Sunday, September 27, 2009

Sunday Quick Hits

3:47 left in the 2nd Quarter of the Houston vs. Jacksonville Game:
- One of the great things about owning a piece (or several pieces) of the Houston passing offense is how horrible their defense is. Schaub and the Houston offense in the last 6 quarters have changed leads consistently, which leads to plenty of opportunities for the passing game to shine.
- Kevin Walter is having a nice first game back from injury. Hopefully the aforementioned defense continues to hemorrhage points, meaning more work for the offense.
- Frank Gore has been the best rusher in the NFL through the first two weeks. But he left the game Saturday against Minnesota in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Add Glen Coffee immediately if you're a Gore owner, because if the injury lingers, Gore's not going to be easy to replace.
- Kyle Boller replaced Marc Bulger at QB for the Rams today. Bulger sustained an injury, but this was coming for a long time, in my opinion. He immediately led the Rams on two nice scoring drives. This could be the situation Boller was missing in Baltimore, so he's a guy to keep your eye on in deep leagues.
- Detroit is shutting out Washington right now. Yeah, Washington might be the NEW worst team in the league. If you own Santana Moss or, really, any Redskin offensive players, sell them off cheap (if you can). Or feel free to drop them. I have no problem with that.
- ON CUE: Jason Campbell passed to Santana Moss for a 57-yard touchdown. Hmph. Still, it's against the Lions. Sell while the price is moderately above low.
- Andre Johnson doesn't play great against the Jags, for whatever reason. He's doing okay today, but Shaub now has 3 TD passes, none of them went to Johnson. Schaub is the poor man's Drew Brees, I think, as he's got nothing specific going on in the run game.
- Tony Gonzalez is without a catch in the first half against the Pats. I'm not watching closely, but they don't appear to be targeting him. Michael Turner scored in that game, which makes me feel better about him.
- Donald Driver is officially no longer underrated. In consecutive weeks, he's scored along with plenty of yards.
- Adrian Peterson has 11 rushes for only 59 yards. Chris Johnson has 10 rushes for 48 yards. These were the two top scoring RBs in weeks 1 and 2. Goes to show how unpredictable the NFL really is.
- I still think that San Francisco and Minnesota is a playoff preview. They both play great defense and you can't expect great things from your players against these defenses.
- Brandon Jacobs has officially joined the 2009 season with a TD and 70 yards on 20 attempts. But Ahmad Bradshaw still looks like the better option at RB for the Giants. He has 8 carries for 81 yards and has run with more authority. UPDATE: Jacobs is inching toward 100 yards, but he's doing it 2 yards at a time.
- Willis McGahee is a consistency king. 2 TDs in three straight weeks.
- I doubt you need to be told, but keep playing your RBs against Houston. Maurice Jones-Drew just scored his second TD of the day and has 81 yards rushing. It's gonna be like this for a while, I think (hope).
- Steve Smith (the Little Giant, as I want to call him) seems like the receiver to own in New York, especially in PPR leagues. He's got 7 catches for 68 yards and just converted on 3rd Down. Eli likes him in those situations.
- The Giants have 22 first downs right now. The Bucs? 1. Seriously. 1. Giants have a good defense, but ONE first down in 3 quarters? Bench Leftwich, PLEASE!!
- Kelley Washington has a quiet 5 catches for 66 yards for Baltimore. He's been something of a favorite target for Joe Flacco. And he made a great adjustment and nearly hauled in a poorly thrown ball in the end zone.
- Percy Harvin has 3 TDs in 3 NFL games. He just returned a kickoff for 101 yards. I'll do all I can to sit him next week, so everyone else can continue to reap the benefits.
- DeSean Jackson is someone you start each week from here out. He's got 6 catches for 149 yards and a TD. It doesn't matter who's throwing to him, he's okay.
- Tony Gonzalez finally got his first catch! It was for 16 yards. Woo!
- MJD is over the century mark and has three TDs. One would assume that Darren McFadden has a big game in his VERY near future, right?
- Derrick Mason just joined DeSean Jackson and Santana Moss as 100+ yard receivers. Joe Flacco hit him for a 72-yard score, giving Flacco 342 yards on the day.
- Josh Johnson is in at QB for the Bucs. See? People listen when I blog!
- Kevin Kolb just threw his second TD of the game. He's also run for one. Brent Celek now has over 100 yards on 8 catches, and a TD. Not bad for a guy you could have found on waivers after your draft.
- Flacco's day is done in Baltimore. Another week, another 30+ points. A visit to the field from Troy Smith. This team is scary, but they haven't exactly faced the best competition yet, have they? Have they even faced mediocre competition yet?
- Vernon Davis has two TDs against Minnesota and 88 yards on 6 catches. This guy was in the dog house last year, but apparently the new, improved Davis is playing well and getting red zone attention.
- 7:04 to go in the fourth quarter in Houston, and I'm excited to maybe see another Matt Schaub drive for a game-tying TD. He got sacked on the last possession and maybe the hit will get in his head. It will have to be a long drive if he hopes to tie the game. The Texans are starting at their own 11.
- It was one completion and out for the Texans, as Schaub got sacked again, this time by Clint Ingram on third down. MJD and the Jags can bleed some clock and with a few first downs, they could run it out.
- Mostly garbage time stuff, but Matt Cassel has 2 TDs, too. Only 90 yards passing, though. The Eagles secondary is tough, and without his best receiver, it's been a rough day for KC.
- John Kuhn (formerly of the Steelers, now of the Packers) has 2 short TDs today. You couldn't possibly have predicted that, and no one expects to see that again, so don't get excited.
- Keary Collins just turned it over for the second time today. It's the fourth turnover of the day for Tennessee. If they can't hold onto the ball, they'll have no shot at winning another GAME much less the division.
- Not sure if I mentioned this already, but Mark Sanchez is having a useful fantasy day. He's thrown 2 TDs and rushed for one more, but he's also turned the ball over twice.
-2:00 left in New York and the Jets hold a 7-point lead. Titans ball on their own 33 yard line and it's 3rd down and 23 yards. 2 incomplete passes by Collins. Turnover on downs.
- The Texans got one more chance to get back into this game, but they made the mistake of trusting one of their RBs at the goal line. Chris Brown fumbled this time. This is good news for no one. It means that teams will start ripping at the ball more often and playing the pass near the goal line.
- One of the worst feelings you can have in fantasy football is being up while your opponent still has players left. It's truly awful. I'm up by nearly 70 right now, but if Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, and John Carlson go off (and Lewis Murphy plays adequately) I could be cooked. Boy, I wish Houston's coaches would have called a pass play near the goal line...

