Thursday, October 1, 2009

It's Week 4, They are (not) who you thought they were.

Sorry I haven't been active the last few days (Jewish High Holidays, family issues) but I'm back.
So, it's week 4. You've got three weeks of data to use when trying to set your fantasy lineups this week. By now, you know who can throw, catch and run, and who can play defense. Of course, with extra information, you get bye weeks. Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia and Atlanta are all off this week. These are fantasy juggernaut teams, littered with first and second-round picks. Which means you need to turn to some waiver wire pickups, some fantasy underachievers and some otherwise undesirable players to help your fantasy team to victory.

Strong Plays

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Ahmad Bradshaw is hurting and KC offers little resistance. He's under-achieved so far, but he should have a second consecutive strong outing this week.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Could be great against a poor Detroit pass defense. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are strong plays, as well. Even the much-maligned Matt Forte should have a decent game, in spite of Detroit having a stronger-than-expected run defense.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - Oakland is much better against the pass than the run, so I could see him having his first 100-yard game this week, and maybe a TD or two.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Cincinnati has been running effectively, and he even did well against Pittsburgh last week. A TD is almost guaranteed and a hundred yards seems very likely.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Tennessee is absolutely terrible against the pass, so I think good things are in store for him, Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis this week.

Glen Coffee, RB, SF - He's getting a full workload this week with Gore sidelined with an injury and the Rams have proven they can be run on.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - They're having a hard time moving the ball through the air, so Moreno and backfield mate Correll Buckhalter should get lots of touches this week.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - The Houston (poor excuse for a) defense has surrendered two of the biggest fantasy games of the year to running backs this season. At the very least, he should have 100 yards of total offense.

Don't Buy the Hype on:

Vernon Davis, TE, SF - I think it was Minnesota's coverage schemes that allowed Davis to get open and score twice last week. Lots of owners rushed to pick him up, but don't feel bad if you missed out on him. I have my doubts that he'll repeat this week.

Jason Campbell, QB, WAS and Santana Moss, WR, WAS - Detroit was the most beatable pass defense in the league last year and they haven't done anything to show it's improved this year. Yeah, Moss went off last week, and Campbell played well enough to win a few people their leagues, but unless you are absolutely desperate (Own Matt Hasselbeck AND Donovan McNabb, for example, and missed out on Kevin Kolb) you don't start this guy. Sorry, I don't like the Redskins offense even a little.

Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Don't love him this week even a little. All the signs are there for him to have a 2-3 INT game. #1. It's a revenge game for him, meaning he might try to squeeze some throws in that he otherwise wouldn't attempt. #2. He has thrown only one pick this year, but this defense robbed similar QB Jay Cutler 4 times in week 1. #3. Adrian Peterson could have a good day running the ball as GB gives up a lot on the ground. Bottom line: Just because he was the hero last week, doesn't mean he's into your starting lineups this week.

I'll have more fantasy advice and info later this week, and my Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em will come out early this week, as I'll be out of town Saturday and Sunday.

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