Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Problem with Trading

I have something you need to make your team better.
You have something I need to make MY team better.
Interestingly, we're completely unable to make a deal that's acceptable to both sides.

Why?

Scott Burton of Football Outsiders and ESPN.com Insider wrote a very interesting theory about the difficulties involved with trading. Burton uses an interesting metaphor to describe it:

14,000 people stood in line for tickets to an exclusive event. Half of them would get tickets based on a random lottery. Before the lottery to decide who would get tickets, presumably everyone would agree to pay the same amount for the tickets. Everyone's time is just as valuable and everyone wants the tickets just as much as the others.
But after? Surprisingly, the people who LOST the lottery were only willing to pay about $200 for the tickets, while people who WON were ASKING about 10 times that amount. What's the difference, though? The difference is that people are much less willing to part with what they OWN. This connection is an irrational, emotional connection, according to Burton.

We don't play Fantasy Football with emotion, though. We play with numbers. And here's the main problem: Some owners, especially the ones who drafted stars that aren't performing, are very reluctant to ditch the stars they have an emotional connection to. This makes people unwilling to trade an under-performing Roddy White and his 119 yards and 1 in exchange for Mario Manningham and his 300 yards and 2 TDs.
The evidence is there that Manningham is a more reliable receiver than White. White has struggled since the addition of Tony Gonzalez. Worse, the Atlanta offense didn't struggle until they played the Patriots while White was offering little contribution. Yes, they probably used their bye week to figure out how to get him more involved.

Roddy White was ranked as a top 4 WR (in my book, anyway) in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 80th. Manningham wasn't even actually ranked in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 7th. So, really, isn't it foolish NOT to trade for him if you're a White owner? If you have legit playoff aspirations, you simply can't hold on to, or keep starting, players that simply aren't producing. Fantasy football is played with numbers, not emotions or projections.

1 comment:

  1. Wow great advice. Trade away one of the best receivers in the game for a guy who will probably be losing his starting gig to Nicks. What kind of advice is this? By the way, not sure if you noticed by Roddy White went off last weekend for 200 yards and 2 tds. Selling low (Roddy White) and buying high (Manningham) is exactly how NOT to win in fantasy. This advice borders on absurd.

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