The Problem with Trading

I have something you need to make your team better.
You have something I need to make MY team better.
Interestingly, we're completely unable to make a deal that's acceptable to both sides.

Why?

Scott Burton of Football Outsiders and ESPN.com Insider wrote a very interesting theory about the difficulties involved with trading. Burton uses an interesting metaphor to describe it:

14,000 people stood in line for tickets to an exclusive event. Half of them would get tickets based on a random lottery. Before the lottery to decide who would get tickets, presumably everyone would agree to pay the same amount for the tickets. Everyone's time is just as valuable and everyone wants the tickets just as much as the others.
But after? Surprisingly, the people who LOST the lottery were only willing to pay about $200 for the tickets, while people who WON were ASKING about 10 times that amount. What's the difference, though? The difference is that people are much less willing to part with what they OWN. This connection is an irrational, emotional connection, according to Burton.

We don't play Fantasy Football with emotion, though. We play with numbers. And here's the main problem: Some owners, especially the ones who drafted stars that aren't performing, are very reluctant to ditch the stars they have an emotional connection to. This makes people unwilling to trade an under-performing Roddy White and his 119 yards and 1 in exchange for Mario Manningham and his 300 yards and 2 TDs.
The evidence is there that Manningham is a more reliable receiver than White. White has struggled since the addition of Tony Gonzalez. Worse, the Atlanta offense didn't struggle until they played the Patriots while White was offering little contribution. Yes, they probably used their bye week to figure out how to get him more involved.

Roddy White was ranked as a top 4 WR (in my book, anyway) in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 80th. Manningham wasn't even actually ranked in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 7th. So, really, isn't it foolish NOT to trade for him if you're a White owner? If you have legit playoff aspirations, you simply can't hold on to, or keep starting, players that simply aren't producing. Fantasy football is played with numbers, not emotions or projections.

Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em: Week 4

Abridged version this week. Start your studs. All of them. No matter what the matchup is. Unless they're on a bye week.

Ride 'Em:

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - He's playing against the worst pass defense in the league in Detroit.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - It's tough to run on Tennessee, but they give up big plays in the passing game and lots of TDs through the air.

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - St. Louis has a horrid defense all around. It's pretty amazing they keep drafting defensive players, but still never get better...

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Cleveland's run defense is god-awful.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Houston's run defense is god-awful-er.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - He's finally gonna have a good game!

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Shootout is likely in this one and Marshall is due for another good game.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC - See David Garrard, above.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Matt Schaub is going to find whoever ISN'T being covered by CB Asomugha.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Detroit's defense is still poor against the pass.

Anthony Fasano, TE, MIA - Buffalo is the worst in the league against the TE.

Kevin Boss, TE, NYG - Hasn't shown it yet, but a breakout could happen this weekend.

Rest 'Em:

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - NYG pass rush is fierce and Bowe might be out again.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Miami is good against the run and now he shares the load with Lynch.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Minnesota is good against the run and this could be the Aaron Rodgers show.

Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Shredded Pittsburgh last time, but LT is back.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - He's facing a Chargers D that is very good against the pass, and Pittsburgh may run all day against crippled defensive front.

Marques Colston, WR, OAK - Likely matched up against Revis all day, meaning poor numbers and few targets.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL - Still kind of overrated and Denver's pass defense has been pretty good.

John Carlson, TE, IND - Indy is really good against TEs and Seattle should be trying to run it down their throats most of the day.

It's Week 4, They are (not) who you thought they were.

Sorry I haven't been active the last few days (Jewish High Holidays, family issues) but I'm back.
So, it's week 4. You've got three weeks of data to use when trying to set your fantasy lineups this week. By now, you know who can throw, catch and run, and who can play defense. Of course, with extra information, you get bye weeks. Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia and Atlanta are all off this week. These are fantasy juggernaut teams, littered with first and second-round picks. Which means you need to turn to some waiver wire pickups, some fantasy underachievers and some otherwise undesirable players to help your fantasy team to victory.

Strong Plays

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Ahmad Bradshaw is hurting and KC offers little resistance. He's under-achieved so far, but he should have a second consecutive strong outing this week.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Could be great against a poor Detroit pass defense. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are strong plays, as well. Even the much-maligned Matt Forte should have a decent game, in spite of Detroit having a stronger-than-expected run defense.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - Oakland is much better against the pass than the run, so I could see him having his first 100-yard game this week, and maybe a TD or two.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Cincinnati has been running effectively, and he even did well against Pittsburgh last week. A TD is almost guaranteed and a hundred yards seems very likely.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Tennessee is absolutely terrible against the pass, so I think good things are in store for him, Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis this week.

Glen Coffee, RB, SF - He's getting a full workload this week with Gore sidelined with an injury and the Rams have proven they can be run on.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - They're having a hard time moving the ball through the air, so Moreno and backfield mate Correll Buckhalter should get lots of touches this week.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - The Houston (poor excuse for a) defense has surrendered two of the biggest fantasy games of the year to running backs this season. At the very least, he should have 100 yards of total offense.

Don't Buy the Hype on:

Vernon Davis, TE, SF - I think it was Minnesota's coverage schemes that allowed Davis to get open and score twice last week. Lots of owners rushed to pick him up, but don't feel bad if you missed out on him. I have my doubts that he'll repeat this week.

Jason Campbell, QB, WAS and Santana Moss, WR, WAS - Detroit was the most beatable pass defense in the league last year and they haven't done anything to show it's improved this year. Yeah, Moss went off last week, and Campbell played well enough to win a few people their leagues, but unless you are absolutely desperate (Own Matt Hasselbeck AND Donovan McNabb, for example, and missed out on Kevin Kolb) you don't start this guy. Sorry, I don't like the Redskins offense even a little.

Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Don't love him this week even a little. All the signs are there for him to have a 2-3 INT game. #1. It's a revenge game for him, meaning he might try to squeeze some throws in that he otherwise wouldn't attempt. #2. He has thrown only one pick this year, but this defense robbed similar QB Jay Cutler 4 times in week 1. #3. Adrian Peterson could have a good day running the ball as GB gives up a lot on the ground. Bottom line: Just because he was the hero last week, doesn't mean he's into your starting lineups this week.

I'll have more fantasy advice and info later this week, and my Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em will come out early this week, as I'll be out of town Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday Quick Hits

3:47 left in the 2nd Quarter of the Houston vs. Jacksonville Game:
- One of the great things about owning a piece (or several pieces) of the Houston passing offense is how horrible their defense is. Schaub and the Houston offense in the last 6 quarters have changed leads consistently, which leads to plenty of opportunities for the passing game to shine.
- Kevin Walter is having a nice first game back from injury. Hopefully the aforementioned defense continues to hemorrhage points, meaning more work for the offense.
- Frank Gore has been the best rusher in the NFL through the first two weeks. But he left the game Saturday against Minnesota in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Add Glen Coffee immediately if you're a Gore owner, because if the injury lingers, Gore's not going to be easy to replace.
- Kyle Boller replaced Marc Bulger at QB for the Rams today. Bulger sustained an injury, but this was coming for a long time, in my opinion. He immediately led the Rams on two nice scoring drives. This could be the situation Boller was missing in Baltimore, so he's a guy to keep your eye on in deep leagues.
- Detroit is shutting out Washington right now. Yeah, Washington might be the NEW worst team in the league. If you own Santana Moss or, really, any Redskin offensive players, sell them off cheap (if you can). Or feel free to drop them. I have no problem with that.
- ON CUE: Jason Campbell passed to Santana Moss for a 57-yard touchdown. Hmph. Still, it's against the Lions. Sell while the price is moderately above low.
- Andre Johnson doesn't play great against the Jags, for whatever reason. He's doing okay today, but Shaub now has 3 TD passes, none of them went to Johnson. Schaub is the poor man's Drew Brees, I think, as he's got nothing specific going on in the run game.
- Tony Gonzalez is without a catch in the first half against the Pats. I'm not watching closely, but they don't appear to be targeting him. Michael Turner scored in that game, which makes me feel better about him.
- Donald Driver is officially no longer underrated. In consecutive weeks, he's scored along with plenty of yards.
- Adrian Peterson has 11 rushes for only 59 yards. Chris Johnson has 10 rushes for 48 yards. These were the two top scoring RBs in weeks 1 and 2. Goes to show how unpredictable the NFL really is.
- I still think that San Francisco and Minnesota is a playoff preview. They both play great defense and you can't expect great things from your players against these defenses.
- Brandon Jacobs has officially joined the 2009 season with a TD and 70 yards on 20 attempts. But Ahmad Bradshaw still looks like the better option at RB for the Giants. He has 8 carries for 81 yards and has run with more authority. UPDATE: Jacobs is inching toward 100 yards, but he's doing it 2 yards at a time.
- Willis McGahee is a consistency king. 2 TDs in three straight weeks.
- I doubt you need to be told, but keep playing your RBs against Houston. Maurice Jones-Drew just scored his second TD of the day and has 81 yards rushing. It's gonna be like this for a while, I think (hope).
- Steve Smith (the Little Giant, as I want to call him) seems like the receiver to own in New York, especially in PPR leagues. He's got 7 catches for 68 yards and just converted on 3rd Down. Eli likes him in those situations.
- The Giants have 22 first downs right now. The Bucs? 1. Seriously. 1. Giants have a good defense, but ONE first down in 3 quarters? Bench Leftwich, PLEASE!!
- Kelley Washington has a quiet 5 catches for 66 yards for Baltimore. He's been something of a favorite target for Joe Flacco. And he made a great adjustment and nearly hauled in a poorly thrown ball in the end zone.
- Percy Harvin has 3 TDs in 3 NFL games. He just returned a kickoff for 101 yards. I'll do all I can to sit him next week, so everyone else can continue to reap the benefits.
- DeSean Jackson is someone you start each week from here out. He's got 6 catches for 149 yards and a TD. It doesn't matter who's throwing to him, he's okay.
- Tony Gonzalez finally got his first catch! It was for 16 yards. Woo!
- MJD is over the century mark and has three TDs. One would assume that Darren McFadden has a big game in his VERY near future, right?
- Derrick Mason just joined DeSean Jackson and Santana Moss as 100+ yard receivers. Joe Flacco hit him for a 72-yard score, giving Flacco 342 yards on the day.
- Josh Johnson is in at QB for the Bucs. See? People listen when I blog!
- Kevin Kolb just threw his second TD of the game. He's also run for one. Brent Celek now has over 100 yards on 8 catches, and a TD. Not bad for a guy you could have found on waivers after your draft.
- Flacco's day is done in Baltimore. Another week, another 30+ points. A visit to the field from Troy Smith. This team is scary, but they haven't exactly faced the best competition yet, have they? Have they even faced mediocre competition yet?
- Vernon Davis has two TDs against Minnesota and 88 yards on 6 catches. This guy was in the dog house last year, but apparently the new, improved Davis is playing well and getting red zone attention.
- 7:04 to go in the fourth quarter in Houston, and I'm excited to maybe see another Matt Schaub drive for a game-tying TD. He got sacked on the last possession and maybe the hit will get in his head. It will have to be a long drive if he hopes to tie the game. The Texans are starting at their own 11.
- It was one completion and out for the Texans, as Schaub got sacked again, this time by Clint Ingram on third down. MJD and the Jags can bleed some clock and with a few first downs, they could run it out.
- Mostly garbage time stuff, but Matt Cassel has 2 TDs, too. Only 90 yards passing, though. The Eagles secondary is tough, and without his best receiver, it's been a rough day for KC.
- John Kuhn (formerly of the Steelers, now of the Packers) has 2 short TDs today. You couldn't possibly have predicted that, and no one expects to see that again, so don't get excited.
- Keary Collins just turned it over for the second time today. It's the fourth turnover of the day for Tennessee. If they can't hold onto the ball, they'll have no shot at winning another GAME much less the division.
- Not sure if I mentioned this already, but Mark Sanchez is having a useful fantasy day. He's thrown 2 TDs and rushed for one more, but he's also turned the ball over twice.
-2:00 left in New York and the Jets hold a 7-point lead. Titans ball on their own 33 yard line and it's 3rd down and 23 yards. 2 incomplete passes by Collins. Turnover on downs.
- The Texans got one more chance to get back into this game, but they made the mistake of trusting one of their RBs at the goal line. Chris Brown fumbled this time. This is good news for no one. It means that teams will start ripping at the ball more often and playing the pass near the goal line.
- One of the worst feelings you can have in fantasy football is being up while your opponent still has players left. It's truly awful. I'm up by nearly 70 right now, but if Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, and John Carlson go off (and Lewis Murphy plays adequately) I could be cooked. Boy, I wish Houston's coaches would have called a pass play near the goal line...

