, IND - He's human?! No, I still don't buy that. He is freakishly good. It's his supporting cast that has me a little worried. Losing Marvin Harrison is a bigger deal than everyone is talking about, and Dallas Clark will have to become a bigger part of the offense (provided he can stay healthy). I could definitely see the coaching staff sticking to a ground game much more than Tony Dungy did, too. I hope not, though because Peyton is the best of the best when he chucks the pigskin to everyone in a matching jersey.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 28 TDs, 11 Turnovers.
4. Kurt Warner, ARI - What a fantastic campaign last year! Age is always a concern with him, but when your team sports the BEST trio of receivers in the league, and you have a quick release, you tend to make up for your age. The presence of Larry Fitzgerald (barring a Madden-Cursed year) alone makes Warner a dangerous and consistent player, but the fact that the running game has struggled so much in recent years and shows no signs of getting better means that Warner should continue his arial assault on the NFL's pass defenses. He's still somewhat turnover-prone, though, but his numbers are so gaudy it covers up the turnovers well.
Projection: 4,300 yards, 31 TDs, 24 Turnovers.
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Surprised? Don't be. Rodgers showed he's the real deal and he's still got a receiving corps that's fairly underrated. Plus, he gets to face the Lions twice. His value will probably fall slightly when the weather turns nasty in Green Bay, and he may yield some scores to RB Ryan Grant, who barely sniffed the end zone last season. Rodgers also showed some decent wheels with a fair amount of rush yards (it's a bonus!) and a few rushing TDs.
Projection: 3,800 yards, 27 TDs, 18 Turnovers.
6. Philip Rivers, SD - Things to love about Rivers: 1. He's motivated to win (Eli and Ben already have 3 combined Super Bowls), 2. He's got great weapons (Gates, LT, Sproles, and the emerging Vincent Jackson), 3. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and is hot-headed. Things to hate about Rivers: 1. LT is still LT, no matter what anyone tells you, 2. Norv Turner is still Norv Turner, and 3. For a dude that's been around so long, he's still fairly immature in terms of his behavior. Still, I think he takes a few steps forward this year as LT ages and Rivers takes control.
Projection: 3,700 yards, 26 TDs, 18 Turnovers.
7. Matt Schaub, HOU - Andre Johnson is healthy? Schaub is healthy? If your answer is yes, you've got a very good combination and a quarterback that can establish himself (finally!) this year. Now, taking Schaub remains a big risk because of his injury history, but after the top tier of quarterbacks are gone, Schaub has the biggest bullet in the chamber with Johnson. Don't forget that he's got a defense that gives up some points, too, in spite of being slightly improved.
Projection: 3,400 yards, 26 TDs, 20 Turnovers.
8. Tony Romo, DAL - Weird situation for Romo, isn't it? He's a very good quarterback (or so we're told) and he's put up some excellent numbers in the past. Terrell Owens is gone, which means less distraction, but is Roy Williams a good enough replacement? Also, there are three very good running backs crowded into the backfield with Romo, likely meaning that he'll throw less this year. He's got a good supporting cast, but he's got no excuse if he's lousy this year.
Projection: 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 21 Turnovers.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - This is probably one of the few places you'll see Big Ben listed so high. No, it's not because I'm a Pittsburgh homer. The dude is just plain good. The running attack is fairly lousy in Pittsburgh lately and the receivers, especially Holmes and rookie Mike Wallace are capable of stretching defenses. His offensive line is potentially detrimental to his health and numbers, but he'll probably need to be the offense for the Steelers and, as usual, he'll deliver.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 22 TDs, 17 Turnovers.
10. Matt Ryan, ATL - I hope he avoids the sophomore slump. Roddy White has proven to be probably the third most-valuable receiver in the league and his mere presence opens the door for Atlanta's offense. Plus, if defenses are too preoccupied trying to stop Michale Turner, Ryan has a great play-action move that opens up the offense even more. His defense is fairly lousy, so expect top-10 numbers from him this year.
Projection: 3,300 yards, 21 TDs, 20 Turnovers.
So that's my top 10 QBs. There are some names that are conspicuous in their absence, so feel free to start the debate!
