Carolina at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:
Atlanta Defense - Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and lost an interception last week against Philly. You decide what to do.
Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Atlanta's fast track won't hurt him, and we all know no one can overthrow him...
Rest 'Em:
Carolina Defense - Matt Ryan is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks, Roddy White and Michael Turner had semi-lousy games last week. My bet is that one of them (or all of them) go off this week.
Minnesota at Detroit
Ride 'Em:
Kevin Smith, RB, DET - He's got hands and they like to get him into the passing game, which is good because he's not gonna do much on the ground against the Vikings.
Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Big-time comeback this week after no catches last week.
Rest 'Em:
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Wow, total shocker, right? Yeah, that's because if you DO somehow sit this guy, I'll personally come and delete your team. You. Will. Fail. If. You. Sit. Him.
Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN - Maybe a cheap TD, but he won't be needed much, so maybe find someone better.
Cincinnati at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:
Cedrick Benson, RB, CIN - Cincy is still pretty committed to the run and will try to win time of possession game by pounding with Cedric 25+ times.
Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Comeback player of the year? Maybe a mention after a big game for the second week in a row.
Rest 'Em:
Donald Driver, WR, GB - Bengal corners are large, fast and underrated (as I've said before). Don't expect much from Driver, but Jennings may get deep a few times against weak safeties.
Arizona at Jacksonville
Ride 'Em:
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Arizona doesn't defend the run well on the road, Jacksonville will need to kill clock to keep it close against good offense.
Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - After a poor game last week, injury should be better and impact should be big on offense.
Rest 'Em:
Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Don't buy into the 12-catch game last week. He may end up being a good receiver, but don't risk it with anything above a third RB or flex position until you see consistency.
Oakland at Kansas City
Ride 'Em:
Larry Johnson, RB, KC - No definitive word on Cassel yet, so Larry may carry the load.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, OAK - Anyone see what Joe Flacco did last week when there was no pass rush against him? I'll buy Russell this week, I think.
Rest 'Em:
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Still think he'll get a few catches, but Oakland's pass defense is tougher now with Seymour and Asomugha.
New England at New York Jets
Ride 'Em:
Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Welker is out so he should be Brady's go-to receiver on Sunday as Moss will be tied up with CB Revis, and QB eligible/
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE - Against blitz he could get some dumpoffs and turn them into yards and scores.
Rest 'Em:
NYJ Defense - Not against Brady, and could be in trouble if QB Sanchez throws a pick in a bad spot.
Randy Moss and Wes Welker, WRs, NE - Jets CB Revis shut down Andre Johnson last week and he'll stay on Moss as Welker sits with an injury.
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Ride 'Em:
Any offensive player in this game has a good shot to score for New Orleans.
Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Saints defense is nothing spectacular, and Philly may have to throw to keep up. With Kolb at QB, Celek and Westbrook may become his best receivers.
Rest 'Em:
Either team defense.
Houston at Tennessee
Ride 'Em:
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - He didn't run as poorly as it looked against Steelers, breaking a few big ones. And Houston's D is nothing compared to Pittsburgh.
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - He's reportedly looked decent at practice, and Roethlisberger looked good when he had protection last week.
Rest 'Em:
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - He's run well against them in the past, but Titans run defense looks stouter than ever.
St. Louis at Washington
Ride 'Em:
Washington Defense - Marc Bulger is still not fantastic and he doesn't have any real threatening weapons except SJax, who will have to deal with Albert Haynesworth all day long.
Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - If you were on the fence about starting him after a struggle in Week 1, hang your doubts and watch him rack up points with punishing yards and probably TDs this week.
Rest 'Em:
Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Look, he's talented, but he's only ever had ONE really great season. And he looked a little slow to me against Seattle. If he catches the ball, maybe he'll be okay, but LaRon Landry is lurking and WAS secondary is vicious and fast.
Seattle at San Francisco
Ride 'Em:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - SF's corners are overrated, but I kind of expect a few turnovers with SF blitz packages.
Frank Gore, RB, SF - Last week I was down on him and he scored twice. This week, I don't expect great results, but give me a TD and 5 or 6 catches and yardage around 90-100.
Rest 'Em:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA - Still not sure he breaks out against a good linebacker corps. Still, 5-7 catches, but not huge yards. TD unlikely.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Ride 'Em:
Cadillac Williams, RB, TB - He looked great on more than a few runs on Sunday against Dallas and the O-line was blocking well. That should continue this week with LB Posluszney out.
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Face it, he IS their offense right now.
Rest 'Em:
Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - Still not buying it, but CB Barber is aging and he may very likely draw T.O. assignment.
Pittsburgh at Chicago
Ride 'Em:
Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - I have believed in Santonio since he was a senior at Ohio State. He's rarely disappointed... Except when I drafted him last year and he never broke 100 yards and scored only from my bench. Argh. One year too early, I guess.
Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Shifty runners like Forte seem to mess with the Steelers, and he'll be used after a lightweight performance last week. Usually I recommend sitting a RB against Pittsburgh, but without Polamalu, it's just a different defense.
Rest 'Em:
Devin Hester, WR, CHI - CB Ike Taylor is nearly as fast as Hester and much taller, which could mean a long day for Hester... or a long TD.
Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Until further notice, all Pittsburgh rushers are off-limits.
Cleveland at Denver
Ride 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Had a TD taken off the board against Minnesota and QB Quinn seemed to be looking for him.
Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Okay, I know I used this last week, but in Week 2 last year, he had 18 FREAKING CATCHES!!
Rest 'Em:
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Even AP was well contained for a half against Cleveland last week, and Moreno will only get half of the carries, if that much.
Baltimore at San Diego
Ride 'Em:
Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - Dwayne Bowe caught a short TD for KC last week, so maybe VJax can duplicate his effort.
Ravens Defense - I see Rivers throwing a Pick-6 in the direction of Ed Reed this week, who will drop back a lot without threat of Tomlinson for SD.
Rest 'Em:
Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Timing is everything, so it's unfortunate timing that LT got hurt and Sproles gets a tough matchup against Ravens. Against most teams he'd be a stud.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Ride 'Em:
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, RBs, NYG - Easy to see them doing well against a Dallas Defense that allowed a TD each to Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams.
NYG Defense - That D-line looks fiercer than ever before, and although Romo is elusive, count on a few sacks and a turnover or two.
Rest 'Em:
Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Well, it's not that I think he'll have a bad game, but I don't think he'll have time to get deep with NYG pass rush in Romo's face all day.
More Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em tomorrow when I'll break down the Monday Night game between the Colts and Dolphins.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Had a Bad Week 1? Don't panic!
So, you're sitting in last place after one week and you scored just about the fewest points in the league.
Believe it or not, I am in that position. But, luckily there is a virtually fool-proof way to make sure you don't stay in the basement:
DON'T BLOW YOUR TEAM UP AFTER ONE WEEK!
Here's some studs that had a poor showing in week one, but should rebound and lead your team to victory:
Michael Turner, RB, ATL - 65 yards rushing is fairly underwhelming for a top 3 pick, but he's in a good offense that likes to run and he should not be held down for long.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs knows he didn't run hard enough and will be motivated to get better this week. After seeing how Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams did against Dallas last week, Jacobs should see inflated numbers. After all, everything's bigger in Texas, especially stats and Jacbos is super-sized to begin with.
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Don't worry about his meager 57 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh, he looked really good on a few runs and broke a few long ones against one of the toughest defenses in the league. And now he gets to play against Houston and we all saw what Thomas Jones did to them last week (104 rush yards, 2TDs). Rebound central.
Clinton Portis, RB, WSH - After a fairly weak performance against a stout NYG defense, he should rebound nicely against the Shams... I mean, Rams this weekend. They allowed Julius Jones (career underachiever) 117 yards on the ground. Enjoy a physical performance from Portis this week.
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - The whole offensive line was dominated against the Jets, who happen to play a pretty mean style of defense, if you hadn't noticed. This could happen to anyone. Slaton's schedule isn't very friendly as he draws Tennessee this weekend, but don't give up on him too early. His playoff schedule is among the friendliest in the league for fantasy, and the road softens significantly when the bye weeks start.
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - See Slaton, Steve. As soon as the offensive line gives Matt Schaub a little time to throw, Johnson will resume his stud status, and his playoff schedule is incredible.
Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Quarterback issues aside, Smith is still a stud and will still get his catches and yards. Philadelphia was a tough matchup and Jake Delhomme was a mess again. But, either he'll improve, or they'll find other ways of getting Smith the ball. No worries... yet.
Roddy White, WR, ATL - Atlanta was busy trying out their new toy in Tony Gonzalez and playing stellar defense and White's production suffered as a result. Gonzalez's presence shouldn't be a detriment to him in the long run, but you still can't expect a whole lot of touchdowns from him.
Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - An injury kept Boldin from being his normal, dominant self, but he'll be healed soon and Arizona's passing offense will wake up and realize they're still elite. Tim Hightower will probably never out-catch Boldin again.
Dallas Clark, TE, IND - With the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, Clark is clearly the second option in Manning's attack, behind only Reggie Wayne. Don't fret, his game will pick up soon, and he's traditionally not the fastest starter, but he winds up just fine.
Eddie Royal, WR, DEN - In PPR leagues, this guy was a real disappointment. He pulled in only 2 receptions, and was barely a factor. Use that information to try to get him cheaply this week. He's going to be fine, I think, but the Bengals corners are underrated and physically larger, leading to his problems this week. He should find more openings against Cleveland and will be helped out if the running game picks up.
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - See Slaton, Steve and Johnson, Andre. The Jets play good defense and after Tennessee this weekend (assuming he can stay healthy) the schedule gets much softer and Schaub should be able to stand in the pocket and pick his targets easily. It's just a matter of his staying healthy through this weekend; no guarantee against the tough D-line of the Titans.
Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - The coaching staff should address Cutler's inability to throw the ball away on a busted play and he may throw only 3 interceptions against the Steelers this weekend, but after that he's got some fantasy-friendly defenses coming up, including a juicy Week 4 matchup with Detroit and it's paper mache defense and hopefully a shootout with Arizona in November.
Remember, it's just one week. While the temptation may be there to blow up the team and sell off those who didn't perform, the payoff is almost never worth it. The idea (as I've said before) is to Buy Low, Sell High.
Believe it or not, I am in that position. But, luckily there is a virtually fool-proof way to make sure you don't stay in the basement:
DON'T BLOW YOUR TEAM UP AFTER ONE WEEK!
Here's some studs that had a poor showing in week one, but should rebound and lead your team to victory:
Michael Turner, RB, ATL - 65 yards rushing is fairly underwhelming for a top 3 pick, but he's in a good offense that likes to run and he should not be held down for long.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs knows he didn't run hard enough and will be motivated to get better this week. After seeing how Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams did against Dallas last week, Jacobs should see inflated numbers. After all, everything's bigger in Texas, especially stats and Jacbos is super-sized to begin with.