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week 3

Cleveland at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:
Ravens Defense - Jamaal Lewis is doubtful, thus eliminating all Cleveland offensive threats.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - A good matchup, but they might just decide to run the ball all day...

Rest 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - After two weeks he's pretty much shown that last year wasn't the fluke year we all thought it was.

Washington at Detroit
Ride 'Em:
Santana Moss, WR, WAS - If he can't do it here, he's not gonna do it anywhere (indoor, fast track, lousy secondary on bad defense)

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - Detroit wants to run the ball, and Steven Jackson put up 104 on them last week on 17 carries.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - I try not to be obvious with my picks because if you have him you, you start him. But this matchup should be great unless DT Haynesworth becomes dominant again.

Rest 'Em:
Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - Portis may be seriously showing his age. He's questionable and even if he plays, Detroit did an okay job of defending Adrian Peterson, so is Portis going to be better?

Jacksonville at Houston
Ride 'Em:
Torry Holt, WR, JAC - I've got a feeling that he scores here. Nate Washington did it last week against the Texans.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Jacksonville has been fairly brutal against the pass, so far. No reason to expect that to change here.

Rest 'Em:
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU and Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Slaton needs a week on your bench after catching fumble-itis... Just make sure it's not contagious. Walter is just coming back from injury and still hasn't made it through a full week of practice... Don't rush him back until he plays a full game.

San Francisco at Minnesota
Ride 'Em:
Brett Favre, QB, MIN - It's not going to be easy to run on the Niners. The short passing game will work okay, though, and that's Favre's specialty right now.

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - It's not going to be easy to run on the Vikes. The short to intermediate passing game will work okay, though. These teams really are mirrors of each other. This could be an NFC Title game preview.

Rest 'Em:
Frank Gore, RB, SF - I was up on him last week and he produced big time, but unfortunately, it's not quite as easy to run on Minnesota.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - Scores in two straight weeks. I don't really expect that to continue, as he's only getting a few looks per game.

Atlanta at New England
Ride 'Em:
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL - The Patriots pass defense has been very beatable. Actually, their defense as a whole has been very beatable. Ryan should exploit some holes in the secondary.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Turner could beat down this front seven for a while, then break some big runs as long as they stay with the run.

Rest 'Em:
Any Patriots you have - I'm so sick of the Patriots coaching staff announcing injuries that aren't there and not announcing injuries that ARE there. I can't deal with it. Randy Moss, Wes Welker are both listed as questionable, but I expect at least Moss will play. It could be worse, at least it's an early game...

Kansas City at Philadelphia
Ride 'Em:
Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI - Put up some decent numbers last week. Plus, the nonexistent KC pass rush shouldn't hurt his cause.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Well, someone needs to do well on the KC offense. Colston had two TDs last week, so he has a chance.

Rest 'Em:
Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - Surprise! He's hurting and he's probably lacking explosiveness and won't actually be needed.

Green Bay at St. Louis
Ride 'Em:
Greg Jennings, WR, GB - St. Louis pass rush is weak and he had a poor game against Cincinnati last week, so I expect him to play with a vengeance in this game.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Cedric Benson put up 141 against the Packers last week, so the explosive Jackson could have a chance if they don't get behind too early.

Rest 'Em:
Donnie Avery, WR, STL - He hasn't done anything noticeable this season and GB secondary is good.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:
Eli Manning, QB, NYG - He's on fire, and the Bucs don't have a good defense anymore. His emerging targets should continue to produce, too.

Derrick Ward, RB, TB - He's starting this game with Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham hurting, so he's got a chance to produce if he gets 20 carries, even against stout defense.

Rest 'Em:
Byron Leftwich, QB, TB - Bad matchup against phenomenal pass rush. He's been doing well, but lack of mobility hurts against speedy rushers.

Tennessee at New York Jets
Ride 'Em:
Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ - Tennessee's vulnerable through the air and not much else... And QB Sanchez may use him a security blanket along with RB Washington.

Rest 'Em:
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - After a historic game last week, the speedster might get held in check against a Jets defense that hasn't allowed a TD yet.

New Orleans at Buffalo
Ride 'Em:
Marques Colston, WR, NO - Drew Brees said he trusts him more than any of his other receivers, and I trust him more than Buffalo's secondary.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Last chance to make an impact before Lynch returns, and Buffalo will need to play ball-control if they want to keep up with NO offense.

Rest 'Em:
Either team's defense - Both had decent games in recent weeks, but unusable here as this will likely be a shootout.

Chicago at Seattle
Ride 'Em:
John Carlson, TE, SEA - Seneca Wallace starting means a conservative offense, but Carlson should still be active and productive.

Rest 'Em:
Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - Seattle defense and homefield advantage will make it tougher on Cutler in this one.

Denver at Oakland
Ride 'Em:
Broncos Defense - Russell hasn't been playing well at all, they produced some sacks against Cleveland and Oakland is missing G Gallery.

Rest 'Em:
Any Raiders offensive player - RB Darren McFadden looked uninspired against the Chiefs, WR Louis Murphy is unreliable and TE Zach Miller didn't have a catch. I expect better this week, but not much.

Miami at San Diego
Ride 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - SD Defense has some injuries and Brown has to be considered the straw that stirs Miami's drink.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - Really, I just like touting this guy. You probably got him in the 5th or 6th round, but are getting 2nd round production from him. Love it.

Rest 'Em:
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, MIA - Over 100 yards last week, but he wasn't as good as the box score. He dropped a lot of balls, and was unreliable in the red zone, too.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:
Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Historically, if there's a game against the Bengals, Parker gets into gear against them.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - He's could be a good play as he usually does really well in his home state of Ohio.

Rest 'Em:
Pittsburgh Defense - Holding the score down, but not causing a ton of sacks or turnovers, and less explosive without S Polamalu.

Indianapolis at Arizona
Ride 'Em:
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Had a poor outing last week, but should be more involved in offense this week. Only potential problem: He's had a hard time with CB McFadden in the past ('05 playoffs)

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Colts can be run on and Wells fumbled his way out of carries last week, so expect a decent game from Hightower.

Rest 'Em:
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, RBs, IND - Arizona plays pretty good run defense at home, so tough to expect much from this duo.

Spin-juries: Down Goes Barber

One big injury this week:

Injury: Marion Barber, RB, DAL - He was off to the races Sunday night, on his way to scoring his second TD of the night when everything turned to suck. He keeled over, untouched by a defender, and grabbed his leg. This wasn't pretty.

Spin: Barber will likely miss 1-2 weeks as a result of a quad strain. It's bad news for his owners, unless they managed to secure Felix Jones and/or Tashard Choice as his backup. If Jones can get 15-20 carries, he's practically a must-start, as he's a threat to score any time he touches the ball. The worse news for Barber owners is that Jones has a really good chance to excel while Barber's out. That means more carries for Jones, even when Barber returns.

Double Takes: Reviewing Week 2

I just want to take a second to let you bask in the glory of this week and the beauty of fantasy football. It changes so much from week to week. I can truly say that I DON'T hate to say "I Told You So!"

So, if you had a poor week one and rebounded for a huge week 2, you shouldn't be surprised. Brace yourself, because this is how the whole season tends to go.

