The Problem with Trading

I have something you need to make your team better.
You have something I need to make MY team better.
Interestingly, we're completely unable to make a deal that's acceptable to both sides.

Why?

Scott Burton of Football Outsiders and ESPN.com Insider wrote a very interesting theory about the difficulties involved with trading. Burton uses an interesting metaphor to describe it:

14,000 people stood in line for tickets to an exclusive event. Half of them would get tickets based on a random lottery. Before the lottery to decide who would get tickets, presumably everyone would agree to pay the same amount for the tickets. Everyone's time is just as valuable and everyone wants the tickets just as much as the others.
But after? Surprisingly, the people who LOST the lottery were only willing to pay about $200 for the tickets, while people who WON were ASKING about 10 times that amount. What's the difference, though? The difference is that people are much less willing to part with what they OWN. This connection is an irrational, emotional connection, according to Burton.

We don't play Fantasy Football with emotion, though. We play with numbers. And here's the main problem: Some owners, especially the ones who drafted stars that aren't performing, are very reluctant to ditch the stars they have an emotional connection to. This makes people unwilling to trade an under-performing Roddy White and his 119 yards and 1 in exchange for Mario Manningham and his 300 yards and 2 TDs.
The evidence is there that Manningham is a more reliable receiver than White. White has struggled since the addition of Tony Gonzalez. Worse, the Atlanta offense didn't struggle until they played the Patriots while White was offering little contribution. Yes, they probably used their bye week to figure out how to get him more involved.

Roddy White was ranked as a top 4 WR (in my book, anyway) in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 80th. Manningham wasn't even actually ranked in the preseason. He's currently ranked about 7th. So, really, isn't it foolish NOT to trade for him if you're a White owner? If you have legit playoff aspirations, you simply can't hold on to, or keep starting, players that simply aren't producing. Fantasy football is played with numbers, not emotions or projections.

Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em: Week 4

Abridged version this week. Start your studs. All of them. No matter what the matchup is. Unless they're on a bye week.

Ride 'Em:

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - He's playing against the worst pass defense in the league in Detroit.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - It's tough to run on Tennessee, but they give up big plays in the passing game and lots of TDs through the air.

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - St. Louis has a horrid defense all around. It's pretty amazing they keep drafting defensive players, but still never get better...

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Cleveland's run defense is god-awful.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Houston's run defense is god-awful-er.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - He's finally gonna have a good game!

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Shootout is likely in this one and Marshall is due for another good game.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC - See David Garrard, above.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Matt Schaub is going to find whoever ISN'T being covered by CB Asomugha.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Detroit's defense is still poor against the pass.

Anthony Fasano, TE, MIA - Buffalo is the worst in the league against the TE.

Kevin Boss, TE, NYG - Hasn't shown it yet, but a breakout could happen this weekend.

Rest 'Em:

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - NYG pass rush is fierce and Bowe might be out again.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Miami is good against the run and now he shares the load with Lynch.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Minnesota is good against the run and this could be the Aaron Rodgers show.

Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Shredded Pittsburgh last time, but LT is back.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - He's facing a Chargers D that is very good against the pass, and Pittsburgh may run all day against crippled defensive front.

Marques Colston, WR, OAK - Likely matched up against Revis all day, meaning poor numbers and few targets.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL - Still kind of overrated and Denver's pass defense has been pretty good.

John Carlson, TE, IND - Indy is really good against TEs and Seattle should be trying to run it down their throats most of the day.

It's Week 4, They are (not) who you thought they were.

Sorry I haven't been active the last few days (Jewish High Holidays, family issues) but I'm back.
So, it's week 4. You've got three weeks of data to use when trying to set your fantasy lineups this week. By now, you know who can throw, catch and run, and who can play defense. Of course, with extra information, you get bye weeks. Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia and Atlanta are all off this week. These are fantasy juggernaut teams, littered with first and second-round picks. Which means you need to turn to some waiver wire pickups, some fantasy underachievers and some otherwise undesirable players to help your fantasy team to victory.

Strong Plays

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Ahmad Bradshaw is hurting and KC offers little resistance. He's under-achieved so far, but he should have a second consecutive strong outing this week.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Could be great against a poor Detroit pass defense. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are strong plays, as well. Even the much-maligned Matt Forte should have a decent game, in spite of Detroit having a stronger-than-expected run defense.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - Oakland is much better against the pass than the run, so I could see him having his first 100-yard game this week, and maybe a TD or two.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Cincinnati has been running effectively, and he even did well against Pittsburgh last week. A TD is almost guaranteed and a hundred yards seems very likely.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Tennessee is absolutely terrible against the pass, so I think good things are in store for him, Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis this week.

Glen Coffee, RB, SF - He's getting a full workload this week with Gore sidelined with an injury and the Rams have proven they can be run on.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - They're having a hard time moving the ball through the air, so Moreno and backfield mate Correll Buckhalter should get lots of touches this week.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - The Houston (poor excuse for a) defense has surrendered two of the biggest fantasy games of the year to running backs this season. At the very least, he should have 100 yards of total offense.

Don't Buy the Hype on:

Vernon Davis, TE, SF - I think it was Minnesota's coverage schemes that allowed Davis to get open and score twice last week. Lots of owners rushed to pick him up, but don't feel bad if you missed out on him. I have my doubts that he'll repeat this week.

Jason Campbell, QB, WAS and Santana Moss, WR, WAS - Detroit was the most beatable pass defense in the league last year and they haven't done anything to show it's improved this year. Yeah, Moss went off last week, and Campbell played well enough to win a few people their leagues, but unless you are absolutely desperate (Own Matt Hasselbeck AND Donovan McNabb, for example, and missed out on Kevin Kolb) you don't start this guy. Sorry, I don't like the Redskins offense even a little.

Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Don't love him this week even a little. All the signs are there for him to have a 2-3 INT game. #1. It's a revenge game for him, meaning he might try to squeeze some throws in that he otherwise wouldn't attempt. #2. He has thrown only one pick this year, but this defense robbed similar QB Jay Cutler 4 times in week 1. #3. Adrian Peterson could have a good day running the ball as GB gives up a lot on the ground. Bottom line: Just because he was the hero last week, doesn't mean he's into your starting lineups this week.

I'll have more fantasy advice and info later this week, and my Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em will come out early this week, as I'll be out of town Saturday and Sunday.