1. Drew Brees, NO - Brees was a consistency king last year and if Marques Colston and Reggie Bush stay healthy all year, he should continue to produce. He's got a good (not great) offensive line, an AWFUL defense behind him and a coach who isn't afraid to let him throw a lot.
Projection: 4,400 yards, 38 TDs, 22 Turnovers.
2. Tom Brady, NE - The knee issues aside, he's got it all. An All-World receiver in Randy Moss, a horrible running game that forces him to keep throwing, an offensive line that keeps him fairly well-protected and a defense that is more than capable of causing turnovers, allowing him more opportunities. The addition of Joey Galloway probably doesn't hurt his value, either.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 30 TDs, 10 Turnovers.
3. Peyton Manning, IND - He's human?! No, I still don't buy that. He is freakishly good. It's his supporting cast that has me a little worried. Losing Marvin Harrison is a bigger deal than everyone is talking about, and Dallas Clark will have to become a bigger part of the offense (provided he can stay healthy). I could definitely see the coaching staff sticking to a ground game much more than Tony Dungy did, too. I hope not, though because Peyton is the best of the best when he chucks the pigskin to everyone in a matching jersey.
Projection: 4,200 yards, 28 TDs, 11 Turnovers.
4. Kurt Warner, ARI - What a fantastic campaign last year! Age is always a concern with him, but when your team sports the BEST trio of receivers in the league, and you have a quick release, you tend to make up for your age. The presence of Larry Fitzgerald (barring a Madden-Cursed year) alone makes Warner a dangerous and consistent player, but the fact that the running game has struggled so much in recent years and shows no signs of getting better means that Warner should continue his arial assault on the NFL's pass defenses. He's still somewhat turnover-prone, though, but his numbers are so gaudy it covers up the turnovers well.
Projection: 4,300 yards, 31 TDs, 24 Turnovers.
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Surprised? Don't be. Rodgers showed he's the real deal and he's still got a receiving corps that's fairly underrated. Plus, he gets to face the Lions twice. His value will probably fall slightly when the weather turns nasty in Green Bay, and he may yield some scores to RB Ryan Grant, who barely sniffed the end zone last season. Rodgers also showed some decent wheels with a fair amount of rush yards (it's a bonus!) and a few rushing TDs.
Projection: 3,800 yards, 27 TDs, 18 Turnovers.
6. Philip Rivers, SD - Things to love about Rivers: 1. He's motivated to win (Eli and Ben already have 3 combined Super Bowls), 2. He's got great weapons (Gates, LT, Sproles, and the emerging Vincent Jackson), 3. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and is hot-headed. Things to hate about Rivers: 1. LT is still LT, no matter what anyone tells you, 2. Norv Turner is still Norv Turner, and 3. For a dude that's been around so long, he's still fairly immature in terms of his behavior. Still, I think he takes a few steps forward this year as LT ages and Rivers takes control.
Projection: 3,700 yards, 26 TDs, 18 Turnovers.
7. Matt Schaub, HOU - Andre Johnson is healthy? Schaub is healthy? If your answer is yes, you've got a very good combination and a quarterback that can establish himself (finally!) this year. Now, taking Schaub remains a big risk because of his injury history, but after the top tier of quarterbacks are gone, Schaub has the biggest bullet in the chamber with Johnson. Don't forget that he's got a defense that gives up some points, too, in spite of being slightly improved.
Projection: 3,400 yards, 26 TDs, 20 Turnovers.
8. Tony Romo, DAL - Weird situation for Romo, isn't it? He's a very good quarterback (or so we're told) and he's put up some excellent numbers in the past. Terrell Owens is gone, which means less distraction, but is Roy Williams a good enough replacement? Also, there are three very good running backs crowded into the backfield with Romo, likely meaning that he'll throw less this year. He's got a good supporting cast, but he's got no excuse if he's lousy this year.
Projection: 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 21 Turnovers.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - This is probably one of the few places you'll see Big Ben listed so high. No, it's not because I'm a Pittsburgh homer. The dude is just plain good. The running attack is fairly lousy in Pittsburgh lately and the receivers, especially Holmes and rookie Mike Wallace are capable of stretching defenses. His offensive line is potentially detrimental to his health and numbers, but he'll probably need to be the offense for the Steelers and, as usual, he'll deliver.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 22 TDs, 17 Turnovers.