Players who Wow-ed:

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - This guy is so All-World it hurts. Also, Houston's general apathy when he lined up on the outside helped tremendously. Don't expect such ridiculous numbers again, but he should have some more big games throughout the rest of the season.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Apparently, the Jets Defense IS that good. Being away from Darrelle Revis helped Andre Johnson break out again for 10 catches and 149 yards, to go along with 2 TDs. You drafted him to be a stud, and a stud he was.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - This just in: passing is possible against the Titans. After allowing 363 yards to Ben Roethlisberger in week 1, TEN allowed 357 yards to Schaub and he had easily the best day of any QB, with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

Frank Gore, RB, SF - 207 yards on the ground against the Seahawks and 2 TDs. The Niners appear to be committed to the run, so his numbers shouldn't come as a surprise, nor should you expect them to drop off down the line. A minor injury late may scare some owners, but don't worry about it too much.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - 155 total yards and a touchdown against a very stout defense. He might have had another TD, too, but he apparently injured his hamstring on a run in the fourth quarter. Felix Jones becomes very valuable if Barber has to miss time.

Willis McGahee, RB, BAL - Unfortunately, he probably wasn't in your lineup. But, he's clearly the goal-line back in Baltimore, and he's going to continue to get playing time. Baltimore has some juicy matchups down the line, so look to acquire McGahee for a bye-week fill-in.

Mario Manningham and Steve Smith, WRs, NYG - Each had 10 catches, over 130 yards, and a TD. The running game wasn't working at all, so they were used on screens instead of a traditional handoff running game, especially Manningham. He's elusive and if Dominik Hixon's injury is serious, Manningham is an interesting add.

Marques Colston, WR, NO - Drew Brees is going to throw. He's going to throw a lot. He's going to throw a lot for Marques Colston. Obviously you can't complain, but an extra 2 yards would have pushed him over 100 yards, meaning yardage bonuses. Still, you can't argue with 2 TDs.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - You probably drafted him as a number 2 or 3 receiver, but you have to be pleasantly surprised by his #1 receiver-type numbers.

Players who Failed:

Greg Jennings, WR, GB - In what was allegedly an excellent matchup, he didn't manage a single catch. Credit the Bengals secondary and the Packer's O-line play for shutting him out.

Tom Brady, QB, NE - Yeah, even the incomparable Tom Brady is capable of having a poor outing now and again. He went up against an elite defense, so don't worry about this performance. Better days are ahead.

Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - 66 yards and an injury. Weak sauce. And maybe look to get LeSean McCoy if he's available.

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - 53 total yards after a 100-yard, 2 TD performance. Not a very good encore, especially considering what Fred Jackson did to them last weekend.

Randy Moss, WR, NE - If we've learned one thing so far this season, it's that Darrelle Revis is one HELL of a cover corner. He shuts down even the most elite receivers.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - 93 total yards, but he failed to cross the end zone, and losing a fumble hurts a lot.

Shocker of the Week:

Julian Edelman, WR, NE - 8 catches, 98 yards. Filling in for Wes Welker, Edelman was very good. Actually, I thought his numbers didn't do him justice and he could have been even better. He ran with some authority after the catch and he had some really slick moves. In a strange twist, he's also QB-eligible and owned in virtually 0% of fantasy leagues. If you are without Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck (or both), and you're in a PPR league, he might be worth a flier.

Monday Night Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em:

Ride 'Em:
Peyton Manning, QB, IND - Slinging the ball should be necessary against a Miami defense that is better at defending the run.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Duh. After that week 1, what's he going to do for an encore now that he's the only man in town.

Rest 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - Seems like Miami will have to pass to keep up with Manning's offense.

Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, MIA - He wasn't good last week, and he's not getting deep on the Colts.

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week Two

Carolina at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:
Atlanta Defense - Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and lost an interception last week against Philly. You decide what to do.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Atlanta's fast track won't hurt him, and we all know no one can overthrow him...

Rest 'Em:
Carolina Defense - Matt Ryan is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks, Roddy White and Michael Turner had semi-lousy games last week. My bet is that one of them (or all of them) go off this week.

Minnesota at Detroit
Ride 'Em:
Kevin Smith, RB, DET - He's got hands and they like to get him into the passing game, which is good because he's not gonna do much on the ground against the Vikings.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Big-time comeback this week after no catches last week.

Rest 'Em:
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Wow, total shocker, right? Yeah, that's because if you DO somehow sit this guy, I'll personally come and delete your team. You. Will. Fail. If. You. Sit. Him.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN - Maybe a cheap TD, but he won't be needed much, so maybe find someone better.

Cincinnati at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:
Cedrick Benson, RB, CIN - Cincy is still pretty committed to the run and will try to win time of possession game by pounding with Cedric 25+ times.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Comeback player of the year? Maybe a mention after a big game for the second week in a row.

Rest 'Em:
Donald Driver, WR, GB - Bengal corners are large, fast and underrated (as I've said before). Don't expect much from Driver, but Jennings may get deep a few times against weak safeties.

Arizona at Jacksonville
Ride 'Em:
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Arizona doesn't defend the run well on the road, Jacksonville will need to kill clock to keep it close against good offense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - After a poor game last week, injury should be better and impact should be big on offense.

Rest 'Em:
Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Don't buy into the 12-catch game last week. He may end up being a good receiver, but don't risk it with anything above a third RB or flex position until you see consistency.

Oakland at Kansas City
Ride 'Em:
Larry Johnson, RB, KC - No definitive word on Cassel yet, so Larry may carry the load.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, OAK - Anyone see what Joe Flacco did last week when there was no pass rush against him? I'll buy Russell this week, I think.

Rest 'Em:
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Still think he'll get a few catches, but Oakland's pass defense is tougher now with Seymour and Asomugha.

New England at New York Jets
Ride 'Em:
Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Welker is out so he should be Brady's go-to receiver on Sunday as Moss will be tied up with CB Revis, and QB eligible/

Kevin Faulk, RB, NE - Against blitz he could get some dumpoffs and turn them into yards and scores.

Rest 'Em:
NYJ Defense - Not against Brady, and could be in trouble if QB Sanchez throws a pick in a bad spot.

Randy Moss and Wes Welker, WRs, NE - Jets CB Revis shut down Andre Johnson last week and he'll stay on Moss as Welker sits with an injury.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
Ride 'Em:
Any offensive player in this game has a good shot to score for New Orleans.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Saints defense is nothing spectacular, and Philly may have to throw to keep up. With Kolb at QB, Celek and Westbrook may become his best receivers.

Rest 'Em:
Either team defense.

Houston at Tennessee
Ride 'Em:
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - He didn't run as poorly as it looked against Steelers, breaking a few big ones. And Houston's D is nothing compared to Pittsburgh.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - He's reportedly looked decent at practice, and Roethlisberger looked good when he had protection last week.

Rest 'Em:
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - He's run well against them in the past, but Titans run defense looks stouter than ever.

St. Louis at Washington
Ride 'Em:
Washington Defense - Marc Bulger is still not fantastic and he doesn't have any real threatening weapons except SJax, who will have to deal with Albert Haynesworth all day long.

Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - If you were on the fence about starting him after a struggle in Week 1, hang your doubts and watch him rack up points with punishing yards and probably TDs this week.

Rest 'Em:
Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Look, he's talented, but he's only ever had ONE really great season. And he looked a little slow to me against Seattle. If he catches the ball, maybe he'll be okay, but LaRon Landry is lurking and WAS secondary is vicious and fast.

Seattle at San Francisco
Ride 'Em:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - SF's corners are overrated, but I kind of expect a few turnovers with SF blitz packages.

Frank Gore, RB, SF - Last week I was down on him and he scored twice. This week, I don't expect great results, but give me a TD and 5 or 6 catches and yardage around 90-100.

Rest 'Em:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA - Still not sure he breaks out against a good linebacker corps. Still, 5-7 catches, but not huge yards. TD unlikely.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Ride 'Em:
Cadillac Williams, RB, TB - He looked great on more than a few runs on Sunday against Dallas and the O-line was blocking well. That should continue this week with LB Posluszney out.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Face it, he IS their offense right now.

Rest 'Em:
Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - Still not buying it, but CB Barber is aging and he may very likely draw T.O. assignment.

Pittsburgh at Chicago
Ride 'Em:
Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - I have believed in Santonio since he was a senior at Ohio State. He's rarely disappointed... Except when I drafted him last year and he never broke 100 yards and scored only from my bench. Argh. One year too early, I guess.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Shifty runners like Forte seem to mess with the Steelers, and he'll be used after a lightweight performance last week. Usually I recommend sitting a RB against Pittsburgh, but without Polamalu, it's just a different defense.

Rest 'Em:
Devin Hester, WR, CHI - CB Ike Taylor is nearly as fast as Hester and much taller, which could mean a long day for Hester... or a long TD.

Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Until further notice, all Pittsburgh rushers are off-limits.

Cleveland at Denver
Ride 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Had a TD taken off the board against Minnesota and QB Quinn seemed to be looking for him.

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Okay, I know I used this last week, but in Week 2 last year, he had 18 FREAKING CATCHES!!

Rest 'Em:
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Even AP was well contained for a half against Cleveland last week, and Moreno will only get half of the carries, if that much.

Baltimore at San Diego
Ride 'Em:
Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - Dwayne Bowe caught a short TD for KC last week, so maybe VJax can duplicate his effort.

Ravens Defense - I see Rivers throwing a Pick-6 in the direction of Ed Reed this week, who will drop back a lot without threat of Tomlinson for SD.

Rest 'Em:
Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Timing is everything, so it's unfortunate timing that LT got hurt and Sproles gets a tough matchup against Ravens. Against most teams he'd be a stud.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Ride 'Em:
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, RBs, NYG - Easy to see them doing well against a Dallas Defense that allowed a TD each to Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams.

NYG Defense - That D-line looks fiercer than ever before, and although Romo is elusive, count on a few sacks and a turnover or two.

Rest 'Em:
Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Well, it's not that I think he'll have a bad game, but I don't think he'll have time to get deep with NYG pass rush in Romo's face all day.

More Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em tomorrow when I'll break down the Monday Night game between the Colts and Dolphins.

Had a Bad Week 1? Don't panic!

So, you're sitting in last place after one week and you scored just about the fewest points in the league.

Believe it or not, I am in that position. But, luckily there is a virtually fool-proof way to make sure you don't stay in the basement:
DON'T BLOW YOUR TEAM UP AFTER ONE WEEK!