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Don't worry about his meager 57 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh, he looked really good on a few runs and broke a few long ones against one of the toughest defenses in the league. And now he gets to play against Houston and we all saw what Thomas Jones did to them last week (104 rush yards, 2TDs). Rebound central.
Clinton Portis, RB, WSH - After a fairly weak performance against a stout NYG defense, he should rebound nicely against the Shams... I mean, Rams this weekend. They allowed Julius Jones (career underachiever) 117 yards on the ground. Enjoy a physical performance from Portis this week.
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - The whole offensive line was dominated against the Jets, who happen to play a pretty mean style of defense, if you hadn't noticed. This could happen to anyone. Slaton's schedule isn't very friendly as he draws Tennessee this weekend, but don't give up on him too early. His playoff schedule is among the friendliest in the league for fantasy, and the road softens significantly when the bye weeks start.
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - See Slaton, Steve. As soon as the offensive line gives Matt Schaub a little time to throw, Johnson will resume his stud status, and his playoff schedule is incredible.
Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Quarterback issues aside, Smith is still a stud and will still get his catches and yards. Philadelphia was a tough matchup and Jake Delhomme was a mess again. But, either he'll improve, or they'll find other ways of getting Smith the ball. No worries... yet.
Roddy White, WR, ATL - Atlanta was busy trying out their new toy in Tony Gonzalez and playing stellar defense and White's production suffered as a result. Gonzalez's presence shouldn't be a detriment to him in the long run, but you still can't expect a whole lot of touchdowns from him.
Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - An injury kept Boldin from being his normal, dominant self, but he'll be healed soon and Arizona's passing offense will wake up and realize they're still elite. Tim Hightower will probably never out-catch Boldin again.
Dallas Clark, TE, IND - With the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, Clark is clearly the second option in Manning's attack, behind only Reggie Wayne. Don't fret, his game will pick up soon, and he's traditionally not the fastest starter, but he winds up just fine.
Eddie Royal, WR, DEN - In PPR leagues, this guy was a real disappointment. He pulled in only 2 receptions, and was barely a factor. Use that information to try to get him cheaply this week. He's going to be fine, I think, but the Bengals corners are underrated and physically larger, leading to his problems this week. He should find more openings against Cleveland and will be helped out if the running game picks up.
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - See Slaton, Steve and Johnson, Andre. The Jets play good defense and after Tennessee this weekend (assuming he can stay healthy) the schedule gets much softer and Schaub should be able to stand in the pocket and pick his targets easily. It's just a matter of his staying healthy through this weekend; no guarantee against the tough D-line of the Titans.
Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - The coaching staff should address Cutler's inability to throw the ball away on a busted play and he may throw only 3 interceptions against the Steelers this weekend, but after that he's got some fantasy-friendly defenses coming up, including a juicy Week 4 matchup with Detroit and it's paper mache defense and hopefully a shootout with Arizona in November.
Remember, it's just one week. While the temptation may be there to blow up the team and sell off those who didn't perform, the payoff is almost never worth it. The idea (as I've said before) is to Buy Low, Sell High.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
From the Wild World of the Waiver Wire
All alliteration aside, there are some names out there that simply shouldn't be. Go pick up Mike Bell if he's available before you even finish reading this post.
...
Seriously, go.
Okay, good. Now, for more pickups.
Louis Murphy, WR, OAK - Murphy had a fairly useful game on Monday night. He would have had 2 TDs and over 100 yards if his touchdown late in the first half against San Diego hadn't been overturned by replay. I know tying your receiver's fate to JaMarcus Russell isn't the most pleasing prospect, but he's got to throw to someone, right? The Raiders look significantly less suck-ish than I thought they would, so Murphy might be worth something as a 4th or maybe even third receiver.
Chansi Stuckey, WR, NYJ - Again, people reluctant to get WRs that have unproven QBs, but Sanchez looked pretty good against the Texans on Sunday. Okay, fine, so that proves nothing, but he did lay a beautiful deep ball there for an easy TD to Stuckey, and that wasn't his only time targeting him, as Chansi reeled in four catches. No lame "take a 'chance' on Chansi" word play, although I admit, I do like to do that sometimes.
Michael Clayton, WR, TB - Maybe this is the year Clayton re-lives his rookie season brilliance. And all it took was some fastballs from Byron Leftwich. 5 catches, 94 yards, that's not terrible in fantasy and he's tall enough that he could get some red zone targets, too. Don't hesitate to add him, because he's got a Buffalo defense this week that was eaten alive by Randy Moss and Wes Welker last week. Clayton could build on his week one success and you could reap the benefits.
Carnell Williams, RB, TB - I liked the Tampa Bay offense this week (or maybe just a weak Dallas defense?) but Williams is owned in far to few leagues (17 percent of yahoo leagues). 97 yards and a TD on only 13 carries and he's available. Derrick Ward also had a serviceable game for fantasy owners with 83 yards of total offense and a TD of his own. If this timeshare (involving only 2 backs, we hope) works out like this each week, owners will have this year's version of Chris Johnson/LenDale White from last season. And I have to admit, I like that prospect.