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week 3

Cleveland at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:
Ravens Defense - Jamaal Lewis is doubtful, thus eliminating all Cleveland offensive threats.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - A good matchup, but they might just decide to run the ball all day...

Rest 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - After two weeks he's pretty much shown that last year wasn't the fluke year we all thought it was.

Washington at Detroit
Ride 'Em:
Santana Moss, WR, WAS - If he can't do it here, he's not gonna do it anywhere (indoor, fast track, lousy secondary on bad defense)

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - Detroit wants to run the ball, and Steven Jackson put up 104 on them last week on 17 carries.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - I try not to be obvious with my picks because if you have him you, you start him. But this matchup should be great unless DT Haynesworth becomes dominant again.

Rest 'Em:
Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - Portis may be seriously showing his age. He's questionable and even if he plays, Detroit did an okay job of defending Adrian Peterson, so is Portis going to be better?

Jacksonville at Houston
Ride 'Em:
Torry Holt, WR, JAC - I've got a feeling that he scores here. Nate Washington did it last week against the Texans.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Jacksonville has been fairly brutal against the pass, so far. No reason to expect that to change here.

Rest 'Em:
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU and Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Slaton needs a week on your bench after catching fumble-itis... Just make sure it's not contagious. Walter is just coming back from injury and still hasn't made it through a full week of practice... Don't rush him back until he plays a full game.

San Francisco at Minnesota
Ride 'Em:
Brett Favre, QB, MIN - It's not going to be easy to run on the Niners. The short passing game will work okay, though, and that's Favre's specialty right now.

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - It's not going to be easy to run on the Vikes. The short to intermediate passing game will work okay, though. These teams really are mirrors of each other. This could be an NFC Title game preview.

Rest 'Em:
Frank Gore, RB, SF - I was up on him last week and he produced big time, but unfortunately, it's not quite as easy to run on Minnesota.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - Scores in two straight weeks. I don't really expect that to continue, as he's only getting a few looks per game.

Atlanta at New England
Ride 'Em:
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL - The Patriots pass defense has been very beatable. Actually, their defense as a whole has been very beatable. Ryan should exploit some holes in the secondary.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Turner could beat down this front seven for a while, then break some big runs as long as they stay with the run.

Rest 'Em:
Any Patriots you have - I'm so sick of the Patriots coaching staff announcing injuries that aren't there and not announcing injuries that ARE there. I can't deal with it. Randy Moss, Wes Welker are both listed as questionable, but I expect at least Moss will play. It could be worse, at least it's an early game...

Kansas City at Philadelphia
Ride 'Em:
Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI - Put up some decent numbers last week. Plus, the nonexistent KC pass rush shouldn't hurt his cause.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Well, someone needs to do well on the KC offense. Colston had two TDs last week, so he has a chance.

Rest 'Em:
Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - Surprise! He's hurting and he's probably lacking explosiveness and won't actually be needed.

Green Bay at St. Louis
Ride 'Em:
Greg Jennings, WR, GB - St. Louis pass rush is weak and he had a poor game against Cincinnati last week, so I expect him to play with a vengeance in this game.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Cedric Benson put up 141 against the Packers last week, so the explosive Jackson could have a chance if they don't get behind too early.