Here's some studs that had a poor showing in week one, but should rebound and lead your team to victory:

Michael Turner, RB, ATL - 65 yards rushing is fairly underwhelming for a top 3 pick, but he's in a good offense that likes to run and he should not be held down for long.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs knows he didn't run hard enough and will be motivated to get better this week. After seeing how Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams did against Dallas last week, Jacobs should see inflated numbers. After all, everything's bigger in Texas, especially stats and Jacbos is super-sized to begin with.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Don't worry about his meager 57 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh, he looked really good on a few runs and broke a few long ones against one of the toughest defenses in the league. And now he gets to play against Houston and we all saw what Thomas Jones did to them last week (104 rush yards, 2TDs). Rebound central.

Clinton Portis, RB, WSH - After a fairly weak performance against a stout NYG defense, he should rebound nicely against the Shams... I mean, Rams this weekend. They allowed Julius Jones (career underachiever) 117 yards on the ground. Enjoy a physical performance from Portis this week.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - The whole offensive line was dominated against the Jets, who happen to play a pretty mean style of defense, if you hadn't noticed. This could happen to anyone. Slaton's schedule isn't very friendly as he draws Tennessee this weekend, but don't give up on him too early. His playoff schedule is among the friendliest in the league for fantasy, and the road softens significantly when the bye weeks start.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - See Slaton, Steve. As soon as the offensive line gives Matt Schaub a little time to throw, Johnson will resume his stud status, and his playoff schedule is incredible.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Quarterback issues aside, Smith is still a stud and will still get his catches and yards. Philadelphia was a tough matchup and Jake Delhomme was a mess again. But, either he'll improve, or they'll find other ways of getting Smith the ball. No worries... yet.

Roddy White, WR, ATL - Atlanta was busy trying out their new toy in Tony Gonzalez and playing stellar defense and White's production suffered as a result. Gonzalez's presence shouldn't be a detriment to him in the long run, but you still can't expect a whole lot of touchdowns from him.

Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - An injury kept Boldin from being his normal, dominant self, but he'll be healed soon and Arizona's passing offense will wake up and realize they're still elite. Tim Hightower will probably never out-catch Boldin again.

Dallas Clark, TE, IND - With the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, Clark is clearly the second option in Manning's attack, behind only Reggie Wayne. Don't fret, his game will pick up soon, and he's traditionally not the fastest starter, but he winds up just fine.

Eddie Royal, WR, DEN - In PPR leagues, this guy was a real disappointment. He pulled in only 2 receptions, and was barely a factor. Use that information to try to get him cheaply this week. He's going to be fine, I think, but the Bengals corners are underrated and physically larger, leading to his problems this week. He should find more openings against Cleveland and will be helped out if the running game picks up.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - See Slaton, Steve and Johnson, Andre. The Jets play good defense and after Tennessee this weekend (assuming he can stay healthy) the schedule gets much softer and Schaub should be able to stand in the pocket and pick his targets easily. It's just a matter of his staying healthy through this weekend; no guarantee against the tough D-line of the Titans.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - The coaching staff should address Cutler's inability to throw the ball away on a busted play and he may throw only 3 interceptions against the Steelers this weekend, but after that he's got some fantasy-friendly defenses coming up, including a juicy Week 4 matchup with Detroit and it's paper mache defense and hopefully a shootout with Arizona in November.

Remember, it's just one week. While the temptation may be there to blow up the team and sell off those who didn't perform, the payoff is almost never worth it. The idea (as I've said before) is to Buy Low, Sell High.

From the Wild World of the Waiver Wire

All alliteration aside, there are some names out there that simply shouldn't be. Go pick up Mike Bell if he's available before you even finish reading this post.

...

Seriously, go.

Okay, good. Now, for more pickups.

Louis Murphy, WR, OAK - Murphy had a fairly useful game on Monday night. He would have had 2 TDs and over 100 yards if his touchdown late in the first half against San Diego hadn't been overturned by replay. I know tying your receiver's fate to JaMarcus Russell isn't the most pleasing prospect, but he's got to throw to someone, right? The Raiders look significantly less suck-ish than I thought they would, so Murphy might be worth something as a 4th or maybe even third receiver.

Chansi Stuckey, WR, NYJ - Again, people reluctant to get WRs that have unproven QBs, but Sanchez looked pretty good against the Texans on Sunday. Okay, fine, so that proves nothing, but he did lay a beautiful deep ball there for an easy TD to Stuckey, and that wasn't his only time targeting him, as Chansi reeled in four catches. No lame "take a 'chance' on Chansi" word play, although I admit, I do like to do that sometimes.

Michael Clayton, WR, TB - Maybe this is the year Clayton re-lives his rookie season brilliance. And all it took was some fastballs from Byron Leftwich. 5 catches, 94 yards, that's not terrible in fantasy and he's tall enough that he could get some red zone targets, too. Don't hesitate to add him, because he's got a Buffalo defense this week that was eaten alive by Randy Moss and Wes Welker last week. Clayton could build on his week one success and you could reap the benefits.

Carnell Williams, RB, TB - I liked the Tampa Bay offense this week (or maybe just a weak Dallas defense?) but Williams is owned in far to few leagues (17 percent of yahoo leagues). 97 yards and a TD on only 13 carries and he's available. Derrick Ward also had a serviceable game for fantasy owners with 83 yards of total offense and a TD of his own. If this timeshare (involving only 2 backs, we hope) works out like this each week, owners will have this year's version of Chris Johnson/LenDale White from last season. And I have to admit, I like that prospect.

Mike Bell, RB, NO - Anyone who gets 28 carries against Detroit should have a good game. Bell was exactly that. Good. Not great, but certainly earned himself some more carries with his 5.3 yards per carry. Yes, it was against Detroit. No, I don't expect him to repeat such numbers again consistently, but Pierre Thomas' knees are not good for standing, so Bell will continue to have value. If he DOES manage to get the starting job full-time (a Pierre Thomas injury or something) he'll have a decent playoff schedule (@Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay) and could be instrumental in helping the Saints run out the clock in those games. Only owned in 10 percent of yahoo leagues (including mine).

Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Didn't look awful against New England although he checked down to running backs and TEs waaaayyy more often than he probably should have. Still, he does have weapons, albeit weapons that he'll utilize slightly differently than they had been in the past (**coughTcoughO**). Anyway, Edwards did just fine avoiding turnovers and running the no-huddle (well, that's debatable) and he threw two TDs, so he's not a bad bye-week fill-in.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - He was probably taken in your league, but he's still available in 70 percent of all leagues on yahoo. He was great in his second season debut, throwing early and often and accurately, for the most part, even picking up a few rushing yards. Yea, it was against KC, but a strong performance none the less. Maybe JaMarcus Russell throws 3 TDs against KC, too.

Atlanta Falcons Defense - Manhandled Miami for most of the game Sunday and this week they get to host Carolina and turnover-specialist Jake Delhomme. I don't expect Jake to be quite as erratic, but he'll probably still throw a few picks here or there and Atlanta should concentrate primarily on stopping the run. Only owned in 19 percent of yahoo leagues and a fairly great matchup this week.

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week One

I'll pick a player or two from each team that you should ride to fantasy glory, or rest and send out someone else in their place.

Philadelphia at Carolina
Ride 'Em:

Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI - Carolina might have just enough offense to make this game into a shootout.

Mushin Muhammad, WR, CAR - No other receiver has stepped up to become a reliable #2 to Steve Smith, plus Muhammad's size makes him a decent bet to score against smaller Eagles corners.

Rest 'Em:

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Injury issues in the preseason make this a risky week to start him, unless you've got no other option.


Minnesota at Cleveland
Ride 'Em:

Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Motivated to make up for last year's shortcomings (read: drops) and Cleveland will need to throw often.

Minnesota Defense - Young QB and old RB starting for Cleveland, very few threats. Only thing that could derail them is an untimely Brett Favre interception.

Rest 'Em:

Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Brett likes to wait til week 2 to make an impact and although Cleveland's corners are weak, this feels like an AP All-Day kind of game.

Jamaal Lewis, RB, CLE - Old. Slow. Against the Williams brothers, and Vike's defensive front? No thank you.

Kansas City at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - No one noteworthy rushing the passer on the Chief's D, nor anyone decent in secondary. Mason will play well, too.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - He's probably the only consistent player on KC, and the only one that warrants a start this week, but QB instability means you should temper your expectations.

Rest 'Em:

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - Injured and even if he DOES play, the Ravens D will likely feast on him.

Denver at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Yuck, but Denver's defense is weak, Cincy is committed to running and no one is taking carries from him. Worth a RB2.

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Most in your league probably stayed away from Marshall, but coming off suspension last year he had 18 catches. Encore anyone?

Rest 'Em:

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Palmer uncertain and will draw coverage from Champ Bailey (overrated but still good) all day.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Ride 'Em:

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Especially if Bob Sanders is out. This goes for Marcedes Lewis, too. Short passes, no INTs for Garrard.

Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Just have a feeling he's not going to be nearly as bad as everyone thought he would be. Not bad as an RB2 against an older D-line.

Rest 'Em:

Torry Holt, WR, JAC - Don't love him as he's aged poorly and probably not going to go for big gains as Garrard dinks and dunks around Indy.

Detroit at New Orleans
Ride 'Em:

Anyone New Orleans Player not Named Pierre - Detroit had the worst defense in the league last year. Ride 'em all.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - With a rookie QB, it's tough to think they won't at least TRY to run.

Rest 'Em:

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Out with an injury.

New York Jets at Houston
Ride 'Em:

Most Texans players - Houston has a loaded offense, in theory, anyway. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton should have decent to good games each week.

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - Houston also has a fairly weak defense (except for LB Ryans), and Jones (early in the season, anyway) shouldn't have a difficult time.

Rest 'Em:

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ - You weren't REALLY going to start him anyway, right?

Miami at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:

Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - I like him more than most, and I don't expect Williams to take away carries.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL - The new toy in Atlanta should be looked for frequently as they test out the new weapon.

Rest 'Em:

Ted Ginn Jr, WR, MIA - Nothing significant to show in 2 years, wait til he shows something before you gamble with him.

Dallas at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:

Felix Jones, RB, DAL - Breakaway threat anytime, and Tampa's defense is old and without a good coordinator.