Mike Bell, RB, NO - Anyone who gets 28 carries against Detroit should have a good game. Bell was exactly that. Good. Not great, but certainly earned himself some more carries with his 5.3 yards per carry. Yes, it was against Detroit. No, I don't expect him to repeat such numbers again consistently, but Pierre Thomas' knees are not good for standing, so Bell will continue to have value. If he DOES manage to get the starting job full-time (a Pierre Thomas injury or something) he'll have a decent playoff schedule (@Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay) and could be instrumental in helping the Saints run out the clock in those games. Only owned in 10 percent of yahoo leagues (including mine).
Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Didn't look awful against New England although he checked down to running backs and TEs waaaayyy more often than he probably should have. Still, he does have weapons, albeit weapons that he'll utilize slightly differently than they had been in the past (**coughTcoughO**). Anyway, Edwards did just fine avoiding turnovers and running the no-huddle (well, that's debatable) and he threw two TDs, so he's not a bad bye-week fill-in.
Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - He was probably taken in your league, but he's still available in 70 percent of all leagues on yahoo. He was great in his second season debut, throwing early and often and accurately, for the most part, even picking up a few rushing yards. Yea, it was against KC, but a strong performance none the less. Maybe JaMarcus Russell throws 3 TDs against KC, too.
Atlanta Falcons Defense - Manhandled Miami for most of the game Sunday and this week they get to host Carolina and turnover-specialist Jake Delhomme. I don't expect Jake to be quite as erratic, but he'll probably still throw a few picks here or there and Atlanta should concentrate primarily on stopping the run. Only owned in 19 percent of yahoo leagues and a fairly great matchup this week.
...
Seriously, go.
Okay, good. Now, for more pickups.
Louis Murphy, WR, OAK - Murphy had a fairly useful game on Monday night. He would have had 2 TDs and over 100 yards if his touchdown late in the first half against San Diego hadn't been overturned by replay. I know tying your receiver's fate to JaMarcus Russell isn't the most pleasing prospect, but he's got to throw to someone, right? The Raiders look significantly less suck-ish than I thought they would, so Murphy might be worth something as a 4th or maybe even third receiver.
Chansi Stuckey, WR, NYJ - Again, people reluctant to get WRs that have unproven QBs, but Sanchez looked pretty good against the Texans on Sunday. Okay, fine, so that proves nothing, but he did lay a beautiful deep ball there for an easy TD to Stuckey, and that wasn't his only time targeting him, as Chansi reeled in four catches. No lame "take a 'chance' on Chansi" word play, although I admit, I do like to do that sometimes.
Michael Clayton, WR, TB - Maybe this is the year Clayton re-lives his rookie season brilliance. And all it took was some fastballs from Byron Leftwich. 5 catches, 94 yards, that's not terrible in fantasy and he's tall enough that he could get some red zone targets, too. Don't hesitate to add him, because he's got a Buffalo defense this week that was eaten alive by Randy Moss and Wes Welker last week. Clayton could build on his week one success and you could reap the benefits.
Carnell Williams, RB, TB - I liked the Tampa Bay offense this week (or maybe just a weak Dallas defense?) but Williams is owned in far to few leagues (17 percent of yahoo leagues). 97 yards and a TD on only 13 carries and he's available. Derrick Ward also had a serviceable game for fantasy owners with 83 yards of total offense and a TD of his own. If this timeshare (involving only 2 backs, we hope) works out like this each week, owners will have this year's version of Chris Johnson/LenDale White from last season. And I have to admit, I like that prospect.
Mike Bell, RB, NO - Anyone who gets 28 carries against Detroit should have a good game. Bell was exactly that. Good. Not great, but certainly earned himself some more carries with his 5.3 yards per carry. Yes, it was against Detroit. No, I don't expect him to repeat such numbers again consistently, but Pierre Thomas' knees are not good for standing, so Bell will continue to have value. If he DOES manage to get the starting job full-time (a Pierre Thomas injury or something) he'll have a decent playoff schedule (@Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay) and could be instrumental in helping the Saints run out the clock in those games. Only owned in 10 percent of yahoo leagues (including mine).
Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Didn't look awful against New England although he checked down to running backs and TEs waaaayyy more often than he probably should have. Still, he does have weapons, albeit weapons that he'll utilize slightly differently than they had been in the past (**coughTcoughO**). Anyway, Edwards did just fine avoiding turnovers and running the no-huddle (well, that's debatable) and he threw two TDs, so he's not a bad bye-week fill-in.
Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - He was probably taken in your league, but he's still available in 70 percent of all leagues on yahoo. He was great in his second season debut, throwing early and often and accurately, for the most part, even picking up a few rushing yards. Yea, it was against KC, but a strong performance none the less. Maybe JaMarcus Russell throws 3 TDs against KC, too.
Atlanta Falcons Defense - Manhandled Miami for most of the game Sunday and this week they get to host Carolina and turnover-specialist Jake Delhomme. I don't expect Jake to be quite as erratic, but he'll probably still throw a few picks here or there and Atlanta should concentrate primarily on stopping the run. Only owned in 19 percent of yahoo leagues and a fairly great matchup this week.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week One
I'll pick a player or two from each team that you should ride to fantasy glory, or rest and send out someone else in their place.
Philadelphia at Carolina
Ride 'Em:
Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI - Carolina might have just enough offense to make this game into a shootout.
Mushin Muhammad, WR, CAR - No other receiver has stepped up to become a reliable #2 to Steve Smith, plus Muhammad's size makes him a decent bet to score against smaller Eagles corners.