Rest 'Em:
Donnie Avery, WR, STL - He hasn't done anything noticeable this season and GB secondary is good.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:
Eli Manning, QB, NYG - He's on fire, and the Bucs don't have a good defense anymore. His emerging targets should continue to produce, too.

Derrick Ward, RB, TB - He's starting this game with Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham hurting, so he's got a chance to produce if he gets 20 carries, even against stout defense.

Rest 'Em:
Byron Leftwich, QB, TB - Bad matchup against phenomenal pass rush. He's been doing well, but lack of mobility hurts against speedy rushers.

Tennessee at New York Jets
Ride 'Em:
Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ - Tennessee's vulnerable through the air and not much else... And QB Sanchez may use him a security blanket along with RB Washington.

Rest 'Em:
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - After a historic game last week, the speedster might get held in check against a Jets defense that hasn't allowed a TD yet.

New Orleans at Buffalo
Ride 'Em:
Marques Colston, WR, NO - Drew Brees said he trusts him more than any of his other receivers, and I trust him more than Buffalo's secondary.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Last chance to make an impact before Lynch returns, and Buffalo will need to play ball-control if they want to keep up with NO offense.

Rest 'Em:
Either team's defense - Both had decent games in recent weeks, but unusable here as this will likely be a shootout.

Chicago at Seattle
Ride 'Em:
John Carlson, TE, SEA - Seneca Wallace starting means a conservative offense, but Carlson should still be active and productive.

Rest 'Em:
Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - Seattle defense and homefield advantage will make it tougher on Cutler in this one.

Denver at Oakland
Ride 'Em:
Broncos Defense - Russell hasn't been playing well at all, they produced some sacks against Cleveland and Oakland is missing G Gallery.

Rest 'Em:
Any Raiders offensive player - RB Darren McFadden looked uninspired against the Chiefs, WR Louis Murphy is unreliable and TE Zach Miller didn't have a catch. I expect better this week, but not much.

Miami at San Diego
Ride 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - SD Defense has some injuries and Brown has to be considered the straw that stirs Miami's drink.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - Really, I just like touting this guy. You probably got him in the 5th or 6th round, but are getting 2nd round production from him. Love it.

Rest 'Em:
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, MIA - Over 100 yards last week, but he wasn't as good as the box score. He dropped a lot of balls, and was unreliable in the red zone, too.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:
Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Historically, if there's a game against the Bengals, Parker gets into gear against them.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - He's could be a good play as he usually does really well in his home state of Ohio.

Rest 'Em:
Pittsburgh Defense - Holding the score down, but not causing a ton of sacks or turnovers, and less explosive without S Polamalu.

Indianapolis at Arizona
Ride 'Em:
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Had a poor outing last week, but should be more involved in offense this week. Only potential problem: He's had a hard time with CB McFadden in the past ('05 playoffs)

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Colts can be run on and Wells fumbled his way out of carries last week, so expect a decent game from Hightower.

Rest 'Em:
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, RBs, IND - Arizona plays pretty good run defense at home, so tough to expect much from this duo.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Spin-juries: Down Goes Barber

One big injury this week:

Injury: Marion Barber, RB, DAL - He was off to the races Sunday night, on his way to scoring his second TD of the night when everything turned to suck. He keeled over, untouched by a defender, and grabbed his leg. This wasn't pretty.

Spin: Barber will likely miss 1-2 weeks as a result of a quad strain. It's bad news for his owners, unless they managed to secure Felix Jones and/or Tashard Choice as his backup. If Jones can get 15-20 carries, he's practically a must-start, as he's a threat to score any time he touches the ball. The worse news for Barber owners is that Jones has a really good chance to excel while Barber's out. That means more carries for Jones, even when Barber returns.

Double Takes: Reviewing Week 2

I just want to take a second to let you bask in the glory of this week and the beauty of fantasy football. It changes so much from week to week. I can truly say that I DON'T hate to say "I Told You So!"

So, if you had a poor week one and rebounded for a huge week 2, you shouldn't be surprised. Brace yourself, because this is how the whole season tends to go.

Players who Wow-ed:

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - This guy is so All-World it hurts. Also, Houston's general apathy when he lined up on the outside helped tremendously. Don't expect such ridiculous numbers again, but he should have some more big games throughout the rest of the season.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Apparently, the Jets Defense IS that good. Being away from Darrelle Revis helped Andre Johnson break out again for 10 catches and 149 yards, to go along with 2 TDs. You drafted him to be a stud, and a stud he was.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - This just in: passing is possible against the Titans. After allowing 363 yards to Ben Roethlisberger in week 1, TEN allowed 357 yards to Schaub and he had easily the best day of any QB, with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

Frank Gore, RB, SF - 207 yards on the ground against the Seahawks and 2 TDs. The Niners appear to be committed to the run, so his numbers shouldn't come as a surprise, nor should you expect them to drop off down the line. A minor injury late may scare some owners, but don't worry about it too much.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - 155 total yards and a touchdown against a very stout defense. He might have had another TD, too, but he apparently injured his hamstring on a run in the fourth quarter. Felix Jones becomes very valuable if Barber has to miss time.