Rest 'Em:

Tampa Bay Defense - The end of last year was the end of their greatness. Look elsewhere.

San Francisco at Arizona
Ride 'Em:

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - Arizona scores lots at home, so he'll be behind, meaning lots of throwing opportunities perhaps picking them apart in garbage time.

Any Cardinals Passing game threat - They score a ton, but Fitzgerald might succumb to Madden curse!

Rest 'Em:

Frank Gore, RB, SF - Seems like a stud, right? Arizona stops run well, especially at home. PPR league might be okay, though.

St. Louis at Seattle
Ride 'Em:

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - Bounceback year starts against weak St. Louis secondary, with new WR Houshmandzadeh.

Rest 'Em:

Marc Bulger, QB, STL - No threats at receiver, no offensive line, no running game. Weak fantasy scorer, too.

Washington at New York Giants
Ride 'Em:

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Manning has few legit receivers and only threat on Washington's D is new DT Haynesworth.

Giants Defense - Pass rush should be dominant again, meaning sacks and turnovers will be abundant.

Rest 'Em:

Santana Moss, WR, WSH - As QB Campbell is pressured, he'll have less time to get open deep.

Chicago at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:

Green Bay Defense - Cutler has the potential for 4TDs or 4 turnovers.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Tony Scheffler had some great stats last year with Cutler at QB.

Rest 'Em:

Chicago Defense - With Hester more involved in offense, the special teams take a hit, devaluing the D/ST a ton.

Buffalo at New England
Ride 'Em:

Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - No one else in Buffalo worth starting.

Any Patriot involved in Passing game - Duh. Brady's back.

Rest 'Em:

Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Like I said, no one else in Buffalo worth starting.

San Diego at Oakland
Ride 'Em:

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Now officially a starter and will be used in passing game, too.

Any Chargers you have - Um, Oakland is nothing on defense (unless Seymour magically appears) and Rivers and Tomlinson will come up big.

Rest 'Em:

JaMarcus Russell - Hasn't shown promise yet, so wait til he shows something before you risk it.

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week 1 Titans at Steelers

Opening night of the NFL season is upon us.
FINALLY.
In less than 48 hours, our waiting will be over and football season can begin again.
HOORAY!

For each game this season, I'll pick two players from each team that you should start (Ride 'Em) or sit (Rest 'Em). I'm using standard scoring here, so nothing fancy.

Week 1 Titans at Steelers

RIDE 'EM

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Roethlisberger has a track record. He always tends to play well (very well, in fact) in the first game of each season. Last year, he was 13 of 14 for 169 and 2 TDs against the Texans, he shredded Cleveland for 4 TDs in the opening game the previous year, and was 9-for-11 for 218 and 2 TDs against Tennessee to open 2005. He missed Week 1 in 2006. The offense somehow consistently starts the season great, so expect good numbers from Ben.
Projection: 20-for-28, 250 yards, 2-3 TDs, 0 INTs.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT - Hines was fairly dominant against the Titans last year and now he has the home fans to further fuel his fire. In Tennessee last year, he hauled in 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD. Maybe expecting 100 yards is unlikely, but the TD is not.
Projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

REST 'EM

LenDale White, RB, TEN - Although they each had about half the carries, LenDale White is clearly second fiddle to Chris Johnson. White had 48 yards at a TD last time, and while that isn't terrible, you should be able to find better. The Steelers have a stout run defense, and White ran his mouth after the last game. James Harrison is angry about that, and you don't want to make Harrison angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Projection: 12 rushes, 35 yards, 0 TDs

Kerry Collins, QB, TEN - Collins tends to follow up a good year with a fairly lousy one. It's happened at just about every stop (New York to Oakland to Tennessee). This is the start of another bad year, which could be good news for Vince Young (but don't play him, either... in fact, don't EVER play him until you get written permission from me to do so).
Projection: 14-for-28, 190 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.

Look out for more Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em before this weekend's games.

Spin-juries

Injury news is important in the NFL, but it's value might be TRIPLED in fantasy.

Here's a few recent training camp injuries and some spin about what you might need to do if it affects your team.

INJURY: Matt Cassel, QB, KC - I haven't mentioned it, but I tend to have a curse that rivals that of a recently retired broadcaster. It only applies to QBs, though. Dante Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tom Brady, the list goes on and on... If I own them, something dreadful happens (injury, poor play, etc). Such is the case with Cassel, who went down on Thursday night with an ankle injury.

SPIN: The injury is expected to keep him out for 2-4 weeks, and he'll likely miss the Week 1 opener against Baltimore, if not more. You probably weren't going to expect much against the Ravens, but it's time to seek other options for week one (and potentially longer).

-----

INJURY: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs injured his arm in Saturday night's game against the Jets, further affirming his reputation as an injury-prone risk at RB.

SPIN: The X-Rays were negative, but when Jacobs returned to the game, he promptly fumbled. This is not a good sign, but nothing to panic over. Make sure you move to acquire Ahmad Bradshaw if you don't already have him on your bench as he would likely receive the bulk of the work if Jacobs proves ineffective or aggravates the injury.

-----

INJURY: Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Schaub (another QB I own, currently) hurt his ankle while running for a first down Monday night against Minnesota.

SPIN: Schaub has yet to shed the "injury prone" tag and this certainly won't help. He appeared willing to play through the pain and completed 2 passes after returning to the game with the ankle taped. Check back on Tuesday, though, to make sure this injury isn't worse. Losing Schaub would greatly decrease the value of his receivers, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels, although it may not have any affect on RB Steve Slaton's value.

-----

INJURY: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Speaking of Walter, he left the game Monday night with a hamstring injury.

SPIN: Hopefully this isn't going to be a lingering concern for Walter, who had somewhat of a breakout season last year. He won't play next week (as is the case for most starters in the last preseason game) so check his status before you activate him for Week 1. If he doesn't practice leading up to the game, chances are he won't play, or won't play well. If you have other options, they might be wise.

-----

INJURY: Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Stewart has missed the entire preseason with an Achilles injury.

SPIN: Stewart had an injury stigma attached to him out of college, but that was basically eliminated after last season. If he's not able to go, DeAngelo Williams' value rises considerably, but there are more than enough carries to support both backs. As long as you weren't relying on Stewart as a number 2 back in your league, you should have some time to wait as Stewart rests and heals.

-----

INJURY: Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Berrian did not play in Monday night's preseason game in Houston with an aggravated hamstring.

SPIN: This should come as no surprise to Berrian owners. He has been out of practice lately, but appears to be targeting week 1 as his return to action. Keep tabs on him, but don't expect too much of a drop off from the inconsistent results you'd normally get from Berrian.

More Spin-juries to come.

Draft Strategy: After the Studs

If I've learned anything from the countless hours I've spent searching the internet for mock drafts and participating in a few of my own, I can tell you that there is value to be had late in the draft.

Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.

Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.

One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?

Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.

Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.

In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.

But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.

When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).

FFFL6 Trade

There has been a trade in FFFL6 involving FabFour and Los Diablos Gatos (Me):

FabFour receives:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC
LenDale White, RB, TEN

Los Diablos Gatos receives:
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG

BREAKDOWN

FabFour Receives:

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - FabFour enjoyed Cassel's services in last year's FFFL, and clearly would like to have him again. He should have a good year throwing the football to Dwayne Bowe and new wideout Amani Toomer in KC's new spread offense (something like Arizona last year). FabFour's other QB is Jake Delhomme, who is looking for a bounce-back year in Carolina, but is more than capable of being a fantasy starter.

LenDale White, RB, TEN - The TD vulture himself. LenDale has trimmed down a bit, but should still be a solid option at runningback. He's very similar to Brandon Jacobs in terms of stats, he scores a lot, but his production can be kind of inconsistent, blowing up one game while being almost absent in the next. That having been said, he'd become invaluable should Chris Johnson get injured, as he'd probably play in most, if not all, situations.

Los Diablos Gatos Receives:

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - I coveted Schaub from the start, thinking that if he manages to stay healthy, he'll have a productive season throwing to my number one receiver, Andre Johnson, and my number three receiver, Kevin Walter. Needless to say, I'm putting a lot of stock into Houston's offense this season. Although, it scares me that I'm relying on the Andre Johnson rule to win this year.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs is not a number one running back in a PPR league. He just doesn't catch many passes. But, he's now lost one of his wingmen in Derrick Ward and may get even more opportunities now that Plaxico Burress is in jail and he'll be relied on more in the offense. It could be a breakout year for the punishing back and 1,300 yards and 18 TDs seems like a real possibility to me. Of course, without Burress, it's possible that teams focus more on the running game and limit Jacobs' production, too. Time will tell, but regardless, he's a better bet than LenDale, week to week.

ANALYSIS

FabFour gets better at QB while Los Diablos Gatos gets better at RB. The difference is only slight, but since FabFour wasn't around to pick his players at the online draft, this gives him some amount of control over his team. Both teams end up fixing their problems, but let me know who you think won this trade?

FFFL Draft Analysis, Part Deux

My Individual Draft Analysis:

1. (11) Andre Johnson - I love Andre Johnson, but he always seems to get hurt when I own him. He'll have another solid-spectacular year with over 100 catches, barring an injury.

2. (14) Chris Johnson - There's a part of me that regrets this pick, but he catches balls and should get better in his second year, and Michael Silver claims that he'll be the second best back in football this year. Here's hoping... plus, he was my 4th-ranked RB in the predraft and fell to me in the second round, I couldn't really pass him up.

3. (35) Tony Gonzalez - I was hoping for Anquan Boldin to drop to me, but alas, he was taken one pick before I could get him. There was a big dropoff at receiver after Boldin, so I went with Gonzo against my own advice, and I'll either trade him or hope he does great things for me. I've never really had a great pass-catching TE before, so hopefully he helps my team.

4. (38) Dwayne Bowe - With Bowe, I now have 3 big-target receivers who also score some TDs. Hopefully Bowe has a "breakout" season in his third year, and a 90-catch, 1200 yard season would make me VERY happy. That's a bit inflated from my rankings, but I believe in Bowe.

5. (59) Derrick Ward - I didn't figure out how long it would be before I picked again, and at this point, I'm very thin on RBs. Ward could be a very good steal (for whatever reason I like Tampa's running game every year) if he produces like he did in New York and manages to hold off Earnest Graham as a TD vulture.