Rest 'Em:
Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Injury issues in the preseason make this a risky week to start him, unless you've got no other option.
Minnesota at Cleveland
Ride 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Motivated to make up for last year's shortcomings (read: drops) and Cleveland will need to throw often.
Minnesota Defense - Young QB and old RB starting for Cleveland, very few threats. Only thing that could derail them is an untimely Brett Favre interception.
Rest 'Em:
Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Brett likes to wait til week 2 to make an impact and although Cleveland's corners are weak, this feels like an AP All-Day kind of game.
Jamaal Lewis, RB, CLE - Old. Slow. Against the Williams brothers, and Vike's defensive front? No thank you.
Kansas City at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:
Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - No one noteworthy rushing the passer on the Chief's D, nor anyone decent in secondary. Mason will play well, too.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - He's probably the only consistent player on KC, and the only one that warrants a start this week, but QB instability means you should temper your expectations.
Rest 'Em:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC - Injured and even if he DOES play, the Ravens D will likely feast on him.
Denver at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Yuck, but Denver's defense is weak, Cincy is committed to running and no one is taking carries from him. Worth a RB2.
Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Most in your league probably stayed away from Marshall, but coming off suspension last year he had 18 catches. Encore anyone?
Rest 'Em:
Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Palmer uncertain and will draw coverage from Champ Bailey (overrated but still good) all day.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Ride 'Em:
David Garrard, QB, JAC - Especially if Bob Sanders is out. This goes for Marcedes Lewis, too. Short passes, no INTs for Garrard.
Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Just have a feeling he's not going to be nearly as bad as everyone thought he would be. Not bad as an RB2 against an older D-line.
Rest 'Em:
Torry Holt, WR, JAC - Don't love him as he's aged poorly and probably not going to go for big gains as Garrard dinks and dunks around Indy.
Detroit at New Orleans
Ride 'Em:
Anyone New Orleans Player not Named Pierre - Detroit had the worst defense in the league last year. Ride 'em all.
Kevin Smith, RB, DET - With a rookie QB, it's tough to think they won't at least TRY to run.
Rest 'Em:
Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Out with an injury.
New York Jets at Houston
Ride 'Em:
Most Texans players - Houston has a loaded offense, in theory, anyway. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton should have decent to good games each week.
Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - Houston also has a fairly weak defense (except for LB Ryans), and Jones (early in the season, anyway) shouldn't have a difficult time.
Rest 'Em:
Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ - You weren't REALLY going to start him anyway, right?
Miami at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - I like him more than most, and I don't expect Williams to take away carries.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL - The new toy in Atlanta should be looked for frequently as they test out the new weapon.
Rest 'Em:
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, MIA - Nothing significant to show in 2 years, wait til he shows something before you gamble with him.
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:
Felix Jones, RB, DAL - Breakaway threat anytime, and Tampa's defense is old and without a good coordinator.
Rest 'Em:
Tampa Bay Defense - The end of last year was the end of their greatness. Look elsewhere.
San Francisco at Arizona
Ride 'Em:
Shaun Hill, QB, SF - Arizona scores lots at home, so he'll be behind, meaning lots of throwing opportunities perhaps picking them apart in garbage time.
Any Cardinals Passing game threat - They score a ton, but Fitzgerald might succumb to Madden curse!
Rest 'Em:
Frank Gore, RB, SF - Seems like a stud, right? Arizona stops run well, especially at home. PPR league might be okay, though.
St. Louis at Seattle
Ride 'Em:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - Bounceback year starts against weak St. Louis secondary, with new WR Houshmandzadeh.
Rest 'Em:
Marc Bulger, QB, STL - No threats at receiver, no offensive line, no running game. Weak fantasy scorer, too.
Washington at New York Giants
Ride 'Em:
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Manning has few legit receivers and only threat on Washington's D is new DT Haynesworth.
Giants Defense - Pass rush should be dominant again, meaning sacks and turnovers will be abundant.
Rest 'Em:
Santana Moss, WR, WSH - As QB Campbell is pressured, he'll have less time to get open deep.
Chicago at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:
Green Bay Defense - Cutler has the potential for 4TDs or 4 turnovers.
Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Tony Scheffler had some great stats last year with Cutler at QB.
Rest 'Em:
Chicago Defense - With Hester more involved in offense, the special teams take a hit, devaluing the D/ST a ton.
Buffalo at New England
Ride 'Em:
Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - No one else in Buffalo worth starting.
Any Patriot involved in Passing game - Duh. Brady's back.
Rest 'Em:
Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Like I said, no one else in Buffalo worth starting.
San Diego at Oakland
Ride 'Em:
Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Now officially a starter and will be used in passing game, too.
Any Chargers you have - Um, Oakland is nothing on defense (unless Seymour magically appears) and Rivers and Tomlinson will come up big.
Rest 'Em:
JaMarcus Russell - Hasn't shown promise yet, so wait til he shows something before you risk it.
Philadelphia at Carolina
Ride 'Em:
Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI - Carolina might have just enough offense to make this game into a shootout.
Mushin Muhammad, WR, CAR - No other receiver has stepped up to become a reliable #2 to Steve Smith, plus Muhammad's size makes him a decent bet to score against smaller Eagles corners.
Rest 'Em:
Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Injury issues in the preseason make this a risky week to start him, unless you've got no other option.
Minnesota at Cleveland
Ride 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Motivated to make up for last year's shortcomings (read: drops) and Cleveland will need to throw often.