10. Matt Ryan, ATL - I hope he avoids the sophomore slump. Roddy White has proven to be probably the third most-valuable receiver in the league and his mere presence opens the door for Atlanta's offense. Plus, if defenses are too preoccupied trying to stop Michale Turner, Ryan has a great play-action move that opens up the offense even more. His defense is fairly lousy, so expect top-10 numbers from him this year.
Projection: 3,300 yards, 21 TDs, 20 Turnovers.
So that's my top 10 QBs. There are some names that are conspicuous in their absence, so feel free to start the debate!
Fantasy Factor Blog
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (yes, I'm from the Steel City) has an excellent blog dedicated entirely to Fantasy Sports called the Fantasy Factor.
I highly recommend checking it out.
I've posted a link to the Fantasy Factor's RSS feed on the right side of my blog. Make sure you open the link in a new tab or window so you can come back here after you read some of Nick
I highly recommend checking it out.
I've posted a link to the Fantasy Factor's RSS feed on the right side of my blog. Make sure you open the link in a new tab or window so you can come back here after you read some of Nick
Before We Begin, A Reality Check
Stop.
Before you continue reading this, think about how much time you're likely to spend on fantasy football this season.
...
Done yet?
I'll wait...
Yeah, if you're like me, it's a LOT of time.
I'm asking because I think that anyone who comes to me for fantasy advice should have a fair warning: Fantasy sports can be addicting. Honestly, I've skipped studying for final exams in college to simply spend a few extra hours coming up with every POSSIBLE combination that I felt could help me win my league.
Guess what?
After more than 6 years in the same league, as a supposed sports "guru," I've still never won my family league. Always in contention, but never coming out on top. It's frustrating, to say the least.
But, this is why I'm giving you this disclaimer.
I've wasted far too much time on fantasy sports, but for me it's probably not such a big deal as it could be for you.
Now, I don't know you, but let's assume you're a normal person with a job, a family and all the commitments that go along with your pursuit of the American Dream.
DO NOT IGNORE YOUR FAMILY FOR FANTASY SPORTS!
DO NOT IGNORE WORK FOR FANTASY SPORTS!
My point is those things are real! They depend on you, you have a responsibility to be there for them. The thing about fantasy sports (even though they feel so important to us), is that fantasy is just that: Fantasy.
Yes, it's something that you should pay attention to, but wait until after the kids have gone to bed, at least. Enjoy the real things in life!
Understood? Good.
Now, the main part of this blog. In upcoming posts, look for football draft day strategy, rankings and once the season begins, I'll answer questions, give game previews, studs, duds and sleepers for each week. I'll try to keep on a regular schedule and post as often as possible. Get ready for some greatness, people. Fantasy football season is almost here.
Before you continue reading this, think about how much time you're likely to spend on fantasy football this season.
...
Done yet?
I'll wait...
Yeah, if you're like me, it's a LOT of time.
I'm asking because I think that anyone who comes to me for fantasy advice should have a fair warning: Fantasy sports can be addicting. Honestly, I've skipped studying for final exams in college to simply spend a few extra hours coming up with every POSSIBLE combination that I felt could help me win my league.
Guess what?
After more than 6 years in the same league, as a supposed sports "guru," I've still never won my family league. Always in contention, but never coming out on top. It's frustrating, to say the least.
But, this is why I'm giving you this disclaimer.
I've wasted far too much time on fantasy sports, but for me it's probably not such a big deal as it could be for you.
Now, I don't know you, but let's assume you're a normal person with a job, a family and all the commitments that go along with your pursuit of the American Dream.
DO NOT IGNORE YOUR FAMILY FOR FANTASY SPORTS!
DO NOT IGNORE WORK FOR FANTASY SPORTS!
My point is those things are real! They depend on you, you have a responsibility to be there for them. The thing about fantasy sports (even though they feel so important to us), is that fantasy is just that: Fantasy.
Yes, it's something that you should pay attention to, but wait until after the kids have gone to bed, at least. Enjoy the real things in life!
Understood? Good.
Now, the main part of this blog. In upcoming posts, look for football draft day strategy, rankings and once the season begins, I'll answer questions, give game previews, studs, duds and sleepers for each week. I'll try to keep on a regular schedule and post as often as possible. Get ready for some greatness, people. Fantasy football season is almost here.
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