6. (62) LenDale White - I got kicked off my computer (why does that always happen in crunch time?) midway through the sixth round and barely got back with 5 seconds left to pick. White ended up as an auto-pick, and I probably would have gone with Willie Parker, or Anthony Gonzalez, who both got picked later in the sixth round. But I guess I'm backing up my stud RB in case of an injury. Bit early to do that, though.

7. (83) Matt Cassel - I was hoping one of the "Matt's" would fall to me (Schaub got taken in the 6th round, Ryan in the 7th before me) so Cassel became the pick. I absolutely HATE his early season schedule, but he'll probably be throwing early and often in KC's spread offense, and I'll love it every time he connects with Bowe, which will hopefully be early and often this year. For waiting on a QB, I could have done much, much worse.

8. (86) Kevin Walter - Baltimore's defense was sitting there begging me to pick them, but I just don't believe in them as much as I thought I would, so I kept with the PPR spirit and took Walter as my third receiver. I don't like that he's on the same team with Andre Johnson, but he showed promise last year with almost 900 yards and 60 catches along with some of the TDs that Johnson missed out on. Hopefully they can share the targets and catches somewhat equally this season.

9. (107) Fred Jackson - After another insanely long wait, I decided on Jackson. It seemed a bit early to go after him, but the team at the turn had already claimed Marshawn Lynch, so his handcuff might have been gone if I'd waited. Jackson also is a decent PPR RB, which means that if one of my main two aren't working out, Jackson could be a nice early plug-in play.

10. (110) New York Jets Defense - Yuck? I don't think so. Darrell Revis is a player, so is Bart Scott, so are a bunch of others on the Jets. It's not the best defense in fantasy football, but it's got a bit more punch with Rex Ryan and Bart Scott. At least in the early going, I love the potential of the Jets D.

11. (131) Nate Washington - For whatever reason, I'm bullish on Nate the Great. He's got a hammy injury now, but I think he'll be okay down the line. Once it gets to round 11, you're drafting sleepers anyway, so why not try for a potentially explosive receiver who has some height and speed? I probably will wait to start him and see how he's looking before I commit to him long-term.

12. (134) Percy Harvin - I have Harvin in two leagues now, getting him at pick 134 each time. Peter King recently published a list of his top rookies that had impressed him so far. Harvin's name was at the top. That gives me even more hope that this do-it-all rookie will do great things for me and/or become great trade bait.

13. (155) Chris Henry - This guy is a high-upside, low-risk pick for me, which is exactly what you're supposed to be drafting late in the 13th round. I could easily see him cracking my starting lineup within 3-4 weeks. I could also see him bagging groceries at the local supermarket or behind bars within 3-4 weeks. If he lives up to his potential, he's a steal.

14. (158) Trent Edwards - If you're throwing to T.O., you can have some great results. Tony Romo was a stud for a while, as was Donovan McNabb. Funny thing about it was that each stop he's made, his QB has been a stud in the first year or two of T.O.'s presence, then fallen off later. The 14th round has been very kind to me in the past, and I expect Edwards to emerge as a top-notch backup, if not high-quality starter by week 6.

15. (179) Nate Kaeding - A kicker.

FFFL Draft Analysis

Here's an overview of my FFFL6 fantasy draft from Monday night. It's a PPR league where QBs get 7 points per TD pass, rather than the traditional 4 points.

First Round Analysis:

1. Peyton Manning 18 selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Maybe AP isn't the best RB choice in a PPR league, but he's the player that has the best chance to be the best (non-QB) player in the league.

2. Dominating Democrat selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Again, not a fantastic PPR player, but a really good player in general. I've told you my feelings about the "Curse of 370" before. If he's the exception to that rule, he could have a really good year. If not, Jerious Norwood becomes a superstar.

3. FabFour selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A potential PPR fiend. He's gonna get the yards and he's probably gonna get the TDs. FabFour was auto-picking in this draft, so he was lucky to get such a great player.

4. zippyzayde selects Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - This pick was a mistake. He said in the draft that he meant to pick Forte here. Still, zip rescued his draft in later rounds, and although he could have done better with Forte, he still did fairly well, especially if Olsen becomes a top-flight.

5. ToBe Champs selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Capitalizing on an opponent's error is a necessary strategy and that was the case here. Forte is probably in the top two RBs in fantasy for PPR leagues.

6. Quad Squad selects Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - Another PPR assassin, if he stays healthy, he's a beast. There are more questions about him this year than in the past, but while he's healthy he's everything to the Eagles offense.

7. The Terrible Tobe selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - After a supposed "down" year for LT, he gets picked 7th overall?! Terrible Tobe got a steal here with a quality performer that has consistently produced big points for owners.

8. Becca's Wreckas selects DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - A repeat isn't particularly likely, but with Jonathan Stewart nursing an injury, Williams could have the load all to himself and that bodes well for him.

9. J&J's Trust Fund selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - The first WR off the board doesn't come until pick number 9. A good selection because he's the best WR in the league in a passing offense and he catches a lot of balls. Madden curse be damned!

10. Mike's Last Min Team selects Steven Jackson, RB, STL - A very talented runner who can catch some, too. The injury bug has caught him the last few years, but he might be a steal if he can stay healthy.

11. Los Diablos Gatos selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - My first pick. He had 115 catches last year, and almost 100 yards per game. If he can stay healthy again, he's talented enough to be the best receiver in fantasy again.

12. vikes 2010 selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - I was hoping Moss would stick around long enough for me to pick him with the 14th pick, but alas, he was picked here. Without Brady last year, he had over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. What will he do with Brady back in the fold?

Here were some of the best picks in this draft:

Peyton Manning 18: Round 5, 49 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - This is a really good RB2 in a PPR league, assuming he can stay healthy. Oakland's rushing attack is formidable and McFadden seems poised to break out this year.

Dominating Democrat: Round 8, 95 Overall: Derrick Mason, WR, BAL - As a third receiver, Mason is a good PPR player. Questions about his injuries or his commitment make him questionable, but he might be fairly useful.

Fab Four: Round 3, 27 Overall: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - In the third round, he got a true WR1. It doesn't matter who is playing QB, the Lions will be behind in games and thus, Johnson will get his catches.

ToBe Champs: Round 1, 5 Overall: Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Sometimes, you have to take what's given to you. Forte was dropped into his lap and he pounced. He could produce some of the best numbers this year of any RB.

Quad Squad: Round 4, 43 Overall: Reggie Bush, RB, NO - With Bush, Quad Squad has two of the best pass-catching RBs in fantasy. Bush has an injury issue, like Westbrook, but he's dynamic if he stays healthy.

The Terrible Tobe: Round 11, 127 Overall: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - The aforementioned Westbrook's propensity for getting injured at the wrong time makes McCoy a valuable handcuff or a potentially powerful trade chip.

Becca's Wreckas: Round 10, 113 Overall: Felix Jones, RB, DAL - If he can stay healthy, he's an explosive player who could be productive in the even of an injury to Marion Barber.

J&J's Trust Fund: Round 14, 160 Overall: Steve Smith, WR, NYG - He's a PPR threat, but he's also Eli's most reliable receiver now that Burress is doing the jailhouse rock. 75 catches and 800 yards wouldn't be totally out of the question for this third year receiver.

Mike's Last Min Team: Round 3, 34 Overall: Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - I was targeting Boldin for my third rounder, but Mike's Team got him just before I could. Any time someone does that to me, it gets them a mention.

Los Diablos Gatos: Round 13, 155 Overall: Chris Henry, WR, CIN - He's done really well in the preseason and if he can keep his nose clean and get some catches this year, he's an excellent WR3. If not, hopefully Kevin Walter (2 first names, one of them is GREAT) will have a good year, too.

vikes 2010: Round 8, 85 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Pretty slick move to get a true WR1 this late in the draft. Granted, Cotchery's QB situation is shaky, but he's still a good pick and a proven PPR performer, plus vikes picked him up right before I was going to pick him, which, like I said, gets you a mention.

*Interestingly enough, I drafted Percy Harvin in the 13th round, with the 134th pick overall, the same exact pick I got him with in the Fantasy Factor Draft. Weird stuff happens in fantasy football sometimes.

Fantasy Sleepers

At its core, Fantasy sports are very similar to investing in the stock market. You want to buy low, and sell high. Get the maximum value out of every deal.

One part of the "buy low" concept is to draft "sleepers," or players that have yet to show impact, but have a lot of potential. Since they have yet to prove that they're going to be studs, you can acquire these players with lower draft picks, while you choose more proven studs in the first 5 rounds or so.

Here are some sleepers that you should look out for as backups, or if you miss out on some of the higher-end players at each position:

Quarterbacks:

No position is harder to learn in the NFL than QB. As a general rule, I try to look for (at least) one established veteran, and avoid rookies altogether. It's very rare that a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning comes around and throws for over 3,000 yards as a rookie. So, Matthew Stafford can sit out on your league's waiver wire or free agent pool and and hold a clipboard until an injury on your team makes him a necessary add (Honestly, I don't wish that on you, but if it comes to it, he's not the worst option in the world).

Trent Edwards, BUF - Edwards played reasonably well last year, but didn't throw a ton of TDs. Enter Terrell Owens. Buffalo has a legitimate passing attack with Lee Evans and T.O. lining up on the outsides. Edwards has the targets and the running game to back him up, all he needs to do is put it in the end zone.
Projection: 3,200 yards, 21 TDs, 17 Turnovers.

Joe Flacco, BAL - There's no question, Flacco played well beyond his years last year. If not for Matt Ryan's incredible turnaround of the Falcons, I have very little doubt that Flacco would have won Rookie of the Year. But, what I really love about Flacco (for fantasy purposes only) is that his team went out and got him even more help on an offensive line that was already very good. I think Flacco will continue to ascend the ranks of the NFL QBs in real life, but for fantasy he's still just a quality backup with mediocre weapons.
Projection: 2,900 yards, 18 TDs, 12 Turnovers.