Willis McGahee, RB, BAL - Unfortunately, he probably wasn't in your lineup. But, he's clearly the goal-line back in Baltimore, and he's going to continue to get playing time. Baltimore has some juicy matchups down the line, so look to acquire McGahee for a bye-week fill-in.

Mario Manningham and Steve Smith, WRs, NYG - Each had 10 catches, over 130 yards, and a TD. The running game wasn't working at all, so they were used on screens instead of a traditional handoff running game, especially Manningham. He's elusive and if Dominik Hixon's injury is serious, Manningham is an interesting add.

Marques Colston, WR, NO - Drew Brees is going to throw. He's going to throw a lot. He's going to throw a lot for Marques Colston. Obviously you can't complain, but an extra 2 yards would have pushed him over 100 yards, meaning yardage bonuses. Still, you can't argue with 2 TDs.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - You probably drafted him as a number 2 or 3 receiver, but you have to be pleasantly surprised by his #1 receiver-type numbers.

Players who Failed:

Greg Jennings, WR, GB - In what was allegedly an excellent matchup, he didn't manage a single catch. Credit the Bengals secondary and the Packer's O-line play for shutting him out.

Tom Brady, QB, NE - Yeah, even the incomparable Tom Brady is capable of having a poor outing now and again. He went up against an elite defense, so don't worry about this performance. Better days are ahead.

Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI - 66 yards and an injury. Weak sauce. And maybe look to get LeSean McCoy if he's available.

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - 53 total yards after a 100-yard, 2 TD performance. Not a very good encore, especially considering what Fred Jackson did to them last weekend.

Randy Moss, WR, NE - If we've learned one thing so far this season, it's that Darrelle Revis is one HELL of a cover corner. He shuts down even the most elite receivers.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - 93 total yards, but he failed to cross the end zone, and losing a fumble hurts a lot.

Shocker of the Week:

Julian Edelman, WR, NE - 8 catches, 98 yards. Filling in for Wes Welker, Edelman was very good. Actually, I thought his numbers didn't do him justice and he could have been even better. He ran with some authority after the catch and he had some really slick moves. In a strange twist, he's also QB-eligible and owned in virtually 0% of fantasy leagues. If you are without Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck (or both), and you're in a PPR league, he might be worth a flier.

Monday Night Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em:

Ride 'Em:
Peyton Manning, QB, IND - Slinging the ball should be necessary against a Miami defense that is better at defending the run.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Duh. After that week 1, what's he going to do for an encore now that he's the only man in town.

Rest 'Em:
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - Seems like Miami will have to pass to keep up with Manning's offense.

Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, MIA - He wasn't good last week, and he's not getting deep on the Colts.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week Two

Carolina at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:
Atlanta Defense - Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and lost an interception last week against Philly. You decide what to do.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Atlanta's fast track won't hurt him, and we all know no one can overthrow him...

Rest 'Em:
Carolina Defense - Matt Ryan is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks, Roddy White and Michael Turner had semi-lousy games last week. My bet is that one of them (or all of them) go off this week.

Minnesota at Detroit
Ride 'Em:
Kevin Smith, RB, DET - He's got hands and they like to get him into the passing game, which is good because he's not gonna do much on the ground against the Vikings.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Big-time comeback this week after no catches last week.

Rest 'Em:
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Wow, total shocker, right? Yeah, that's because if you DO somehow sit this guy, I'll personally come and delete your team. You. Will. Fail. If. You. Sit. Him.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN - Maybe a cheap TD, but he won't be needed much, so maybe find someone better.

Cincinnati at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:
Cedrick Benson, RB, CIN - Cincy is still pretty committed to the run and will try to win time of possession game by pounding with Cedric 25+ times.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Comeback player of the year? Maybe a mention after a big game for the second week in a row.

Rest 'Em:
Donald Driver, WR, GB - Bengal corners are large, fast and underrated (as I've said before). Don't expect much from Driver, but Jennings may get deep a few times against weak safeties.

Arizona at Jacksonville
Ride 'Em:
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Arizona doesn't defend the run well on the road, Jacksonville will need to kill clock to keep it close against good offense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - After a poor game last week, injury should be better and impact should be big on offense.

Rest 'Em:
Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Don't buy into the 12-catch game last week. He may end up being a good receiver, but don't risk it with anything above a third RB or flex position until you see consistency.

Oakland at Kansas City
Ride 'Em:
Larry Johnson, RB, KC - No definitive word on Cassel yet, so Larry may carry the load.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, OAK - Anyone see what Joe Flacco did last week when there was no pass rush against him? I'll buy Russell this week, I think.

Rest 'Em:
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Still think he'll get a few catches, but Oakland's pass defense is tougher now with Seymour and Asomugha.