Minnesota Defense - Young QB and old RB starting for Cleveland, very few threats. Only thing that could derail them is an untimely Brett Favre interception.
Rest 'Em:
Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Brett likes to wait til week 2 to make an impact and although Cleveland's corners are weak, this feels like an AP All-Day kind of game.
Jamaal Lewis, RB, CLE - Old. Slow. Against the Williams brothers, and Vike's defensive front? No thank you.
Kansas City at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:
Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - No one noteworthy rushing the passer on the Chief's D, nor anyone decent in secondary. Mason will play well, too.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - He's probably the only consistent player on KC, and the only one that warrants a start this week, but QB instability means you should temper your expectations.
Rest 'Em:
Matt Cassel, QB, KC - Injured and even if he DOES play, the Ravens D will likely feast on him.
Denver at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Yuck, but Denver's defense is weak, Cincy is committed to running and no one is taking carries from him. Worth a RB2.
Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Most in your league probably stayed away from Marshall, but coming off suspension last year he had 18 catches. Encore anyone?
Rest 'Em:
Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Palmer uncertain and will draw coverage from Champ Bailey (overrated but still good) all day.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Ride 'Em:
David Garrard, QB, JAC - Especially if Bob Sanders is out. This goes for Marcedes Lewis, too. Short passes, no INTs for Garrard.
Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Just have a feeling he's not going to be nearly as bad as everyone thought he would be. Not bad as an RB2 against an older D-line.
Rest 'Em:
Torry Holt, WR, JAC - Don't love him as he's aged poorly and probably not going to go for big gains as Garrard dinks and dunks around Indy.
Detroit at New Orleans
Ride 'Em:
Anyone New Orleans Player not Named Pierre - Detroit had the worst defense in the league last year. Ride 'em all.
Kevin Smith, RB, DET - With a rookie QB, it's tough to think they won't at least TRY to run.
Rest 'Em:
Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Out with an injury.
New York Jets at Houston
Ride 'Em:
Most Texans players - Houston has a loaded offense, in theory, anyway. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton should have decent to good games each week.
Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - Houston also has a fairly weak defense (except for LB Ryans), and Jones (early in the season, anyway) shouldn't have a difficult time.
Rest 'Em:
Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ - You weren't REALLY going to start him anyway, right?
Miami at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - I like him more than most, and I don't expect Williams to take away carries.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL - The new toy in Atlanta should be looked for frequently as they test out the new weapon.
Rest 'Em:
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, MIA - Nothing significant to show in 2 years, wait til he shows something before you gamble with him.
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:
Felix Jones, RB, DAL - Breakaway threat anytime, and Tampa's defense is old and without a good coordinator.
Rest 'Em:
Tampa Bay Defense - The end of last year was the end of their greatness. Look elsewhere.
San Francisco at Arizona
Ride 'Em:
Shaun Hill, QB, SF - Arizona scores lots at home, so he'll be behind, meaning lots of throwing opportunities perhaps picking them apart in garbage time.
Any Cardinals Passing game threat - They score a ton, but Fitzgerald might succumb to Madden curse!
Rest 'Em:
Frank Gore, RB, SF - Seems like a stud, right? Arizona stops run well, especially at home. PPR league might be okay, though.
St. Louis at Seattle
Ride 'Em:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - Bounceback year starts against weak St. Louis secondary, with new WR Houshmandzadeh.
Rest 'Em:
Marc Bulger, QB, STL - No threats at receiver, no offensive line, no running game. Weak fantasy scorer, too.
Washington at New York Giants
Ride 'Em:
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Manning has few legit receivers and only threat on Washington's D is new DT Haynesworth.
Giants Defense - Pass rush should be dominant again, meaning sacks and turnovers will be abundant.
Rest 'Em:
Santana Moss, WR, WSH - As QB Campbell is pressured, he'll have less time to get open deep.
Chicago at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:
Green Bay Defense - Cutler has the potential for 4TDs or 4 turnovers.
Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Tony Scheffler had some great stats last year with Cutler at QB.
Rest 'Em:
Chicago Defense - With Hester more involved in offense, the special teams take a hit, devaluing the D/ST a ton.
Buffalo at New England
Ride 'Em:
Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - No one else in Buffalo worth starting.
Any Patriot involved in Passing game - Duh. Brady's back.
Rest 'Em:
Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Like I said, no one else in Buffalo worth starting.
San Diego at Oakland
Ride 'Em:
Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Now officially a starter and will be used in passing game, too.
Any Chargers you have - Um, Oakland is nothing on defense (unless Seymour magically appears) and Rivers and Tomlinson will come up big.
Rest 'Em:
JaMarcus Russell - Hasn't shown promise yet, so wait til he shows something before you risk it.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week 1 Titans at Steelers
Opening night of the NFL season is upon us.
FINALLY.
In less than 48 hours, our waiting will be over and football season can begin again.
HOORAY!
For each game this season, I'll pick two players from each team that you should start (Ride 'Em) or sit (Rest 'Em). I'm using standard scoring here, so nothing fancy.
Week 1 Titans at Steelers
RIDE 'EM
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Roethlisberger has a track record. He always tends to play well (very well, in fact) in the first game of each season. Last year, he was 13 of 14 for 169 and 2 TDs against the Texans, he shredded Cleveland for 4 TDs in the opening game the previous year, and was 9-for-11 for 218 and 2 TDs against Tennessee to open 2005. He missed Week 1 in 2006. The offense somehow consistently starts the season great, so expect good numbers from Ben.