Running Backs:

I love picking up rookie sleepers at running back more than anything else in fantasy football (except maybe pulling off a really helpful trade). This year, Running Backs are especially plentiful. Finding the right one might be a bit of a chore, though, so here are my guesses for rookies (and a few non-rookies) that will help your team this year.

LeSean McCoy, PHI - I've mentioned this before, but McCoy has all the skills of Brian Westbrook in a younger package. Handcuffing an injury-prone star, like Westbrook, with a young player that could be a stud is a good strategy. Pick him up a round before you normally would, though, because the secret may be out already on this potential game-breaker.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.

Knowshon Moreno, DEN - He needs a lot of things to go right in order to reach his potential, but his ceiling is higher than any other back in this year's class. He can do it all and if his injury clears up and Kyle Orton avoids throwing the ball to the other team, Moreno could be a dominant rusher this year.
Projection: 900 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 7 total TDs.

Ray Rice, BAL - Baltimore clearly has more than one sleeper. Probably one in each category, actually. I like Rice to have a good year because of the aforementioned offensive line that is further improved from last year's. Assuming Flacco doesn't turn into Rex Grossman (or Peyton Manning) overnight, the Ravens will be a ball-control offense that caters to lots of carries for Rice. He may lose out on some TDs, though, to Big Boy Le'Ron McClain.
Projection: 1,000 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, 8 total TDs.

Felix Jones, DAL - I was really on the Felix bandwagon last year before he got hurt. He can score from anywhere (and I love having RBs that return kicks, too) and he's got enough of a burst that even Marion Barber won't poach a ton of scores from him. Furthermore, without T.O., the Cowboys will likely opt for more of a running-based offense, meaning more carries for both Barber and Jones.
Projection: 750 rush yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs.

Wide Receivers:

Unlike running backs, rookie WRs rarely make a huge impact. And don't, under any circumstances, think that Michael Crabtree is doing himself any favors by skipping all of training camp. He's not off to a good start and in spite of his body type and build, I don't buy him as a legit NFL receiver. Just my opinion. Let some other idiot take him while you concentrate on players who will actually make an impact on your team this year.

Nate Washington, TEN - Yes, he's starting now, and yes, Jeff Fisher says that he plans on incorporating him heavily into the offense, but temper your expectations. Until he shows otherwise, he's a bench player with #3 or fringe #2 potential. Draft late, though and get a steal.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 5 TDs.

Mark Clayton, BAL - I told you Baltimore could have someone in every category, right? Derrick Mason already retired once this year and Clayton could be a number one receiver pretty soon. He has gone undrafted in 5 out of 6 mock drafts that I've done, but I have a feeling this could be a breakout year for him. Then again, it's just a feeling, so don't gamble your draft on it. Take him with your second-to-last pick (before your kicker, though) and it's a low-risk move that could pay off with a fairly solid #3 receiver.
Projection: 55 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.

Percy Harvin, MIN - Usually avoiding rookie receivers is the way to go, but when a team adds whole pages and plays to their playbook for you, there's probably a reason. He (like Devin Hester in Chicago) has the potential to break a play for a huge gain any time he touches the ball. You'll have to gamble a little to get him before other owners, but you could capitalize on the first big game he puts up and trade him for a more reliable threat.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 6 TDs.

Tight Ends:

Tight End is a fairly deep position this year. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't try for one of the top 3 or 4, but you shouldn't worry if they do pass you up.

Brent Celek, PHI - Just because everyone has been calling for him to get playing time. I could see him having decent value, especially if McNabb were to get hurt. Remember: Michael Vick's favorite target with Atlanta was Alge Crumpler.
Projection: 40 catches, 500 yards, 4 TDs.

Todd Heap, BAL - See? A player in every category! He's gone mostly unnoticed but if he manages to stay healthy he's a fairly good TE. You can get him late and if he puts up good numbers, consider it a well-deserved bonus.
Projection: 40 catches, 600 yards, 5 TDs.

Defense:

Washington Redskins - I don't think you should take them as a number one, but heck, if LaRon Landry takes another step and Albert Haynesworth stays healthy and lives up to his contract, you're looking at a fairly consistent and stingy defense that may be worth owning/trading.
No projection for defense.

Feel free to post some of your sleepers, too.
Don't forget to include projections!

Fantasy Factor League Draft Analysis, Part Deux

My Individual Draft Analysis:

1. (7) Maurice Jones-Drew - Awesome that I could get him that late in the first round.
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams - For the record, I don't think he'll repeat, but getting the leader in TDs last season in the second round is a good deal.
3. (27) Greg Jennings - A big question mark but he's in his prime with a good QB and he's coming off a great season.
4. (34) Philip Rivers - I needed a QB and he threw lots of TDs last year, but lots of QBs were already gone so I had to make a move.
5. (47) Reggie Bush - I love Bush, but this was a move that would have been much better in my PPR league, rather than in this league. But, I think Bush has a bounce-back year and scores at least 10 TDs this year.
6. (54) Vincent Jackson - With Rivers on my team and without the prospect of another great WR, Jackson was an obvious choice.
7. (67) Anthony Gonzalez - Marvin Harrison is gone and Gonzalez had a decent year last year. He could be great as a 7th rounder.
8. (74) Chris Cooley - I couldn't wait on a TE any longer. He only scored once last season, but as I've mentioned countless times before, TDs are among the most inconsistent things in fantasy, so I expect his scores to increase.
9. (87) LeSean McCoy - Just an inevitable Brian Westbrook injury away from being a super stud.
10. (94) Lance Moore - As a reserve WR, he's a great value as he almost got 1,000 yards last year. If he continues to start and produce, he's a shrewd pickup this late.
11. (107) Donald Brown - I'm collecting rookie RBs because every year at least one has a great season. My bet is that Brown grabs the reigns early and plays well in Manning's offense.
12. (114) Mushin Muhammad - I still wasn't quite satisfied with my receivers and I could see Muhammad having one more 1,000 yard season before he calls it a career. Plus, as a red zone threat, he's a useful fantasy player.
13. (127) Dallas D/ST - I'm not wild about them, but any time you have a DeMarcus Ware rushing opposition QBs, it's good. Plus, they were arguably the best defense remaining.
14. (134) Percy Harvin - The fourteenth round has been kind to me in the past (Willie Parker in '05, Adrian Peterson in '07 and Kurt Warner in '08). Hopefully Harvin will continue that trend as a homerun hitter late in the draft.
15. (147) Nate Washington - Another upside pick. He's a burner and he's starting, plus the Titans appear to want to use him as much as possible.
16. (154) Michael Vick - Just a Donovan McNabb injury away from being a fantasy stud (essentially as a third or fourth RB from the QB spot). Who cares if he's not starting, the last round is SUPPOSED to be about swinging for the fences.
17. (167) Kris Brown - A kicker.

Fantasy Factor League Draft Analysis

Nick over at the Fantasy Factor is hosting a fantasy football league for his readers. I signed up.
Here's a review of the draft, which was held tonight, and a few of the notable picks.

First Round Analysis:
1. North Side selects Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - The obvious first overall pick. He's safe and has a great offensive line. Obvious, but good pick.
2. Magnificent Bastards selects Tom Brady, QB, NE - A big-time reach, but then again, he probably couldn't get him if he waited. If he throws another 50 TDs, this pick looks genius.
3. Marathon Maria selects Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - 3 picks down, only one RB gone? Fitz has been safer than a bank vault over the past few years. I guess Maria isn't fearful of the Madden Curse.
4. Warbirds selects Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Forte is a really good pick. He's a dual threat and stands a good chance to get better as Jay Cutler gets comfortable in the offense.
5. Tim selects Michael Turner, RB, ATL - As long as the "curse of 370" doesn't affect him, he's gonna be golden again for the Falcons. And for the creatively-named team "Tim."
6. The Flying Hellfish selects Randy Moss, WR, NE - If Tom Brady has a good year again, Randy Moss has something to do with it. He's still a reach at number 6 overall, though.
7. KevinZuk selects Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - A pure value pick. He's maybe the second or third best RB overall, and I got him at number 7 overall. No question here.
8. Manor Beasts selects LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, SD - LT is still LT, no matter the "down year" he had last season. He's still a stud and getting him this late is a good value pick.
9. Torn Meniscus selects Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - This is somewhere near the slot for AJ, and I suppose the selection of RBs would be similar in the second round and he gets the best receiver left.
10. Xtreme Machine selects Frank Gore, RB, SF - Not a bad first-rounder, but there seem to be better backs still on the board. He's not bad, but playing on a bad team means he'll be behind a lot and thus, have fewer opportunities to carry the mail.

That's just the first round. But slick moves by all the owners were prevalent in this draft. Here's each team's best picks, in my opinion.

North Side: Round 12, 120 Overall: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - No one expects much of him because of the lack of experience at QB, but he's a genuine number 1 receiver in real life and should produce at least number 3 numbers, which is the best thing you can hope for in Round 12.

Magnificent Bastards: Round 2, 19 Overall: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - After skipping a RB in Round 1, the Bastards still got a starting back with high upside who scores lots of TDs.

Marathon Maria: Round 5, 43 Overall: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Everyone in the draft had some kind of comment here. He's due for a breakout and he could be the steal of the draft.

Warbirds: Round 15, 144 Overall: Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - This guy could be a huge steal, too. Jackson is definitely going to start the first three games with Marshawn Lynch suspended. We'll see if Jackson can hang onto the starting role past Week 3.

Tim: Round 7, 65 Overall: Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Edwards is Tim's 3rd receiver and he's got potential to put up number 1 receiver numbers. He's a great value with Tim's team already stocked with reliable talent.

The Flying Hellfish: Round 16, 155 Overall: Eli Manning, QB, NYG - This is incredible value, although the Hellfish already had Tony Romo and Matt Cassell in tow. Eli could be very helpful when trying to swing a trade later in the year. Great pick.

Manor Beasts: Round 9, 88 Overall: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - As a third receiver, Walter is a good pick. He's a good redzone threat, and a solid player.

Torn Meniscus: Round 17, 169 Overall: Shonn Greene, RB, NJY - A mega-sleeper that could be an excellent pick if Thomas Jones gets injured. I love it when a team gets a great pick in the last round or two.