New England at New York Jets
Ride 'Em:
Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Welker is out so he should be Brady's go-to receiver on Sunday as Moss will be tied up with CB Revis, and QB eligible/

Kevin Faulk, RB, NE - Against blitz he could get some dumpoffs and turn them into yards and scores.

Rest 'Em:
NYJ Defense - Not against Brady, and could be in trouble if QB Sanchez throws a pick in a bad spot.

Randy Moss and Wes Welker, WRs, NE - Jets CB Revis shut down Andre Johnson last week and he'll stay on Moss as Welker sits with an injury.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
Ride 'Em:
Any offensive player in this game has a good shot to score for New Orleans.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Saints defense is nothing spectacular, and Philly may have to throw to keep up. With Kolb at QB, Celek and Westbrook may become his best receivers.

Rest 'Em:
Either team defense.

Houston at Tennessee
Ride 'Em:
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - He didn't run as poorly as it looked against Steelers, breaking a few big ones. And Houston's D is nothing compared to Pittsburgh.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - He's reportedly looked decent at practice, and Roethlisberger looked good when he had protection last week.

Rest 'Em:
Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - He's run well against them in the past, but Titans run defense looks stouter than ever.

St. Louis at Washington
Ride 'Em:
Washington Defense - Marc Bulger is still not fantastic and he doesn't have any real threatening weapons except SJax, who will have to deal with Albert Haynesworth all day long.

Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - If you were on the fence about starting him after a struggle in Week 1, hang your doubts and watch him rack up points with punishing yards and probably TDs this week.

Rest 'Em:
Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Look, he's talented, but he's only ever had ONE really great season. And he looked a little slow to me against Seattle. If he catches the ball, maybe he'll be okay, but LaRon Landry is lurking and WAS secondary is vicious and fast.

Seattle at San Francisco
Ride 'Em:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - SF's corners are overrated, but I kind of expect a few turnovers with SF blitz packages.

Frank Gore, RB, SF - Last week I was down on him and he scored twice. This week, I don't expect great results, but give me a TD and 5 or 6 catches and yardage around 90-100.

Rest 'Em:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA - Still not sure he breaks out against a good linebacker corps. Still, 5-7 catches, but not huge yards. TD unlikely.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Ride 'Em:
Cadillac Williams, RB, TB - He looked great on more than a few runs on Sunday against Dallas and the O-line was blocking well. That should continue this week with LB Posluszney out.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Face it, he IS their offense right now.

Rest 'Em:
Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - Still not buying it, but CB Barber is aging and he may very likely draw T.O. assignment.

Pittsburgh at Chicago
Ride 'Em:
Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT - I have believed in Santonio since he was a senior at Ohio State. He's rarely disappointed... Except when I drafted him last year and he never broke 100 yards and scored only from my bench. Argh. One year too early, I guess.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Shifty runners like Forte seem to mess with the Steelers, and he'll be used after a lightweight performance last week. Usually I recommend sitting a RB against Pittsburgh, but without Polamalu, it's just a different defense.

Rest 'Em:
Devin Hester, WR, CHI - CB Ike Taylor is nearly as fast as Hester and much taller, which could mean a long day for Hester... or a long TD.

Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Until further notice, all Pittsburgh rushers are off-limits.

Cleveland at Denver
Ride 'Em:
Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Had a TD taken off the board against Minnesota and QB Quinn seemed to be looking for him.

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Okay, I know I used this last week, but in Week 2 last year, he had 18 FREAKING CATCHES!!

Rest 'Em:
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Even AP was well contained for a half against Cleveland last week, and Moreno will only get half of the carries, if that much.

Baltimore at San Diego
Ride 'Em:
Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - Dwayne Bowe caught a short TD for KC last week, so maybe VJax can duplicate his effort.

Ravens Defense - I see Rivers throwing a Pick-6 in the direction of Ed Reed this week, who will drop back a lot without threat of Tomlinson for SD.

Rest 'Em:
Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Timing is everything, so it's unfortunate timing that LT got hurt and Sproles gets a tough matchup against Ravens. Against most teams he'd be a stud.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Ride 'Em:
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, RBs, NYG - Easy to see them doing well against a Dallas Defense that allowed a TD each to Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams.

NYG Defense - That D-line looks fiercer than ever before, and although Romo is elusive, count on a few sacks and a turnover or two.

Rest 'Em:
Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Well, it's not that I think he'll have a bad game, but I don't think he'll have time to get deep with NYG pass rush in Romo's face all day.

More Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em tomorrow when I'll break down the Monday Night game between the Colts and Dolphins.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Had a Bad Week 1? Don't panic!

So, you're sitting in last place after one week and you scored just about the fewest points in the league.

Believe it or not, I am in that position. But, luckily there is a virtually fool-proof way to make sure you don't stay in the basement:
DON'T BLOW YOUR TEAM UP AFTER ONE WEEK!