Projection: 20-for-28, 250 yards, 2-3 TDs, 0 INTs.
Hines Ward, WR, PIT - Hines was fairly dominant against the Titans last year and now he has the home fans to further fuel his fire. In Tennessee last year, he hauled in 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD. Maybe expecting 100 yards is unlikely, but the TD is not.
Projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
REST 'EM
LenDale White, RB, TEN - Although they each had about half the carries, LenDale White is clearly second fiddle to Chris Johnson. White had 48 yards at a TD last time, and while that isn't terrible, you should be able to find better. The Steelers have a stout run defense, and White ran his mouth after the last game. James Harrison is angry about that, and you don't want to make Harrison angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Projection: 12 rushes, 35 yards, 0 TDs
Kerry Collins, QB, TEN - Collins tends to follow up a good year with a fairly lousy one. It's happened at just about every stop (New York to Oakland to Tennessee). This is the start of another bad year, which could be good news for Vince Young (but don't play him, either... in fact, don't EVER play him until you get written permission from me to do so).
Projection: 14-for-28, 190 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.
Look out for more Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em before this weekend's games.
FINALLY.
In less than 48 hours, our waiting will be over and football season can begin again.
HOORAY!
For each game this season, I'll pick two players from each team that you should start (Ride 'Em) or sit (Rest 'Em). I'm using standard scoring here, so nothing fancy.
Week 1 Titans at Steelers
RIDE 'EM
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Roethlisberger has a track record. He always tends to play well (very well, in fact) in the first game of each season. Last year, he was 13 of 14 for 169 and 2 TDs against the Texans, he shredded Cleveland for 4 TDs in the opening game the previous year, and was 9-for-11 for 218 and 2 TDs against Tennessee to open 2005. He missed Week 1 in 2006. The offense somehow consistently starts the season great, so expect good numbers from Ben.
Projection: 20-for-28, 250 yards, 2-3 TDs, 0 INTs.
Hines Ward, WR, PIT - Hines was fairly dominant against the Titans last year and now he has the home fans to further fuel his fire. In Tennessee last year, he hauled in 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD. Maybe expecting 100 yards is unlikely, but the TD is not.
Projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
REST 'EM
LenDale White, RB, TEN - Although they each had about half the carries, LenDale White is clearly second fiddle to Chris Johnson. White had 48 yards at a TD last time, and while that isn't terrible, you should be able to find better. The Steelers have a stout run defense, and White ran his mouth after the last game. James Harrison is angry about that, and you don't want to make Harrison angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Projection: 12 rushes, 35 yards, 0 TDs
Kerry Collins, QB, TEN - Collins tends to follow up a good year with a fairly lousy one. It's happened at just about every stop (New York to Oakland to Tennessee). This is the start of another bad year, which could be good news for Vince Young (but don't play him, either... in fact, don't EVER play him until you get written permission from me to do so).
Projection: 14-for-28, 190 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.
Look out for more Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em before this weekend's games.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Spin-juries
Injury news is important in the NFL, but it's value might be TRIPLED in fantasy.
Here's a few recent training camp injuries and some spin about what you might need to do if it affects your team.
INJURY: Matt Cassel, QB, KC - I haven't mentioned it, but I tend to have a curse that rivals that of a recently retired broadcaster. It only applies to QBs, though. Dante Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tom Brady, the list goes on and on... If I own them, something dreadful happens (injury, poor play, etc). Such is the case with Cassel, who went down on Thursday night with an ankle injury.
SPIN: The injury is expected to keep him out for 2-4 weeks, and he'll likely miss the Week 1 opener against Baltimore, if not more. You probably weren't going to expect much against the Ravens, but it's time to seek other options for week one (and potentially longer).
-----
INJURY: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs injured his arm in Saturday night's game against the Jets, further affirming his reputation as an injury-prone risk at RB.
SPIN: The X-Rays were negative, but when Jacobs returned to the game, he promptly fumbled. This is not a good sign, but nothing to panic over. Make sure you move to acquire Ahmad Bradshaw if you don't already have him on your bench as he would likely receive the bulk of the work if Jacobs proves ineffective or aggravates the injury.
-----
INJURY: Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Schaub (another QB I own, currently) hurt his ankle while running for a first down Monday night against Minnesota.
SPIN: Schaub has yet to shed the "injury prone" tag and this certainly won't help. He appeared willing to play through the pain and completed 2 passes after returning to the game with the ankle taped. Check back on Tuesday, though, to make sure this injury isn't worse. Losing Schaub would greatly decrease the value of his receivers, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels, although it may not have any affect on RB Steve Slaton's value.
-----
INJURY: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Speaking of Walter, he left the game Monday night with a hamstring injury.
SPIN: Hopefully this isn't going to be a lingering concern for Walter, who had somewhat of a breakout season last year. He won't play next week (as is the case for most starters in the last preseason game) so check his status before you activate him for Week 1. If he doesn't practice leading up to the game, chances are he won't play, or won't play well. If you have other options, they might be wise.
-----
INJURY: Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Stewart has missed the entire preseason with an Achilles injury.
SPIN: Stewart had an injury stigma attached to him out of college, but that was basically eliminated after last season. If he's not able to go, DeAngelo Williams' value rises considerably, but there are more than enough carries to support both backs. As long as you weren't relying on Stewart as a number 2 back in your league, you should have some time to wait as Stewart rests and heals.