Xtreme Machine: Round 11, 110 Overall: Ray Rice, RB, BAL - He's probably gonna be the starter and the Machine got him in round 11. Something like that doesn't happen often and Xtreme Machine took advantage.

Kevin Zuk: Round 14, 134 Overall: Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - He's a playmaker and this was a low-risk, high-reward option. It also got lots of attention from my fellow drafters. If he contributes immediately, it's a steal as my WR options are mediocre, at best.

Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends

Tight Ends are probably the most difficult position to predict and probably the most inconsistent. If you don't land one of the top few, though, don't fear. Tight end is also one of the deepest positions in fantasy and you can usually try to play the matchups from week to week.

Bottom line: I consider getting TE points as a bonus. If you can get a great one without sacrificing too much at the WR or RB positions, go for it. I try to aim for a top-tier pass-catching TE in the late 3rd-5th rounds, but if I miss out, I try for something else much later in the draft.

In PPR leagues, a pass-catching TE is almost essential.

Now, the top 10.

1. Tony Gonzalez, ATL - He's earned it over the years with plenty of years of consistent service. Matt Ryan will be able to find him all over the field and in the red zone. He's got a solid running game backing him up and soft hands. He's a solid route-runner, too. He's going to be taken extremely early in drafts, maybe as early as the third round.
Projection: 90 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.

2. Jason Witten, DAL - Without T.O. in Dallas, Witten is clearly Tony Romo's top target. He's probably the second-best TE in PPR leagues. Don't reach for him, but if he's still available in the fourth round and have 2 solid RBs, you'll be more than happy with Witten.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 9 TDs.

3. Antonio Gates, SD - This guy is the ultimate in draft-and-trade players. He's got a big name, he plays in a great offense and he's got a good QB. But, he's not going to live up to the expectations you probably have for him. Draft him, if you want, but in my opinion he's a guy you can sell high to an owner with quality depth at another position, maybe for a high-caliber QB or middle-tier WR.
Projection: 75 catches, 800 yards, 8 TDs.

4. Dallas Clark, IND - I may have mentioned this once or twice on this blog, but Marvin Harrison is no longer a Colt. I can't really emphasize how much offense this actually opens up for the rest of the team and Clark stands to benefit a lot from his departure. I could see him outperforming Gates by a lot, so he's a guy you should target, too, as Manning will be doing the same every Sunday.
Projection: 75 catches, 950 yards 8 TDs.

5. Chris Cooley, WAS - This gets said a ton on this blog, too, but TDs are inconsistent. Cooley is capable of huge games and he got his opportunities last year, but not as much in the red zone. I think if Malcolm Kelly can open up the outside, Cooley returns to 8-1o TD territory. And he'll still get the yards as a reliable target for Jason Campbell.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 yards, 7 TDs.

6. Owen Daniels, HOU - He usually tends to start off kind of slow, meaning an owner might get frustrated and drop him or trade him cheap. If you draft him, hold him. His numbers will pick up. If you can pick him up, do it. A sort of Dallas Clark-lite, he's good for catches and yards and is probably the second option for targets on his team. He should have a solid, if not spectacular season.
Projection: 60 catches, 750 yards, 6 TDs.

7. Greg Olsen, CHI - Olsen has never had a QB like Cutler. Remember Tony Scheffler had some useful fantasy games in Denver last year, too. Olsen is probably the most reliable receiver on the Bears, so I expect Olsen to put up something close to 80 yards per game.
Projection: 65 catches, 750 yards, 5 TDs.

8. Heath Miller, PIT - Players generally don't sign huge contracts such as the one Miller signed this offseason and not get utilized in the passing game. I'll count on this being Miller's breakout receiving season, and as a featured part of the Steelers offense, he'll be among the most reliable TEs this season. Temper your expectations, but TDs could boost his value.
Projection: 60 catches, 650 yards, 6 TDs.

9. Zach Miller, OAK - A sleeper candidate to be a breakout player of the year. Of course, I don't love tying my fantasy TE's value to JaMarcus Russell, but he did okay last year, so maybe there will be improvement, or at the very least, consistency.
Projection: 55 catches, 700 yards, 3 TDs.

10. John Carlson, SEA - He had a decent season without Matt Hasselbeck last year. Now lets see what he can do with a real QB running the offense.
Projection: 50 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs.

Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receivers

Receivers are the trickiest position to draft because the passing game's production can be so random at times. Things to look for when looking for good Wide Receivers are the quality of their QB, the overall skill set and the strength of their team's defense.

...

What?

No, really. If a WR plays on a team that has a lousy defense, he can put up some excellent games. The same rule can apply to QBs, although you run the risk of turnovers more with QBs. For example: Calvin Johnson put up some fantastic numbers last year, but his team was the worst in history. This is because he got production in "garbage time" and has excellent skills, plus his team was throwing to try to get back in the game quickly. "Megatron" will likely put up similar numbers with a good QB this year, so target him before the fourth round of your draft.

Now, the rankings!

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - After the incredible post-season he had last year (basically carrying the Cardinals on his back to the Super Bowl (and nearly winning that game on his own), Fitz has momentum and will continue to be among the safest and best values at WR. He is a consistency KING and has at least one score or 100 yards just about every week. He should be taken in the first round, especially in PPR leagues. The only thing you have to worry about is the "Madden Curse," which will hopefully be broken now that he's retired from broadcasting!
Projection: 100 catches, 1,500 yards, 12 TDs.

2. Randy Moss, NE - Without the services of elite QB Tom Brady last year, Moss still managed to get over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Brady is back. You do the math. Moss should have at least one or two more monster years before he begins a serious decline. He was among the most valuable players when Brady was healthy, so I see no reason why he wouldn't be right near the top now.
Projection: 93 catches, 1,300 yards, 15 TDs.

3. Andre Johnson, HOU - I've already based several rules on this guy's production. When he's healthy, he's practically unstoppable. He showed that last year with 115 catches, 1,575 yards and 8 TDs. He makes other players better, too. He would likely be the number one receiver in PPR leagues, but his injury issues still remain a question. Still, he'll be gone before the end of the second round in almost all leagues.
Projection: 98 catches, 1,400 yards, 10 TDs.

4. Roddy White, ATL - A few years back when Roddy White was drafted, Atlanta knew something that maybe no one else did. "Rowdy" Roddy White is a PLAYER. Matt Ryan loves him, and he had more 100-yard games than any other player last year. If you get bonus points for 100+ yard games, target White. He didn't score very many TDs, but as I've mentioned before, TDs fluctuate a lot in fantasy. Luckily for you, people still don't really know about him, for whatever reason, so he'll likely slip past the second round after guys like Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin are gone. You could wind up with a steal if you can get him in the third round.
Projection: 91 catches, 1,350 yards, 9 TDs.

5. Steve Smith, CAR - Maybe no player in the NFL can draw attention like Steve Smith. And maybe no other player can continue to get the ball in spite of all the attention. Smith is a lock to score big points when he's healthy and he doesn't rely just on long plays. He catches swing passes, screens, bombs, and even occasionally runs the ball. He's a focal point of the Panther's offense and he gets the ball. Period.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 9 TDs.

6. Calvin Johnson, DET - Just about everything you want in a WR you can find in CJ. He's got great measurables, he's the focal point of his team's offense, and he's got a lousy defense backing him up, meaning more throws and more opportunity for Johnson. I love Johnson, but I don't trust him as much as I do the other 5 receivers listed ahead of him. It might be best to let him go for a while and only target him if he becomes available late in the second round and you can get another complimentary player not long after him.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards, 10 TDs.

7. Reggie Wayne, IND - He's the number one receiver with an uber-talented QB in Peyton Manning. He's money no matter the format but he may be more heavily covered than in years past with the departure of Marvin Harrison and a lack-luster running game. Plus, with a new coach in Indy, the offensive strategy may change. Obviously, he's an elite talent, so he's gonna be drafted high, but don't reach for him too early in the second round. If he's still available when you pick in the third round and you have a great RB and another WR already, he's an exceptional number two.
Projection: 85 catches, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs.

8. Anquan Boldin, ARI - The Cardinals have among the best offenses in the NFL with Kurt Warner at the helm. Boldin would have been almost as good as Larry Fitzgerald last year if he hadn't missed a few games with a broken jaw. Even without a few starts, he still topped 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. He lost a few fumbles last year but he should have a monster year again.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,200 yards 9 TDs.

9. Terrell Owens, BUF - T.O. = T.D. We've all heard it before. T.O. has skills and usually in his first year with a new team he's usually quiet and productive. I'm not really sure what to make of his potential draft situation this year. He's a big name, which means he'll be gone early, but he's also working with an unproven QB, which tends to diminish even a star receiver's value. Draft him late in the second round... or don't. It doesn't matter. If you are lost for a number one receiver and the talent pool is beginning to dwindle, he's still going to get number one receiver statistics.
Projection: 80 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs.

10. Dwayne Bowe, KC - Bowe is super. I love him. You'll love him. He's a great combo of skill and opportunity that everyone is seeking. But he's never played with a legit QB. Enter Matt Cassel. He was in a bit of trouble early this offseason with the coaching staff, but don't worry, he'll be in the starting lineup from week 1 and he'll be more productive than ever with Cassel at the helm.
Projection: 75 catches, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs.

Depending on your league's format there are some receivers that should be on this list. Greg Jennings is great for long-scoring bonus point leagues, as is DeSean Jackson. Wes Welker, Hines Ward and T. J. Houshmandzadeh are excellent options for PPR leagues.

Breakout candidates at receiver tend to include third year players, but here's my list of some with potential:
1. Santonio Holmes, PIT - He did it already in the Super Bowl. A thousand yard season is likely.
2. Anthony Gonzalez, IND - Marvin Harrison is gone, Peyton Manning is still great. He's got an opportunity to excel this season.
3. Nate Washington, TEN - He's a starter now, and he's a burner. He could impress.
4. Ted Ginn, MIA - It's his third year and this former first-rounder needs to put up or shut up. He could be big this year.
5. Mark Clayton, BAL - Joe Flacco's potentially best receiver. And the defense isn't going to be quite as good this year, meaning more opportunities for him to develop with Flacco.