Here's some studs that had a poor showing in week one, but should rebound and lead your team to victory:

Michael Turner, RB, ATL - 65 yards rushing is fairly underwhelming for a top 3 pick, but he's in a good offense that likes to run and he should not be held down for long.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Jacobs knows he didn't run hard enough and will be motivated to get better this week. After seeing how Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams did against Dallas last week, Jacobs should see inflated numbers. After all, everything's bigger in Texas, especially stats and Jacbos is super-sized to begin with.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Don't worry about his meager 57 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh, he looked really good on a few runs and broke a few long ones against one of the toughest defenses in the league. And now he gets to play against Houston and we all saw what Thomas Jones did to them last week (104 rush yards, 2TDs). Rebound central.

Clinton Portis, RB, WSH - After a fairly weak performance against a stout NYG defense, he should rebound nicely against the Shams... I mean, Rams this weekend. They allowed Julius Jones (career underachiever) 117 yards on the ground. Enjoy a physical performance from Portis this week.

Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - The whole offensive line was dominated against the Jets, who happen to play a pretty mean style of defense, if you hadn't noticed. This could happen to anyone. Slaton's schedule isn't very friendly as he draws Tennessee this weekend, but don't give up on him too early. His playoff schedule is among the friendliest in the league for fantasy, and the road softens significantly when the bye weeks start.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - See Slaton, Steve. As soon as the offensive line gives Matt Schaub a little time to throw, Johnson will resume his stud status, and his playoff schedule is incredible.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Quarterback issues aside, Smith is still a stud and will still get his catches and yards. Philadelphia was a tough matchup and Jake Delhomme was a mess again. But, either he'll improve, or they'll find other ways of getting Smith the ball. No worries... yet.

Roddy White, WR, ATL - Atlanta was busy trying out their new toy in Tony Gonzalez and playing stellar defense and White's production suffered as a result. Gonzalez's presence shouldn't be a detriment to him in the long run, but you still can't expect a whole lot of touchdowns from him.

Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI - An injury kept Boldin from being his normal, dominant self, but he'll be healed soon and Arizona's passing offense will wake up and realize they're still elite. Tim Hightower will probably never out-catch Boldin again.

Dallas Clark, TE, IND - With the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, Clark is clearly the second option in Manning's attack, behind only Reggie Wayne. Don't fret, his game will pick up soon, and he's traditionally not the fastest starter, but he winds up just fine.

Eddie Royal, WR, DEN - In PPR leagues, this guy was a real disappointment. He pulled in only 2 receptions, and was barely a factor. Use that information to try to get him cheaply this week. He's going to be fine, I think, but the Bengals corners are underrated and physically larger, leading to his problems this week. He should find more openings against Cleveland and will be helped out if the running game picks up.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - See Slaton, Steve and Johnson, Andre. The Jets play good defense and after Tennessee this weekend (assuming he can stay healthy) the schedule gets much softer and Schaub should be able to stand in the pocket and pick his targets easily. It's just a matter of his staying healthy through this weekend; no guarantee against the tough D-line of the Titans.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - The coaching staff should address Cutler's inability to throw the ball away on a busted play and he may throw only 3 interceptions against the Steelers this weekend, but after that he's got some fantasy-friendly defenses coming up, including a juicy Week 4 matchup with Detroit and it's paper mache defense and hopefully a shootout with Arizona in November.

Remember, it's just one week. While the temptation may be there to blow up the team and sell off those who didn't perform, the payoff is almost never worth it. The idea (as I've said before) is to Buy Low, Sell High.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

From the Wild World of the Waiver Wire

All alliteration aside, there are some names out there that simply shouldn't be. Go pick up Mike Bell if he's available before you even finish reading this post.

...

Seriously, go.

Okay, good. Now, for more pickups.

Louis Murphy, WR, OAK - Murphy had a fairly useful game on Monday night. He would have had 2 TDs and over 100 yards if his touchdown late in the first half against San Diego hadn't been overturned by replay. I know tying your receiver's fate to JaMarcus Russell isn't the most pleasing prospect, but he's got to throw to someone, right? The Raiders look significantly less suck-ish than I thought they would, so Murphy might be worth something as a 4th or maybe even third receiver.

Chansi Stuckey, WR, NYJ - Again, people reluctant to get WRs that have unproven QBs, but Sanchez looked pretty good against the Texans on Sunday. Okay, fine, so that proves nothing, but he did lay a beautiful deep ball there for an easy TD to Stuckey, and that wasn't his only time targeting him, as Chansi reeled in four catches. No lame "take a 'chance' on Chansi" word play, although I admit, I do like to do that sometimes.

Michael Clayton, WR, TB - Maybe this is the year Clayton re-lives his rookie season brilliance. And all it took was some fastballs from Byron Leftwich. 5 catches, 94 yards, that's not terrible in fantasy and he's tall enough that he could get some red zone targets, too. Don't hesitate to add him, because he's got a Buffalo defense this week that was eaten alive by Randy Moss and Wes Welker last week. Clayton could build on his week one success and you could reap the benefits.