-----
INJURY: Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Berrian did not play in Monday night's preseason game in Houston with an aggravated hamstring.
SPIN: This should come as no surprise to Berrian owners. He has been out of practice lately, but appears to be targeting week 1 as his return to action. Keep tabs on him, but don't expect too much of a drop off from the inconsistent results you'd normally get from Berrian.
More Spin-juries to come.
Here's a few recent training camp injuries and some spin about what you might need to do if it affects your team.
INJURY: Matt Cassel, QB, KC - I haven't mentioned it, but I tend to have a curse that rivals that of a recently retired broadcaster. It only applies to QBs, though. Dante Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Tom Brady, the list goes on and on... If I own them, something dreadful happens (injury, poor play, etc). Such is the case with Cassel, who went down on Thursday night with an ankle injury.
SPIN: The injury is expected to keep him out for 2-4 weeks, and he'll likely miss the Week 1 opener against Baltimore, if not more. You probably weren't going to expect much against the Ravens, but it's time to seek other options for week one (and potentially longer).
-----
INJURY: Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs injured his arm in Saturday night's game against the Jets, further affirming his reputation as an injury-prone risk at RB.
SPIN: The X-Rays were negative, but when Jacobs returned to the game, he promptly fumbled. This is not a good sign, but nothing to panic over. Make sure you move to acquire Ahmad Bradshaw if you don't already have him on your bench as he would likely receive the bulk of the work if Jacobs proves ineffective or aggravates the injury.
-----
INJURY: Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Schaub (another QB I own, currently) hurt his ankle while running for a first down Monday night against Minnesota.
SPIN: Schaub has yet to shed the "injury prone" tag and this certainly won't help. He appeared willing to play through the pain and completed 2 passes after returning to the game with the ankle taped. Check back on Tuesday, though, to make sure this injury isn't worse. Losing Schaub would greatly decrease the value of his receivers, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels, although it may not have any affect on RB Steve Slaton's value.
-----
INJURY: Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Speaking of Walter, he left the game Monday night with a hamstring injury.
SPIN: Hopefully this isn't going to be a lingering concern for Walter, who had somewhat of a breakout season last year. He won't play next week (as is the case for most starters in the last preseason game) so check his status before you activate him for Week 1. If he doesn't practice leading up to the game, chances are he won't play, or won't play well. If you have other options, they might be wise.
-----
INJURY: Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Stewart has missed the entire preseason with an Achilles injury.
SPIN: Stewart had an injury stigma attached to him out of college, but that was basically eliminated after last season. If he's not able to go, DeAngelo Williams' value rises considerably, but there are more than enough carries to support both backs. As long as you weren't relying on Stewart as a number 2 back in your league, you should have some time to wait as Stewart rests and heals.
-----
INJURY: Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Berrian did not play in Monday night's preseason game in Houston with an aggravated hamstring.
SPIN: This should come as no surprise to Berrian owners. He has been out of practice lately, but appears to be targeting week 1 as his return to action. Keep tabs on him, but don't expect too much of a drop off from the inconsistent results you'd normally get from Berrian.
More Spin-juries to come.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Draft Strategy: After the Studs
If I've learned anything from the countless hours I've spent searching the internet for mock drafts and participating in a few of my own, I can tell you that there is value to be had late in the draft.
Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.
Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.
One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?
Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.
Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.
In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.
But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.
When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).
Tonight, I got a call from one of my family members seeking advice in their league draft. He was set at QB, had two very serviceable running backs (and one backup with upside), three upper-middle-tier receivers, and an elite defense. He was concerned about backups, though. Right off the bat, he asked me if he should take Brett Favre as a backup to Drew Brees, because he might as well get a good backup for Brees in the event of an injury.
Let's think about this idea:
9 rounds are in the books, and while his starters were mostly taken care of, he hadn't yet landed a TE.
His starting running backs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) are both over 30, which isn't a good thing. His backup, Donald Brown, is in a timeshare right now, at best.
Brett Favre, although he was once a high-caliber gunslinger, isn't anymore what he used to be, not even slightly.
One more thing to think about: If you invest a high pick in a stud QB, no backup will be likely to live up to the expectations that you had for the stud. So, why waste a roster spot on someone who isn't going to see a starting spot more than once a season?
Instead of wasting a spot on a backup QB, TE or Kicker, drafting depth is almost always the way to go. If you have an elite defense (Pittsburgh or Baltimore, for example), you don't need to worry about a backup for that position, either, as you can pick up something cheap on the waiver wires as a one-week fill-in.
Hypothetically, if Brian Westbrook or Thomas Jones were to succumb to injuries, I know that I'd feel much better if I had LeSean McCoy, Shonne Green or Leon Washington on my bench.
Don't be the guy who has to start T.J. Duckett because your lead horse is stuck in the mud.
In the middle rounds, you're going for solid contributors that can fill-in for bye weeks, or will be solid week-to-week in the event of an injury to a starter.
But when it gets really late in the game, after you have backed up your starters with at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, you can start shooting for the moon. These players should have boom or bust potential. You want these players to have the potential to become studs, but to get them at a significantly discounted price.
When my relative called me tonight, he made a comment that made me really think. He said that after his starting lineup was complete, "The rest is just fluff."
I urged him that EVERY position on your team is important, just like in the real NFL. Players should be FIGHTING to get on your roster (obviously, they won't be, but every roster spot is a valuable one).
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