Carnell Williams, RB, TB - I liked the Tampa Bay offense this week (or maybe just a weak Dallas defense?) but Williams is owned in far to few leagues (17 percent of yahoo leagues). 97 yards and a TD on only 13 carries and he's available. Derrick Ward also had a serviceable game for fantasy owners with 83 yards of total offense and a TD of his own. If this timeshare (involving only 2 backs, we hope) works out like this each week, owners will have this year's version of Chris Johnson/LenDale White from last season. And I have to admit, I like that prospect.

Mike Bell, RB, NO - Anyone who gets 28 carries against Detroit should have a good game. Bell was exactly that. Good. Not great, but certainly earned himself some more carries with his 5.3 yards per carry. Yes, it was against Detroit. No, I don't expect him to repeat such numbers again consistently, but Pierre Thomas' knees are not good for standing, so Bell will continue to have value. If he DOES manage to get the starting job full-time (a Pierre Thomas injury or something) he'll have a decent playoff schedule (@Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay) and could be instrumental in helping the Saints run out the clock in those games. Only owned in 10 percent of yahoo leagues (including mine).

Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Didn't look awful against New England although he checked down to running backs and TEs waaaayyy more often than he probably should have. Still, he does have weapons, albeit weapons that he'll utilize slightly differently than they had been in the past (**coughTcoughO**). Anyway, Edwards did just fine avoiding turnovers and running the no-huddle (well, that's debatable) and he threw two TDs, so he's not a bad bye-week fill-in.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - He was probably taken in your league, but he's still available in 70 percent of all leagues on yahoo. He was great in his second season debut, throwing early and often and accurately, for the most part, even picking up a few rushing yards. Yea, it was against KC, but a strong performance none the less. Maybe JaMarcus Russell throws 3 TDs against KC, too.

Atlanta Falcons Defense - Manhandled Miami for most of the game Sunday and this week they get to host Carolina and turnover-specialist Jake Delhomme. I don't expect Jake to be quite as erratic, but he'll probably still throw a few picks here or there and Atlanta should concentrate primarily on stopping the run. Only owned in 19 percent of yahoo leagues and a fairly great matchup this week.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week One

I'll pick a player or two from each team that you should ride to fantasy glory, or rest and send out someone else in their place.

Philadelphia at Carolina
Ride 'Em:

Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI - Carolina might have just enough offense to make this game into a shootout.

Mushin Muhammad, WR, CAR - No other receiver has stepped up to become a reliable #2 to Steve Smith, plus Muhammad's size makes him a decent bet to score against smaller Eagles corners.

Rest 'Em:

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Injury issues in the preseason make this a risky week to start him, unless you've got no other option.


Minnesota at Cleveland
Ride 'Em:

Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE - Motivated to make up for last year's shortcomings (read: drops) and Cleveland will need to throw often.

Minnesota Defense - Young QB and old RB starting for Cleveland, very few threats. Only thing that could derail them is an untimely Brett Favre interception.

Rest 'Em:

Brett Favre, QB, MIN - Brett likes to wait til week 2 to make an impact and although Cleveland's corners are weak, this feels like an AP All-Day kind of game.

Jamaal Lewis, RB, CLE - Old. Slow. Against the Williams brothers, and Vike's defensive front? No thank you.

Kansas City at Baltimore
Ride 'Em:

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - No one noteworthy rushing the passer on the Chief's D, nor anyone decent in secondary. Mason will play well, too.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - He's probably the only consistent player on KC, and the only one that warrants a start this week, but QB instability means you should temper your expectations.

Rest 'Em:

Matt Cassel, QB, KC - Injured and even if he DOES play, the Ravens D will likely feast on him.

Denver at Cincinnati
Ride 'Em:

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Yuck, but Denver's defense is weak, Cincy is committed to running and no one is taking carries from him. Worth a RB2.

Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - Most in your league probably stayed away from Marshall, but coming off suspension last year he had 18 catches. Encore anyone?

Rest 'Em:

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Palmer uncertain and will draw coverage from Champ Bailey (overrated but still good) all day.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Ride 'Em:

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Especially if Bob Sanders is out. This goes for Marcedes Lewis, too. Short passes, no INTs for Garrard.

Joseph Addai, RB, IND - Just have a feeling he's not going to be nearly as bad as everyone thought he would be. Not bad as an RB2 against an older D-line.

Rest 'Em:

Torry Holt, WR, JAC - Don't love him as he's aged poorly and probably not going to go for big gains as Garrard dinks and dunks around Indy.

Detroit at New Orleans
Ride 'Em:

Anyone New Orleans Player not Named Pierre - Detroit had the worst defense in the league last year. Ride 'em all.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - With a rookie QB, it's tough to think they won't at least TRY to run.

Rest 'Em:

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Out with an injury.

New York Jets at Houston
Ride 'Em:

Most Texans players - Houston has a loaded offense, in theory, anyway. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton should have decent to good games each week.

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - Houston also has a fairly weak defense (except for LB Ryans), and Jones (early in the season, anyway) shouldn't have a difficult time.

Rest 'Em:

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ - You weren't REALLY going to start him anyway, right?

Miami at Atlanta
Ride 'Em:

Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - I like him more than most, and I don't expect Williams to take away carries.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL - The new toy in Atlanta should be looked for frequently as they test out the new weapon.

Rest 'Em:

Ted Ginn Jr, WR, MIA - Nothing significant to show in 2 years, wait til he shows something before you gamble with him.

Dallas at Tampa Bay
Ride 'Em:

Felix Jones, RB, DAL - Breakaway threat anytime, and Tampa's defense is old and without a good coordinator.

Rest 'Em:

Tampa Bay Defense - The end of last year was the end of their greatness. Look elsewhere.

San Francisco at Arizona
Ride 'Em:

Shaun Hill, QB, SF - Arizona scores lots at home, so he'll be behind, meaning lots of throwing opportunities perhaps picking them apart in garbage time.

Any Cardinals Passing game threat - They score a ton, but Fitzgerald might succumb to Madden curse!

Rest 'Em:

Frank Gore, RB, SF - Seems like a stud, right? Arizona stops run well, especially at home. PPR league might be okay, though.

St. Louis at Seattle
Ride 'Em:

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA - Bounceback year starts against weak St. Louis secondary, with new WR Houshmandzadeh.

Rest 'Em:

Marc Bulger, QB, STL - No threats at receiver, no offensive line, no running game. Weak fantasy scorer, too.

Washington at New York Giants
Ride 'Em:

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Manning has few legit receivers and only threat on Washington's D is new DT Haynesworth.

Giants Defense - Pass rush should be dominant again, meaning sacks and turnovers will be abundant.

Rest 'Em:

Santana Moss, WR, WSH - As QB Campbell is pressured, he'll have less time to get open deep.

Chicago at Green Bay
Ride 'Em:

Green Bay Defense - Cutler has the potential for 4TDs or 4 turnovers.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI - Tony Scheffler had some great stats last year with Cutler at QB.

Rest 'Em:

Chicago Defense - With Hester more involved in offense, the special teams take a hit, devaluing the D/ST a ton.

Buffalo at New England
Ride 'Em:

Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - No one else in Buffalo worth starting.

Any Patriot involved in Passing game - Duh. Brady's back.

Rest 'Em:

Trent Edwards, QB, BUF - Like I said, no one else in Buffalo worth starting.

San Diego at Oakland
Ride 'Em:

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Now officially a starter and will be used in passing game, too.

Any Chargers you have - Um, Oakland is nothing on defense (unless Seymour magically appears) and Rivers and Tomlinson will come up big.

Rest 'Em:

JaMarcus Russell - Hasn't shown promise yet, so wait til he shows something before you risk it.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Ride 'Em or Rest 'Em: Week 1 Titans at Steelers

Opening night of the NFL season is upon us.
FINALLY.
In less than 48 hours, our waiting will be over and football season can begin again.
HOORAY!

For each game this season, I'll pick two players from each team that you should start (Ride 'Em) or sit (Rest 'Em). I'm using standard scoring here, so nothing fancy.

Week 1 Titans at Steelers

RIDE 'EM

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Roethlisberger has a track record. He always tends to play well (very well, in fact) in the first game of each season. Last year, he was 13 of 14 for 169 and 2 TDs against the Texans, he shredded Cleveland for 4 TDs in the opening game the previous year, and was 9-for-11 for 218 and 2 TDs against Tennessee to open 2005. He missed Week 1 in 2006. The offense somehow consistently starts the season great, so expect good numbers from Ben.
Projection: 20-for-28, 250 yards, 2-3 TDs, 0 INTs.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT - Hines was fairly dominant against the Titans last year and now he has the home fans to further fuel his fire. In Tennessee last year, he hauled in 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD. Maybe expecting 100 yards is unlikely, but the TD is not.
Projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

REST 'EM

LenDale White, RB, TEN - Although they each had about half the carries, LenDale White is clearly second fiddle to Chris Johnson. White had 48 yards at a TD last time, and while that isn't terrible, you should be able to find better. The Steelers have a stout run defense, and White ran his mouth after the last game. James Harrison is angry about that, and you don't want to make Harrison angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Projection: 12 rushes, 35 yards, 0 TDs

Kerry Collins, QB, TEN - Collins tends to follow up a good year with a fairly lousy one. It's happened at just about every stop (New York to Oakland to Tennessee). This is the start of another bad year, which could be good news for Vince Young (but don't play him, either... in fact, don't EVER play him until you get written permission from me to do so).
Projection: 14-for-28, 190 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.

Look out for more Ride 'Em, Rest 'Em before this weekend's games.